The mainstream market rose across the board last night, and the reason is simple. The U.S. Federal Circuit Court asked the U.S. SEC to revoke the previous order and review Grayscale's application to convert GBTC into an ETF. The reason is that Grayscale and NYSE Arca applied to convert GBTC into an ETF in 2021, and the U.S. SEC rejected the application in June 2022. Now the court has ruled to revoke the previous order. This means that in addition to Ripple's victory over the SEC this year, another company related to cryptocurrency has won the SEC, which is obviously a good start.
After Grayscale won the lawsuit, the anonymous founder of CryptoSea said on social media: "It may be that all other Bitcoin spot ETFs will be approved, it's just a matter of time. Spot ETFs mean that every share issued must be backed by actual Bitcoin at a 1:1 ratio. Given this requirement, I think this could be a catalyst for the start of a new bull market." It is obvious that if you participate in a Bitcoin spot ETF, the funds will be linked to Bitcoin at a 1:1 ratio. If more and more Bitcoin ETFs are approved, then a huge amount of funds will flow into the market to create the next big bull market.
The market has been sluggish recently. Except for a few altcoins, most mainstream currencies have been falling and trading sideways, with no profit effect at all. But Lao Gou told everyone two weeks ago that the current price may be a stage bottom. After nearly half a month, last night's pull-up once again confirmed Lao Gou's previous view.
From the beginning of the year to now, Lao Gou has always believed that the current stage is the early stage of the bull market and is suitable for stockpiling. Today, Lao Gou will simply sort out some data for your reference.
First, let's look at the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges. After the big drop in November last year, it is obvious that the outflow of Bitcoin is significantly higher than the inflow. It is obvious that this is the behavior of large investors buying Bitcoin on exchanges and transferring it to wallets. Then from early May to early July, the outflow of Bitcoin began to be significantly higher than the inflow. The price of the currency also broke through 30,000 and reached the highest point of this year. After the highest point, the price of the currency began to fall, and the market entered a flat period. The market then began to fall. However, from the data, the outflow of Bitcoin wallets is still slightly higher than the inflow, which also shows that there are not many people cashing out in the market now, and everyone is still in the stage of hoarding coins. Of course, it is also possible that the dealer is continuing to absorb funds.
Secondly, let's look at the Bitcoin 200-week heat map. When the price of Bitcoin is near or below the 200-week moving average, the price of Bitcoin is basically at a staged low. After that, the market will rise sharply. Obviously, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has been near or below the 200-week moving average most of the time, indicating that the current price is still at a staged low. So the view of the early bull market is not groundless.
Third, let's look at the Bitcoin AHR999 indicator. From the chart, when the price of Bitcoin is below or near the bottom line, the price of Bitcoin will rise in the future. Now the price of Bitcoin is still hovering near the bottom line, indicating that the price of Bitcoin is still at the bottom of the big cycle. Although the price may fall, when the market is at a high level in the future, the price of Bitcoin is still at the stage bottom.
Since the birth of cryptocurrency, there have been new currencies that have become popular in every stage, and there are also currencies that are still popular from ancient times to the present. At the same time, there are also former overlords that have fallen from the altar and are almost ignored. For example, EOS ETC HT, which were previously ranked in the top ten in market value, are now almost nowhere to be found in the rankings. From the current exchange holdings ranking, BTC ETH XRP is still in the top three, not to mention BTC and ETH, the old mainstream currencies have always ranked first and second. As an old mainstream currency, XRP has seen a significant increase in the number of investors after Ripple won the lawsuit, and is currently standing firm in the third place. BNB, as Binance's platform currency, stood out from many platform currencies in the last round of bull market and is still popular. BCH also got out of the quagmire after it was launched on the American exchange some time ago. As an ancient altcoin, DOGE became the king of MEME coins in the last bull market and still has a place in the mainstream market. The above six currencies are the six currencies with the largest investment and the largest number of traders in the market at this stage.
After looking at the periodic data, let's take a look at the current market trend. After the market rose last night, from the four-hour level, the highest price of Bitcoin broke through the upper side of the shock box and reached around 28142, but the price still did not stand firm in the box and continued to rise. However, from the four-hour level, the current selling pressure is not very large. If there is no particularly bad news, the price of the currency will most likely continue to rise. The short-term support is 26650.
From the daily level, Bitcoin closed with a big positive line yesterday, and the daily support level of 25166 is currently confirmed to be effective. However, from the indicator point of view, the price of the currency is still suppressed by the 30MA, and most indicators have entered the overbought range. If the price cannot continue to rise in volume in the short term, there is a need for a retracement. Therefore, we still need to pay attention to whether the price of the currency can stand above the four-hour 27921 box. If it stands firm, it is only a matter of time before it returns to 30000.
That's all for today. Thank you for your long-term support for Lao Gou~
