In a recent tweet, Luke Mikic, a well-known podcaster and YouTuber, highlighted the stark differences between the upcoming 2025 Bitcoin bull run and the previous bull runs in 2017 and 2021. Based on his insights and available data, here’s a deep dive into three reasons why the 2025 bull run will be different:
1. Computing power race: countries join the competition
“The Bitcoin hash rate is absolutely parabolic, breaking 400TH/s, breaking 400TH/s!” Mikic exclaimed. In fact, the Bitcoin network hash rate recently reached a record-breaking 414 EH/s, surging 80% over the past 12 months. This growth is particularly surprising given the energy challenges facing Texas and the rising costs of electricity around the world.
Mikic noted, “This is the first bear market where the hash rate hit a new ATH… Is this time different?” The answer appears to be a resounding yes. Countries are now mining Bitcoin openly (and perhaps privately).
El Salvador and Bhutan are the first to join the alliance, and recently, Oman has also joined. Oman's strategic move to mine Bitcoin is aimed at diversifying its economy away from oil dependence and supporting renewable energy plans, including reducing flaring gas emissions. It is worth noting that it is not clear whether more countries have been secretly mining Bitcoin without official announcement.
2. Supply asphyxiation
Historically, bear markets have seen a massive influx of Bitcoin into exchanges. However, the current situation paints a different picture. Mikic noted: “In every previous Bitcoin bear market, we saw an increase in the number of Bitcoins on exchanges. In 2015 – 800,000 coins, in 2018 – 900,000 coins, in 2022 – a decrease of 1 million since March 2020.”
According to Santiment, only 5.8% of Bitcoin is currently held on exchanges, the lowest level since December 17, 2017. In addition, Bitcoin’s exchange deposit volume (SMA 7-day) plummeted to a 5-year low of 30,798 BTC per day, a number reminiscent of December 11, 2016. The takeaway from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.? “People don’t want to sell Bitcoin. Supply shortages will continue to spur growth.”
3. Great Wall Accumulation
BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF application is a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s journey toward mainstream adoption. Mikic emphasized, “The Blackrock Bitcoin ETF application will be seen as a key moment in Bitcoin’s future mainstream adoption. Trillions of capital are now authorized to invest in Bitcoin.”
As the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock's entry could give the Bitcoin market unparalleled legitimacy. BlackRock could heavily promote Bitcoin and its new products, attracting new retail and institutional investors to Bitcoin.
Looking at the current stagnation in Bitcoin’s price, it is noteworthy that there is currently no new inflow of funds, as evidenced by the decreasing number of stablecoins in the ecosystem. Retail traders currently have no reason to return to the market at all during the longest bear market. However, events such as the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could suddenly change this situation and trigger a Bitcoin bull run (even before the halving).
In short, the Bitcoin bull run of 2025 will be unlike any other. With nation states joining the mining race, apparent supply shocks, and Wall Street giants like BlackRock showing interest, Mikic’s final words resonate strongly: “The bottom line: No one is optimistic enough.”
At press time, BTC is trading at $26,058.
