8/24 BTC market analysis:
The sensitive moment has arrived. Bitcoin rebounded wildly in the early morning, and many altcoins followed suit. Is it the return of the bull market or short-term risk aversion?
Hi, ladies and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat's Coins. Today's market analysis is late, but it doesn't matter, since the recent market trends all happen in the early hours of the morning anyway.
As of the time of posting, BTC is quoted at around 26400. Bitcoin rebounded quickly yesterday and reached 26800. I watched the market online at around 4 a.m. and saw that the rise was fierce at that time, showing signs of a bullish rebound. When the rebound began at 12 a.m., I searched many consulting websites but did not see any useful news that led to a positive market. It was not until today when I sorted out the data and news that I realized that what happened at the same time caused market sentiment. Because they were all major events that happened abroad, my news had a certain delay, and what happened was not directly related to the crypto market, so many consulting websites did not include it.
Yesterday's rebound went directly from 25800 to 26800, although there was a pause in the middle, but the subsequent increase was also very amazing. Of course, from a technical point of view, we can call it a normal rebound, because the daily Bollinger Bands of the market need to close to repair the pattern. But from a technical point of view, it is not enough to support such a large rebound in the market. In fact, the logic is very simple. For the market to rise, it needs the inflow of funds and the participation of traders. If it is just a technical rebound, will these funds and traders do this collectively? There is this factor, but the rebound is not realistic in the current market environment.
Of course, at some key points, we cannot rule out the main force's promotion, but this time we can clearly see that it is not the independent operation of the main dealer. The dealer is the one who takes advantage of the situation, and the main force is still the retail investors. Why do retail investors flow into the market in large numbers in the early morning? This is the international news I will talk about below.
The first point, which many people overlook, is Trump's surrender. Prior to this, the state of Georgia filed a lawsuit against Trump and 18 of his staff members, claiming that Trump manipulated the results of the US election so that he could still stay in the White House after losing the 20th election. Many people think that this is a war of words between the US local elections, but if Trump is convicted, the capital behind them will stir up a bigger storm. This is very important in the eyes of many sensitive people.
The second thing is a series of events. Leader Wagner was shot down and killed by a Russian anti-aircraft missile in Russia. At the same time, Ukraine announced that it would launch a large-scale attack on the Russian army today, and Russia would inevitably fight back. However, at the time of Leader Wagner's unexpected death, the situation would instantly become more complicated.
The third thing is that certain conspiracies continue to be brewed on the peninsula with obvious intentions. At the same time, the United States is evacuating its citizens from Belarus. If other countries continue to evacuate their citizens, it means that the area near Belarus will become another battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. The number of participants in the war may increase and the situation may become more chaotic.
The fourth thing is that Japan has begun to discharge nuclear wastewater against humanity, which may lead to opposition and sanctions from countries headed by our country, and interest groups centered on Japan may also be deeply involved. In fact, Japan’s discharge of nuclear wastewater at this time must be to attract our attention and tie down our energy so that we cannot affect the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
All of the above events happened today, and the timing is just right. Although these events seem to have nothing to do with the economy and finance, or even the crypto market, any of these events will cause local unrest if they deteriorate. Unrest will seriously affect the financial environment and directly cause panic in many people. Panic will lead to risk aversion, so the first effective way to hedge funds is gold, followed by the crypto market.
At the same time, a key point we need to pay attention to is the annual meeting of global central banks that I have been talking about these days. Many people do not pay attention to this meeting, but the results of this meeting may determine the monetary policies of various countries, especially the current monetary policy of the United States.
Technically, the rebound from the previous decline made many retail investors believe that the trend has turned, and the market funds are risk-averse. In addition, the main dealers pushed at key points, which led to a 1,000-point market last night. Although these things just happened and did not worsen, they are still in a precarious state. Although the occurrence of these things and the risk aversion of funds cannot change the general trend, a short-term rebound is inevitable.
Trend Direction:
The general trend is still bearish. Even if something happens that causes risk aversion in the market, the crypto market is not a mainstream market, and larger funds will not directly enter this market. It can only cause a rebound. After the rebound, it is still a downward trend.
Trading straregy:
Although we have analyzed the rebound result, we cannot take the risk to make a rebound order, otherwise the market may easily hit the stop loss. It is safest to take a short position at a high position. If you take it, you will take a wave, and if you don’t take it, at least there is no loss. At present, the big cake is still sideways and there is no big fluctuation, but if the volatility of the US stock market increases after the opening, we need to be more cautious to take a short position. Playing defense at a high position is the principle of the past few days. Don’t try to hold the order, otherwise you may be trapped.
Spot:
After the rebound of the big cake last night, many copycats have generally risen, and everyone's bottom-fishing sentiment has exploded. Many bloggers are also releasing bullish sentiment, but I advise everyone to be cautious. The current rebound may be an illusion. A 10% increase may be smashed by a wave of declines in the market. The current sentiment is not enough to support the bulls, let alone a bullish rebound.