June was a month full of divergences, with Bitcoin ending the month with a negative 7%

The overall market was good in the first half of June, but June 7, after the release of non-farm payrolls data, became a turning point for the market. The weakening expectations of interest rate cuts this year led to four peaks in the 71,000-72,000 range for Bitcoin, which appeared once a month. Without a period of washout and shock, it would be very difficult for Bitcoin to break through 72,000 again or even set a new high. We will discuss the specific market analysis later. Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$73 million on June 28, and BlackRock also began to have a large net inflow.

TON network TVL exceeded 700 million US dollars, setting a new record. Although there has not been a phenomenal L1 public chain like SOLANA in this bull market, TON and SUI are second only to SOL in terms of locked-up volume. SUI's TVL is more than 600 million US dollars, but its circulating market value is only one-tenth of TON, and its FDV is one-fifth of TON. Locked-up volume, daily active users, trading volume and ecosystem quantity are important indicators for measuring the valuation of public chains. Whether SUI is underestimated or TON is overestimated, everyone has their own opinions.

Starting from July 24, WLD will begin large-scale linear unlocking, unlocking 6.62 million WLD tokens per day, equivalent to about 18 million US dollars, and the unlocking will last for 730 days. After experiencing a sharp rise, WLD doubled six times in just one month, but eventually fell back and is currently quoted at 2.3. With daily unlocking increasing the circulating supply, it is difficult to continue to pull the market. The most taboo in this round of bull market is to pull the market for VC coins. In the case of large supply, no one is willing to take over except market makers. Such an operation by the project party is tantamount to suicide.

The first phase of the merger of the three musketeers was launched today, merging OCEAN and AGIX into FET. Most CEXs support the merger, and users holding the first two do not need to do anything. In the second phase, FET will be replaced by the new currency ASI. The details have not yet been announced, but it is expected to be completed within July.

Last week's option delivery solved a major problem, and in July, we still need to deal with the Mentougou compensation issue. Although many people believe that the supply of physical compensation is not large, it is undoubtedly a stumbling block in the rise. The news of Mentougou will affect the market every time. It is not yet certain whether the negative expectations on June 24 have been released. The best way is to keep some back-up plans in case the market suddenly falls.

Market Interpretation

Bitcoin has broken through the downward channel and has now come out of the downward channel that started on June 7. This rebound is obviously strong and the trading volume has also increased, so the probability of going to 64,000-65,000 is very high. This is the middle track position of the daily line. If it is a rebound, it will most likely end here and then continue to test 60,000-61,000. This process is expected to last for 2-3 weeks.

As for Ethereum, while waiting for the ETF to be launched, the selling pressure of Grayscale ETHE after its listing is also a major problem that needs to be solved.

Altcoins generally rose, and ZRO rebounded the fastest, and it seems that there is still room for further growth. It is normal for new coins to rise in a wave, after all, they have raised a lot of funds and still have money to make markets.

Among the Ethereum system, only ENS performed outstandingly today, while the others were relatively inferior. ENS has a good prospect after breaking through 30, but the trading volume is insufficient, and it is not yet clear whether it is a trap or an opportunity.

The SOL ecosystem is also performing well and is still worth looking forward to in the long run.

Regarding "May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround", in fact, there was a big increase in May as a whole. It might be more appropriate to say "Sixth is poor, Seventh is desperate, and August is a turnaround".

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