Lin Jing: The next bull market cycle of Crypto is likely to be in 2024, not 2025. Open the complete historical K-line chart of Bitcoin, and the 15 annual candles can peek into the law of bull-bear alternation from a God's perspective. Excluding 2009, when it was in its infancy, BTC has only experienced three major bear markets in history with negative annual lines, namely 2014, 2018 and 2022. The other years were all rising bull markets (this year is also a positive line for the time being, unless it falls below $16,000). From this perspective alone, BTC does not really have much to do with the macro economy. The four-year halving cycle under Satoshi Nakamoto's economics is the kingly law that dominates the bull and bear markets of Bitcoin.

However, only looking at the negative line will make a logical error of generalizing. If we compare the positive candlestick chart, the subtle changes in the bull market cycle of Bitcoin occurred for the first time in the 2020 halving. In the 2012 halving and 2016 halving bull markets, the annual lines with the largest increase were the second year after the halving, that is, 2013 and 2017, with increases of 5300%+ and 1300%+ respectively. The annual line with the largest increase in the 2020 halving bull market was not 2021, but 2020 when the halving occurred, with an increase of 300%+. Although the annual line in 2021 finally closed positive, the increase was only less than 60%, which was obviously a fishtail market in the halving bull market.

Even if we ignore the macroeconomics and analyze only from the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin itself, the bull market cycle has clearly moved forward since the entry of institutions (such as Grayscale, Tesla, and MicroStrategy) in 2020, and the increase has obviously declined. Based on these premises, my prediction and conclusion are:

1) The next wave of Bitcoin halving bull market cycle will continue to be advanced, resonating with the positive impact of Bitcoin spot ETF in the first quarter of 2024. 2024 will be the last bull market with a money-making effect in the past decade (the bull market with the get-rich-quick effect ended in 2021, and 2024 is just a money-making effect).

2) Bitcoin's annual line in 2025 will be a negative line, and the United States will enter an unprecedented bear market as it enters a deep recession. Part of the reason for this was mentioned in my Weibo post on June 23 about BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, which said that ETFs are bearish in the long run.

3) The annual line increase in the bull market in 2024 will be less than 300%+ in 2020. This law of decreasing growth has been confirmed many times in the annual lines of 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2021. It is unbreakable. One of the reasons is the popularization of contract leverage.

4) I haven’t thought of it yet, I’ll add more when I think of it.