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“Financial Market Under Reflection of Global Changes: Petrobras, Vale and China at the Center of Decisions”
China changes monetary policy after more than a decade: The Chinese government announced its first change since 2010, adjusting policies to boost economic growth. The move reflects an attempt to mitigate economic risks and stimulate local markets.
- Expectations about the Selic rate in Brazil: The market is preparing for a possible new increase in the interest rate defined by Copom this week. In addition, the IPCA (inflation indicator) will be one of the main focuses of the market, influencing economic projections for 2024.
- Expectations about the Selic rate in Brazil: The market is preparing for a possible new increase in the interest rate defined by Copom this week. In addition, the IPCA (inflation indicator) will be one of the main focuses of the market, influencing economic projections for 2024.
🇧🇷 FOCUS REPORT — MARKET EXPECTATIONS 📊
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
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