Overall Trend Judgment: Short-term bearish, but with potential for博弈
Key Signal Integration:
Indicator Category Signal Direction Explanation
Large Trader Long-Short Ratio (Position Volume) Bullish The long-short ratio is between 2.39-1.99, indicating large traders are generally bullish
Long-Short Ratio of Traders Bullish The ratio is between 1.75-1.57, showing retail traders are also bullish
Price Trend Bearish The price broke below EMA7 and EMA25, approaching EMA99, indicating short-term resistance from moving averages
MACD Bearish DIF < DEA, with negative histogram, indicating bearish momentum
Aggressive Buy-Sell Volume Bullish In the past hour, aggressive buying volume exceeded selling volume
Basis Bearish The basis turned from positive to negative, with perpetual contract price below spot price, reflecting bearish market sentiment
Open Interest Increase Open interest is rising while price is falling, possibly indicating intensified long-short competition
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📈 Technical Analysis Highlights:
· Price Level: Current price is 25.361, below EMA7 (25.736) and EMA25 (25.792), but still above EMA99 (25.206), suggesting short-term weakness but the medium-to-long-term trend has not fully turned bearish.
· MACD: DIF is below DEA, and the MACD histogram is negative, indicating short-term downward momentum.
· Volume: Aggressive buying volume slightly leads in the past hour, suggesting funds may be entering for a bottom play.
· Negative Basis: Perpetual contract price below spot price, typically viewed as a bearish signal.
· Large Trader and Retail Sentiment: Although both trader count and position volume are bullish, prices continue to decline, possibly indicating 'long squeeze' or large traders reducing positions.
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🧠 Trading Strategy Recommendations:
1. Short-term Strategy (1-4 hours):
· Bearish Approach: If price rebounds and faces resistance near 25.70–25.80 (around EMA7-EMA25), consider light short positions, with stop-loss set above 26.00.
· Breakdown Strategy: If price breaks below support at 25.20 (near EMA99), consider adding short positions, targeting 24.80–24.50.
2. Medium-term Strategy (Daily Chart):
· Hold and Wait: Currently in a long-short competition phase; recommend waiting for a clear direction to emerge within the 24.50–26.00 range.
· Breakout Long: If volume increases and price breaks above 26.00, consider following the long side, aiming for 26.50–26.80.
3. Risk Warnings:
· Rising open interest with falling price may lead to a 'double squeeze' scenario.
· Negative basis may trigger arbitrage activities, increasing volatility.
· Use stop-loss orders to manage risk and avoid over-leveraging.
Short-term bearish, recommend shorting on rallies, focusing on resistance zone 25.70–25.80; if price breaks below 25.20, consider adding short positions.
#HPYE