The next major macro catalyst is lining up: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for January.
And right nowโฆ big banks canโt agree.
This isnโt just another data print โ wage growth directly feeds into inflation expectations, Fed policy, dollar strength, and crypto volatility.
Hereโs how the giants are positioned:
๐ Annual Wage Growth (YoY)
Most forecasts cluster between 3.5% โ 3.7%
๐น 3.5% camp: Scotiabank
๐น 3.6% consensus: Reuters, Barclays, Capital Economics, Dekabank
๐น 3.7% hawkish camp: JPMorgan, Citi, BNP Paribas, Pantheon, HSBC, UBS, TD Securities, Jefferies
Translation:
Nearly half of Wall Street is betting wages stay too hot for comfort.
๐ Monthly Growth (MoM)
Consensus sits near +0.3%
โข Morgan Stanley & Scotiabank: +0.2%
โข Most banks: +0.3%
โข Goldman Sachs: +0.4% (the spicy take)
That Goldman print matters.
A 0.4% surprise would instantly revive โhigher-for-longerโ fears.
๐ฃ Why this matters for crypto & risk assets
If wages come in HOT:
โ Dollar strengthens
โ Rate cut expectations get pushed back
โ Risk assets feel pressure
โ BTC likely faces another volatility spike
If wages COOL:
โ
Fed easing narrative returns
โ
Liquidity expectations improve
โ
Crypto gets breathing room
โ
Dip buyers step in aggressively
This single number can flip sentiment fast.
๐ง Bottom line:
Markets are balanced on a knife edge.
Stocks. Bitcoin. Altcoins. Gold.
All waiting on one thing:
U.S. workersโ paychecks.
Smart money is already positioned.
Retail will react after.
Watch the print.
Volatility is loading.
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