Don't get bullishโฆ This is the worst data Iโve seen in the last 4 years.
The Fed is now trapped โ and thereโs no clean way out.
๐จ US CPI just came in hotter than expected at 3.3% โ the highest since May 2024.
Core CPI also climbed to 2.6%, marking the highest reading of 2026.
This is the first major inflation print of the cycleโฆ and itโs already flashing warning signs.
Markets were pricing fewer rate cuts โ now theyโre pricing almost none for 2026.
But inflation isnโt the only problem.
โข GDP growth is slowing
โข Job losses are rising
โข Housing market is weakening
โข Private credit stress is building
The Fed is failing both mandates at the same time: โ Inflation above 2%
โ Unemployment moving higher
If they cut rates โ inflation spikes again
If they hold rates โ economy breaks harder
There is no easy move anymore.
And the situation could get worseโฆ
The energy shock hasnโt fully hit yet, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, inflation pressure may accelerate again.
Unlike 2020 or 2023 โ the Fed has very limited tools now.
This is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous macro setups in years.
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