ETH currently feels like a "strong player" who has just unlocked a new skill but is stuck at a critical level—short-term it is consolidating around $3100, and in the long term, it has hidden upside potential thanks to upgraded buffs.
Current status: A conflicted "charger"
Price performance is a bit "volatile": currently around 22,300 yuan ($3139), down 0.34% in the last 24 hours, but up 3.19% in the last 7 days and over 10% in the last 14 days. It has just rebounded from the $2600-$2700 range but is "slowing down" before the $3100 resistance level.
Surrounding "noises are mixed": whales are quietly "stocking up," wallets holding 10,000 - 100,000 ETH have reached an all-time high, but institutions experienced ETF outflows in November, creating a situation where some encourage while others hold back, causing some hesitation.
Just unlocked "new gear": the Fusaka upgrade completed on December 3, which can increase data capacity by 8 times and improve transaction efficiency, akin to a player who has just learned a new move and is still adapting to how to use it.
Short-term direction: Push through or retreat?
Bullish scenario: If it can break through the $3100 "barrier" with volume, it would be like breaking the resistance of an ascending triangle, and it could then target the $3400-$3800 range, or even aim for $5000.
Bearish risk: If it fails to break through, it may retreat to the $2950 "defense line"; if that support is lost, it could slide towards $2700-$2800, and even face a deep correction risk of $2200.
Key variables: Bitcoin's "leadership role" and macro market sentiment are very important, akin to the condition of teammates and the atmosphere on the court, which will directly affect its performance.
Long-term confidence: Hidden potential in the "skill tree"
Ecosystem "circle of friends" is expanding: the EIL interoperability framework aims to connect all Layer2s, like forming a "super team" of dispersed teammates, providing a smoother user experience that can attract more people to join.
Self "hard power" is upgrading: the Fusaka upgrade has resolved the scalability bottleneck and can flexibly increase data capacity in the future, along with the practical uses of DeFi, NFTs, etc., supporting long-term value.
Institutional "attention" is increasing: net inflows into Ethereum ETFs in the third quarter have surpassed those of Bitcoin, and more publicly listed companies are including it in their asset allocation, as if gaining recognition from professional judges.
#eth走势分析