Bitwise: Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing the End, Multiple Bottom Signals Already Appearing
On July 10, the asset management firm Bitwise said in an analysis that the current Bitcoin bear market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. That is, even though the AI boom has siphoned off large amounts of capital and U.S. crypto legislation has been delayed repeatedly, the process of institutional adoption is moving forward steadily.
According to its investment strategist Juan Leon, Bitwise’s client base is becoming increasingly polarized. Investors who have held Bitcoin for more than two years view the current drop as an opportunity to buy more, while other large capital is waiting to enter until regulatory clarity is established.
He believes that unlike 2022, when the company’s clients were generally worried about whether “crypto can survive,” the question in 2026 has shifted to “when to enter, and how much to allocate.” The change in the nature of the conversation itself reflects the market’s maturation.
Leon emphasized that this round’s 50% decline can be described as Bitcoin’s “most mild structural bear market.” This contrasts sharply with historical drawdowns of 78% in 2022 and 84% in 2018, underscoring the long-term trend that “the bottom of each cycle keeps getting raised.”
At present, several bottoming signals in the crypto market have begun to show. These include technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions, roughly half of holders currently sitting on unrealized losses, long-term holders starting to accumulate again, and record outflows from June ETFs.
The analysis suggests that the pressure on the current crypto market comes more from the macro environment than from fundamentals. Persistent inflation has delayed rate-cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts have intensified uncertainty, and the AI boom has drawn off hundreds of billions of dollars in potential crypto capital.
However, Leon believes the future relationship between AI and crypto will be complementary. As agentic AI develops, demand for programmable money and machine-to-machine payments will make stablecoin infrastructure the key link connecting the two major areas.
Regarding the CLARITY Act, he expects that even if the legislation cannot pass before the August recess, its eventual implementation may still bring a shift in participation structure—“tens of trillions of dollars in new institutional capital,” as described.
Overall, these observations collectively indicate that the current crypto market is closer to the cycle’s clearing phase and the endgame period, rather than the beginning of a structural long-term downturn.
#Bitwise #市场观点