AXS Update January 21: Real Rally or Peak Before a Drop?
The price of AXS broke through the critical resistance of $2.275 and set a new high at **$2.465** (+23% from the previous analysis). However, the daily RSI is already at 78.39 (extreme overbought). Is this the start of a major rally or a peak before a correction?
🧠 Technical Facts:
➡️Rally Trigger: Confirmed breakout above $2.275 + volume signal reversal (CVD turns positive) indicates buying pressure entering.
➡️**Structure:** *Higher High* ($2.465) and Higher Low formed — the uptrend is still intact.
➡️Momentum: 1H RSI (57-64) vs 1D RSI (78.39) — strong rally on the small time frame, but heavy overbought on the large time frame.
➡️Derivatives: The funding rate is still negative (-0.23%) even though the price is rising. This is a divergence signal: futures traders are still bearish, but the spot market is pushing prices up. Open Interest has risen significantly.
🎯 Crucial Levels:
🔺Resistance (Sell Zone / Take Profit): $2.465 (latest high) → $2.55
🔻Support (Buy Zone): $2.180 – $2.220 (healthy pullback area)
⚡Invalidation (Continued Breakout): Break & hold > $2.55 (could continue a parabolic rally)
💡 Simple Strategy:
1️⃣**DO NOT FOMO BUY at $2.33+.** The price is already extremely overbought.
2️⃣**WAIT FOR PULLBACK** to the support zone of $2.18–$2.22 for a **LONG** with a good risk/reward.
3️⃣**OR,** if the price continues to rise without correction and rejects at $2.465–$2.55, look for confirmation to **SHORT** (counter-trend, high risk).
4️⃣**LONG Target:** $2.465 → $2.55.
5️⃣**SHORT Target (if setup exists):** back to $2.18.
⏳ Timeline: Correction/pullback could occur in the next 1-2 days. Reaction at the $2.465 area will determine the direction for this week.
✅ Takeaway: This rally is real and confirmed breakout, but the risk of correction is high due to overbought conditions. Don't be greedy buying at the peak. Be patient and wait for a pullback or confirmation of rejection at high resistance.
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