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๐ Is Bitcoin's bottom not over yet? Amberdata: The real 'final washout' has not yet arrived
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen to the $60,000 mark, causing many investors to feel anxious, but Amberdata's derivatives manager Greg Magadini believes that the true market bottom may not have appeared yet. His reasoning is simple: there are currently no signs of 'capitulation' from investors.
๐ Signals revealed by the futures basis
Magadini focused on the price difference (basis) between futures and spot:
Historical pattern: At the true bottom of a bear market, futures usually trade at a significant discount to the spot price. This is because, at that time, the market is in extreme panic, and investors sell contracts recklessly. Current situation: The basis for 90-day futures contracts remains around 4%. This is only equivalent to the risk-free yield of U.S. Treasuries, indicating that market sentiment is still 'calm' and there is no sense of despair typical of a bottoming situation. Comparison to 2022: When BTC bottomed below $20,000 that year, futures discounts once reached 9%.
Expert conclusion: The current market structure suggests that there may be another wave of downward pressure to cleanse the bulls before the final reversal arrives.
๐บ๐ธ Is U.S. buying returning?
Although futures data is somewhat cold, there is a hint of warmth on the spot side. The Coinbase Premium Index is rebounding:
During the most severe panic selling period, this index once fell to -0.22%. As of February 10, the index has risen to -0.05%.
This indicates that U.S. institutional investors and whales are starting to 'catch falling knives' around $60,000, and this buying support has slowed the decline.
๐ก Trader's Notes
The market is currently in a game of dynamics: on one side is the institutional support from the U.S. market, and on the other side is the unfinished 'final liquidation' in the derivatives market.
Operational thought: Focus on the psychological level of $60,000. If the futures basis turns negative (inverted market) in the coming days, that may be a true signal for major buying.
Do you think this wave is a direct rebound, or will there be 'one last drop'? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! ๐
#BTC #ๆฏ็นๅธ #่กๆ ๅๆ #Amberdata #ๅ ๅฏ่ดงๅธ
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen to the $60,000 mark, causing many investors to feel anxious, but Amberdata's derivatives manager Greg Magadini believes that the true market bottom may not have appeared yet. His reasoning is simple: there are currently no signs of 'capitulation' from investors.
๐ Signals revealed by the futures basis
Magadini focused on the price difference (basis) between futures and spot:
Historical pattern: At the true bottom of a bear market, futures usually trade at a significant discount to the spot price. This is because, at that time, the market is in extreme panic, and investors sell contracts recklessly. Current situation: The basis for 90-day futures contracts remains around 4%. This is only equivalent to the risk-free yield of U.S. Treasuries, indicating that market sentiment is still 'calm' and there is no sense of despair typical of a bottoming situation. Comparison to 2022: When BTC bottomed below $20,000 that year, futures discounts once reached 9%.
Expert conclusion: The current market structure suggests that there may be another wave of downward pressure to cleanse the bulls before the final reversal arrives.
๐บ๐ธ Is U.S. buying returning?
Although futures data is somewhat cold, there is a hint of warmth on the spot side. The Coinbase Premium Index is rebounding:
During the most severe panic selling period, this index once fell to -0.22%. As of February 10, the index has risen to -0.05%.
This indicates that U.S. institutional investors and whales are starting to 'catch falling knives' around $60,000, and this buying support has slowed the decline.
๐ก Trader's Notes
The market is currently in a game of dynamics: on one side is the institutional support from the U.S. market, and on the other side is the unfinished 'final liquidation' in the derivatives market.
Operational thought: Focus on the psychological level of $60,000. If the futures basis turns negative (inverted market) in the coming days, that may be a true signal for major buying.
Do you think this wave is a direct rebound, or will there be 'one last drop'? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! ๐
#BTC #ๆฏ็นๅธ #่กๆ ๅๆ #Amberdata #ๅ ๅฏ่ดงๅธ
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