🥇 XAU GOLD — POST-FED SCENARIO MAP 📉
Fed hiked +25bp yesterday. Gold logged 9 straight down sessions and is now sitting right on its SMA cluster (4,308–4,310). No clean trend yet — expect two-way chop.
⚖️ Probable scenarios:
1️⃣ Range 4,244 – 4,380 (blue zone): SMA cluster holds, sideways grind until next catalyst.
2️⃣ Bearish leg 4,100 – 4,000 (red zone): break & hold below 4,244 → measured move toward the 200DMA.
3️⃣ Bullish reclaim 4,380: oil-stoked inflationary bid returns, trail toward 4,450+.
🎯 Key levels:
• Resistance: 4,380 (96h high), then 4,450
• SMA cluster: 4,308 – 4,310 (decision point)
• Support: 4,244 → 4,100 (200DMA) → 4,000
📊 Why: higher real yields (~4.5%+) and a resilient USD cap gold; oil at ~$102 keeps inflation hedging demand alive as a tailwind.
📌 Playbook: long only above 4,380 with stop under SMA; short below 4,244 toward 4,100. Chop zone in between — wait for the breakout.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
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