problemsoffoodmarkets

Russia may put up for export in September 2026 only 1.6–2 million tons of wheat—against 4.9 million tons a year earlier, the analytical center Rusagrotrans reported.
If the forecast is realized, it will be the lowest result for September since 2010, warns SovEcon, which assesses the range at 1.8–2.3 million tons, which corresponds to a 52–63% year-on-year decline.

The price of the October futures contract for raw sugar (unrefined sugar) traded on the New York market on Wednesday, September 2, rose by 2.23% and reached a high of $0.19 per pound. Prices last exceeded this level on April 8, 2025. This is indicated by data from the ICE exchange.
Rising sugar prices are being observed amid concerns about unfavorable weather conditions in key producing regions, which could reduce yields. According to Goldman Sachs, the weather phenomenon “super El Niño” may worsen conditions in the global sugar market, since about 70% of the world’s exports of this product comes from Brazil, India, and Thailand—regions vulnerable to droughts and floods associated with El Niño.

The UK government announced the allocation of £65 million ($88 million) to support farmers facing severe drought and reduced crop yields, Bloomberg reported on Friday evening.
The measures adopted will give farming operations greater flexibility within environmental subsidy programs: in particular, they will be allowed to use protected grazing lands to store feed for animals without losing subsidies.

According to Reuters, Ukraine may begin transporting grain by rail through Moldova. The authorities in Kyiv are considering this option as a safer way to export than by sea, and have asked Chisinau to lower shipping tariffs, the agency writes on Monday, August 10, citing sources in both countries.

In July 2026, Russia shipped just 2.026 million tonnes of grain—37.6% less than a year earlier, when the figure was 3.248 million tonnes.
According to monitoring data from the Russian Grain Union, published on 3 August, wheat exports separately fell by 17.7% year-on-year—to 1.8 million tonnes versus about 2.2 million tonnes in July 2025. The main culprit behind the slump was tension in the Azov–Black Sea basin: in the third ten-day period of July, shipments dropped sharply by 61.3% year-on-year to 685 thousand tonnes. A drone attack damaged port infrastructure in Taman, the Southern Transport Prosecutor’s Office reported.

Manufacturers of agricultural machinery are preparing for the next cycle in different ways, as industry discussions are going beyond the script of a prolonged downturn — this is the conclusion reached by Bernstein analysts following meetings with major producers at the Farm Progress Show.
Sentiment has changed most noticeably in North America, where corn prices are currently around $5 per bushel, with a break-even point of about $4 on rented land and $3.60 on owned land. Analysts note that discussions increasingly include scenarios with prices of $6–7 per bushel.

Non-commercial traders increased their net long position in Euronext milling wheat futures and options to 144,577 contracts for the week ended 24.07.2025, compared with 111,938 contracts the previous week, according to data published by Euronext on Wednesday.
Investment funds and financial institutions make up the non-commercial category, while commercial participants typically include trading users hedging their risks in the physical market.