glassnode

Last week, BTC made a notable move: it reclaimed $78,100, which Glassnode calls the 'True Market Mean.' Let's dive into the details:
1. The $78,100 breakout has happened, and the next wall is at $80,100.

In this chart, the light green line represents the True Market Mean, while the deep red line is the STH cost basis.
BTC is currently sitting above the light green line, indicating that overall market positions have shifted from losses to slight profits — this line is a structural watershed, not just a technical indicator.
The next resistance is the deep red STH cost basis line: $80,100.

Price is the last thing to move.
On-chain data moves first.
If you're making crypto decisions based only on price charts and Twitter — you're trading blind. Here's how to actually see what's happening before it shows up in price.
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📡 SIGNAL 1 — EXCHANGE INFLOWS vs OUTFLOWS
When BTC flows INTO exchanges: holders are preparing to sell. Bearish signal.
When BTC flows OUT of exchanges: holders are withdrawing to cold storage. Bullish signal — supply leaving the market.
This single metric told you everything you needed to know before the 2021 top and the 2022 recovery.
Tools: Glassnode, CryptoQuant
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📡 SIGNAL 2 — WHALE WALLET MOVEMENTS
Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC are tracked publicly on-chain.
When whales accumulate quietly → price often follows weeks later.
When whale wallets start moving coins to exchanges → distribution phase beginning.
You can't hide on a public blockchain. Every whale move is visible. Most people just don't look.
Tools: Nansen, Whale Alert, Arkham Intelligence
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📡 SIGNAL 3 — STABLECOIN SUPPLY & FLOWS
Rising stablecoin supply on-chain = dry powder building = future buy pressure.
Stablecoins moving onto exchanges = money ready to buy = short-term bullish.
Stablecoins leaving exchanges into DeFi = risk-on sentiment = broader bull sign.
Stablecoins are the fuel. On-chain supply tells you how full the tank is.
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📡 SIGNAL 4 — REALIZED PRICE vs MARKET PRICE
Realized price = average price at which all existing BTC was last moved on-chain.
When market price falls BELOW realized price → most holders are at a loss → capitulation zone → historically the best buying opportunity.
This happened in late 2022. Every on-chain analyst was screaming BUY. Price was 17000 per BTC. Most retail was too scared to act.
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📡 SIGNAL 5 — MINER BEHAVIOR
Miners are forced sellers — they need to sell BTC to cover electricity costs.
When miners accumulate instead of selling → they expect higher prices → bullish.
When miner reserves drop rapidly → they're selling aggressively → bearish pressure ahead.
Post-halving miner behavior is especially important — reduced block rewards mean only efficient miners survive, and their accumulation decisions signal long-term confidence.
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📡 SIGNAL 6 — ACTIVE ADDRESSES & NETWORK GROWTH
Rising daily active addresses = more people using the network = organic adoption.
Falling active addresses during a price pump = price driven by speculation not real use.
A pump with flat or falling active addresses is a warning sign.
A quiet accumulation period with rising active addresses is a buy signal most miss.
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💡 HOW TO USE ALL OF THIS
You don't need to track every metric. Pick 2–3 and understand them deeply.
My personal shortlist:
→ Exchange outflows (BTC supply leaving market)
→ Stablecoin supply growth
→ Realized price vs market price
When all three align bullishly → I size up positions.
When they diverge → I wait or reduce exposure.
On-chain data doesn't lie. Narratives do.
#OnChainAnalysis #Bitcoin #Glassnode

This week, Glassnode released an analysis report with a core judgment that can be summed up in one sentence:
This recovery is real, but fragile.
To put it simply:
First checkpoint: 81,000
BTC is currently around 74,000, which is still 5.2% away from the 'real market average' of 81,000 above.
This price isn't just a randomly drawn line.
It is the average cost basis of all active supply, the 'cost averaging price' for the entire market.
Historically, bear market rebounds often encounter the first wave of intense selling pressure here—
Because those who were trapped above start to flee as they see their breakeven point approaching.

"Investor Confidence Index towards Trends" (data source: Glassnode)

From the chart, it almost shows a fluctuation pattern that is completely consistent with the previous cycle.
Two structural segments, each marked with four nodes ①②③④, following a highly consistent path.
It's just compared to the period from December 2021 to January 2022,
Now this segment is more 'mini', with a shorter span (personal judgment related to the institutions present).
Key data:
As of April 20, the deviation of the red zone from returning to the upper zero axis
almost identical to October 22, 2022.
What does that mean?

However, downward pressure remains amid a dip in supply in profit ratios.
Breakout past $2.30 could allow bulls to aim for more gains, but waning speculative appetite limits action.
XRP price trades near $2.15 and in the red over the week as circulating supply in profit plummets to 58.5%.
This is the lowest level the metric has touched since November 2024 when the Ripple token traded under $1, with blockchain analytics platform Glassnode noting a structurally fragile market.
Dips for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market align with this XRP’s performance.
XRP supply in profit falls
According to analytics and research platform Glassnode, the strong downward pressure has XRP supply in profit tanking to around 58% – the lowest since November 2024.
That’s when the Ripple token traded near $0.53.
Losses in recent weeks have seen supply in loss rise significantly, with momentum buyers dominating and likely a source of sell-off pressure.
“Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss- a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers,” Glassnode wrote on X.
According to #Glassnode , #XRP distribution after profit realization since late September has been “into weakness, not strength.” But have bulls weathered the storm?
The launch of the XRP spot #ETF and key partnerships have buoyed sentiment despite price declines.
On XRP spot ETFs, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas recently noted:
Congrats to $XRPC for $58m in Day One volume, the most of any ETF launched this year (out of 900), BARELY edging out $BSOL's $57m. The two of them are in league of own tho as 3rd place is over $20m away.
— Eric Balchunas
XRP price forecast
Ripple (XRP) is trading around $2.15 at the time of writing on Wednesday as uncertainty across the crypto market continues.
While Bitcoin has bounced off lows of $89,500 and touched $93,000, the market is largely negative, with retail and institutional demand having faded in recent weeks.
Ripple’s token is down 1.6% in the past 24 hours as of writing.
The altcoin is also down nearly 12% in the past week, hovering largely near key support rather than at critical resistance.
This happens as risk-off sentiment cuts across the market, driven by macroeconomic jitters and panic selling.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows the relative strength index hovering near 38.
It’s downsloping to suggest potential declines, and any fresh weakness could derail bulls.
A similar outlook is observable with the moving average convergence divergence, which recently flashed a bearish crossover.
In addition, a dip in XRP open interest, with about $3.65 billion in OI being down from $4.11 billion, signals waning speculative fervor.
The weak derivatives outlook means traders are retreating onto the sidelines amid continued market uncertainty.
Therefore, the $2.10 and $2.00 areas mark key price levels.
On the upside, bulls face hurdles at $2.30 and $2.50 before the critical $3.00 mark comes into play.
#XRPPredictions #MarketSentimentToday