Despite the rumors about possible ceasefires that have provided momentary relief to the market, the reality on the ground is different. UBS warns that the path to a negotiated agreement is narrow, especially with the United States, Israel, and Iran maintaining firm positions.
"Investors should prepare for the possibility that the war could escalate before any significant de-escalation," say the experts from the Swiss bank.
This tension is not only geopolitical but also deeply energy-related. Although OPEC+ approved a slight increase in production quotas for May, of more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), the impact is almost symbolic compared to the magnitude of the damage to the infrastructure.
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