XMR privacy relay fix still under review | No attack on mainnet | I’m waiting for price and access to align
My stance is to watch cautiously, not chase a price move because of a single code request. On November 3, the official Monero repository submitted PR #11676, titled “Preserve the stem phase embargo timeout during repeated relaying.” Looking at the code diff, the original logic reset the wait time before the next broadcast every time a relay was recorded while a transaction was in Dandelion++’s stem phase. The proposal sets that time only if the transaction has not already entered the stem phase, preventing repeated relays from continually resetting the timer. This is a narrowly scoped fix to transaction propagation timing. As of the time of writing, the PR is still Open. Although a collaborator has approved the code, it cannot be described as merged or released, much less used to claim that a major privacy leak has just occurred on mainnet. The latest official release announcement on the Monero website is still for version 0.18.5.4, dated October 16; the two should be kept separate.
Why does this matter for XMR? The Monero website explains that Dandelion++ first propagates transactions along a narrower path, then spreads them across the network, aiming to reduce the risk of linking a transaction to the IP address of its originating node. Repeatedly resetting the stem timeout could affect when a transaction enters wider propagation, but this change does not alter ring signatures, amount hiding, or the supply rules. What’s worth tracking is the review, merge, backport, official release, and node adoption. In the short term, price is still driven mainly by liquidity and trading access.
How has the market reacted so far? At the time of writing, XMR/USD on Kraken was around $643.15, with a 24-hour low of $622.94 and a high of $647.02. The price is near the top of that range, but I can’t attribute the rise to the PR. XMR had no direct upward signal in Binance Square’s six-hour Most Searched list, and there was no relevant label in the trending topics. On the regulatory front, the FATF’s recent targeted review of virtual asset service providers concerns implementation of standards across jurisdictions and did not name XMR in its announcement. Listings, deposits and withdrawals, and trading depth for privacy coins still need to be checked in real time on each platform. Binance’s recent phased-restoration announcements following security incidents likewise do not mean that XMR access has been fully restored. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve’s target rate remains 3.75%–4%, and risk assets remain subject to the interest-rate environment.
I’m watching to see whether $647.02 can be broken decisively and whether $622.94 holds. If the price pushes past $647 but immediately retreats, with the hourly close back below $640, there isn’t enough basis to chase the move. If it breaks below $622.94 and a rebound attempt fails, the short-term bullish thesis is invalidated. Even if the PR is merged, that won’t replace these two price checks, nor will it replace verifying exchange access.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t enter right now; I’d only consider a small, unleveraged spot long. I’d place a test trade using no more than 1.5% of total capital only if the hourly close is above $647.20, the price holds near $647 on a retest, and deposits and withdrawals for XMR and order-book conditions are normal on the platform I choose. The first target is $660, where I’d take half off; I’d reduce further near the second target of $675. I’d set a stop below $636 and limit the risk on the trade to about 0.03% of the account. If the breakout fails, access is suspended, or an official source confirms a new risk related to the PR, I’d close early; a break below $622.94 cancels the plan. If these conditions aren’t met, I stay out of the market; that does not count as a trade or profit.
Sources: Monero official PR
#11676 and code diff; Monero website’s Dandelion++ explanation and release announcement; Kraken market data; FATF announcement. #XMR
This is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.