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WEIBO百万粉丝博主，创业纳斯达克IPO已躺平 专注德州扑克和web3领域研究 擅长高杠杆期权卖方
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Chapter 363: Bottom Building
Yesterday, the entire U.S. stock market was booming. Even when there were still terrifying rumors in the market that the interest rate would be raised to 6.2, technology stocks still brought about a nice big rebound.
But if we take a closer look at the Nasdaq Composite Index, this rebound was just a breather in the continuous decline and has nothing to do with a reversal.
Looking at the daily charts really makes people have no desire to intervene. Also, please note that Google and Microsoft's financial reports will be released soon. We have also talked about a technique before, you can consider ambush the volatility of the same sector to lurk, for example. On Nvidia's earnings day, you can lurk AMD or lurk SOXL's volatility. These two may be taken to the ditch or to the sky, but the volatility level will not be so excited when it comes up.
But if we take a closer look at the Nasdaq Composite Index, this rebound was just a breather in the continuous decline and has nothing to do with a reversal.
Looking at the daily charts really makes people have no desire to intervene. Also, please note that Google and Microsoft's financial reports will be released soon. We have also talked about a technique before, you can consider ambush the volatility of the same sector to lurk, for example. On Nvidia's earnings day, you can lurk AMD or lurk SOXL's volatility. These two may be taken to the ditch or to the sky, but the volatility level will not be so excited when it comes up.
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Chapter 362: Lifting the ban
In recent weeks, the performance of U.S. stocks and long-term bonds has been very unsatisfactory. Not only does the market have no hope for a rate cut in the short term, but there are even calls for a rate hike.
In fact, even if interest rates continue to rise, the impact on prices will not be as obvious as expected. This is just like when we look at the real estate purchase restrictions in various cities every day, we mistakenly believe that real estate will fall when restrictions are imposed, and will rise when restrictions are lifted. In fact, if we look at the trend over the past 15 years, it is precisely when restrictions were imposed that prices began to rise sharply. Restrictions only limited the speed of short-term increases, and lifting restrictions only eased the speed of decline. So why is this?
In fact, even if interest rates continue to rise, the impact on prices will not be as obvious as expected. This is just like when we look at the real estate purchase restrictions in various cities every day, we mistakenly believe that real estate will fall when restrictions are imposed, and will rise when restrictions are lifted. In fact, if we look at the trend over the past 15 years, it is precisely when restrictions were imposed that prices began to rise sharply. Restrictions only limited the speed of short-term increases, and lifting restrictions only eased the speed of decline. So why is this?
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1 Mosaic quietly pulled up more than 1,000 points over the weekend. On the one hand, it was the rune market of GAS skyrocketing, and on the other hand, the halving was finally completed. But unfortunately, the fee rate has not risen yet. According to past experience, there is basically a 2-3 month non-hard period after the halving, so there is no need to be too anxious if you haven't gotten on the train yet.
All groups are passing on the picture of the mining tyrant Shenyu making tens of millions of gas in a few minutes, which is quite interesting. By the way, the mining tyrant also revealed a point of view. The current shutdown coin price is about 4.2-6.2. In other words, the next plunge is likely to be 4.2 as a relay support point. Friends who really like to scratch lottery tickets and buy puts know what to do.
2 The playoffs are about to start. In the morning, the Nuggets will play the Lakers. Unfortunately, I am in a place where the network is very paralyzed. I can't watch it. I can only go back to watch the video at night. When I reach middle age, the most annoying thing is the lack of partners. You find a game you want to play, but no one around you is interested. You find a game you want to watch, but everyone around you is indifferent. Of course, there are people who care but are exhausted by life. Fortunately, TV series are relatively suitable for all ages, and I can barely attract a few more people to discuss. Recently, I have visited some game communities and found that there are a lot of posts about finding online partners to play games. There are many choices of interests and hobbies. It seems to be a good thing, but in fact, the things that people around you pay attention to are not the same. Alas
3 After the age of 35, you will deeply understand what it means to have a bottom line. An accident, a serious illness, or even a job loss will completely reset your life path, not to mention this era of house price avalanche and countless people losing their down payments. Look at Schumacher who became a vegetable while skiing. His height has shrunk from 172 to 160 in the hospital bed. It is said that the treatment has also emptied a lot of savings. Now he sells airplanes and watches.
This also explains why many investors directly reduce the valuation of founders who like extreme sports. This factor is indeed very risky.
As an aside, most people who fail in real estate speculation are not enthusiastic about other investments at all. It's like you have only seen Xiaofang dancing in the village, how can you know the joy of drinking Irish coffee and lighting a fire with the nightingale in Shanghai by the Huangpu River in the middle of the night.
4 Making money is a matter of most of your life, and spending money is a matter of your life.The emptiness of consumption basically reflects the emptiness of life. Making money is about building a kingdom, and spending is about maintaining it.
5 I recently changed all my drinking water to Evian, and found that the price of Evian and green tea sold by JD.com is almost the same. Thinking about this thing that occupies 70% of my body, I might as well get something good to replace it. It only costs a few thousand yuan more a year, which is much more cost-effective than having a big meal...
All groups are passing on the picture of the mining tyrant Shenyu making tens of millions of gas in a few minutes, which is quite interesting. By the way, the mining tyrant also revealed a point of view. The current shutdown coin price is about 4.2-6.2. In other words, the next plunge is likely to be 4.2 as a relay support point. Friends who really like to scratch lottery tickets and buy puts know what to do.
2 The playoffs are about to start. In the morning, the Nuggets will play the Lakers. Unfortunately, I am in a place where the network is very paralyzed. I can't watch it. I can only go back to watch the video at night. When I reach middle age, the most annoying thing is the lack of partners. You find a game you want to play, but no one around you is interested. You find a game you want to watch, but everyone around you is indifferent. Of course, there are people who care but are exhausted by life. Fortunately, TV series are relatively suitable for all ages, and I can barely attract a few more people to discuss. Recently, I have visited some game communities and found that there are a lot of posts about finding online partners to play games. There are many choices of interests and hobbies. It seems to be a good thing, but in fact, the things that people around you pay attention to are not the same. Alas
3 After the age of 35, you will deeply understand what it means to have a bottom line. An accident, a serious illness, or even a job loss will completely reset your life path, not to mention this era of house price avalanche and countless people losing their down payments. Look at Schumacher who became a vegetable while skiing. His height has shrunk from 172 to 160 in the hospital bed. It is said that the treatment has also emptied a lot of savings. Now he sells airplanes and watches.
This also explains why many investors directly reduce the valuation of founders who like extreme sports. This factor is indeed very risky.
As an aside, most people who fail in real estate speculation are not enthusiastic about other investments at all. It's like you have only seen Xiaofang dancing in the village, how can you know the joy of drinking Irish coffee and lighting a fire with the nightingale in Shanghai by the Huangpu River in the middle of the night.
4 Making money is a matter of most of your life, and spending money is a matter of your life.The emptiness of consumption basically reflects the emptiness of life. Making money is about building a kingdom, and spending is about maintaining it.
5 I recently changed all my drinking water to Evian, and found that the price of Evian and green tea sold by JD.com is almost the same. Thinking about this thing that occupies 70% of my body, I might as well get something good to replace it. It only costs a few thousand yuan more a year, which is much more cost-effective than having a big meal...
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It is quite comfortable to open orders in the monkey-like market these days. Yesterday, when I was halfway through the space, Lao Ma exploded. I will briefly summarize my personal views.
1 Continue to be bearish on the exchange rate between the big cake and the second cake. The second cake cannot outperform. The exchange rate is much more mysterious than volatility, because there is no bottom at all. The people who created it are just for the convenience of statistics.
2 Pledge, pledge, and it will definitely be unstoppable in the end. The things that should be sold will not be reduced by a penny, and the decline will come sooner or later. Just like the madness of operating loans driven by real estate in the last two years, the crisis can only be transferred, not eliminated. Who is the price?
3 Energy, energy, and energy. Without energy, you can't even turn on your computer, so what currency can you trade?
4 Miners are the biggest bears. Look at the recent high-stakes poker, many of the people at the table are miners. . Halving is the biggest choice in their life. If 30% of them sell undecidedly, they will have to bear for three months. Do you remember how many points the last time the mine was cleared? Almost 20,000 points
5 Volatility will continue to fall, don’t look at the monkeys these days. The quarterly premium is very low now... Compared with the high point, it has been cut in half, and the bullets of the bulls are almost half less...
6 A while ago, when the US stock market rose, we thought that the Americans pulled the market, so we hurried to pull it up. In fact, everyone stepped on each other’s left foot and pulled it up by 10,000 points... I know that there are still people chasing highs and standing guard at more than 70,000 points
PS: In this round, the spot price of my increased holdings is around 5.9-6.2, buy it according to your mood
1 Continue to be bearish on the exchange rate between the big cake and the second cake. The second cake cannot outperform. The exchange rate is much more mysterious than volatility, because there is no bottom at all. The people who created it are just for the convenience of statistics.
2 Pledge, pledge, and it will definitely be unstoppable in the end. The things that should be sold will not be reduced by a penny, and the decline will come sooner or later. Just like the madness of operating loans driven by real estate in the last two years, the crisis can only be transferred, not eliminated. Who is the price?
3 Energy, energy, and energy. Without energy, you can't even turn on your computer, so what currency can you trade?
4 Miners are the biggest bears. Look at the recent high-stakes poker, many of the people at the table are miners. . Halving is the biggest choice in their life. If 30% of them sell undecidedly, they will have to bear for three months. Do you remember how many points the last time the mine was cleared? Almost 20,000 points
5 Volatility will continue to fall, don’t look at the monkeys these days. The quarterly premium is very low now... Compared with the high point, it has been cut in half, and the bullets of the bulls are almost half less...
6 A while ago, when the US stock market rose, we thought that the Americans pulled the market, so we hurried to pull it up. In fact, everyone stepped on each other’s left foot and pulled it up by 10,000 points... I know that there are still people chasing highs and standing guard at more than 70,000 points
PS: In this round, the spot price of my increased holdings is around 5.9-6.2, buy it according to your mood
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Chapter 359: Circle or not?
U.S. stocks continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the Dow Jones slightly outperforming the Nasdaq. Old industrial stocks have a solid foundation and have not been over-hyped, so there is not much room for a correction.
Remember, there are no good stocks, only expensive stocks.
Look at the current valuation of the chip industry... I'm almost counting all the money your grandchildren will earn into the stock price for you.
Conflict of interest: I do not hold any chip stocks, although I briefly held TSM, AMD, INTL, etc.
Mosaic was in a big market yesterday and this morning... The market is still seriously short of funds, and many mainstream coins have negative fees. Not to mention the second and third coins that can't outperform the big coin. Including the position of the fourth coin BNB, it seems that it can't hold up.
Remember, there are no good stocks, only expensive stocks.
Look at the current valuation of the chip industry... I'm almost counting all the money your grandchildren will earn into the stock price for you.
Conflict of interest: I do not hold any chip stocks, although I briefly held TSM, AMD, INTL, etc.
Mosaic was in a big market yesterday and this morning... The market is still seriously short of funds, and many mainstream coins have negative fees. Not to mention the second and third coins that can't outperform the big coin. Including the position of the fourth coin BNB, it seems that it can't hold up.
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Chapter 357: Slow Down
The Singapore Index, which we mentioned in our previous article, recently had a small correction, but then it stopped bleeding and entered a range of fluctuations.
It is worth noting that the 52-week volatility of this thing is very low. The lowest is 267 and the highest is 310. It has a bit of the flavor of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. Due to the limitation of volatility, this kind of target is absolutely not suitable for fixed investment. You must remember
The reason for choosing this target is that SGP has become a safe haven for some of the hot money that overflowed from HK and SH in the entire Asian region. Therefore, it can be simply assumed that the hot money currently stored in SGP will sooner or later slowly enter the local stock market through investment and other means, which can be entrepreneurship, IPO, more hot money in the hands of local people, or the illusion of wealth caused by the continued rise of the real estate market.
It is worth noting that the 52-week volatility of this thing is very low. The lowest is 267 and the highest is 310. It has a bit of the flavor of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. Due to the limitation of volatility, this kind of target is absolutely not suitable for fixed investment. You must remember
The reason for choosing this target is that SGP has become a safe haven for some of the hot money that overflowed from HK and SH in the entire Asian region. Therefore, it can be simply assumed that the hot money currently stored in SGP will sooner or later slowly enter the local stock market through investment and other means, which can be entrepreneurship, IPO, more hot money in the hands of local people, or the illusion of wealth caused by the continued rise of the real estate market.
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Chapter 356 Risk Pre-positioning
The U.S. stock market continued to plummet yesterday, and the market conditions were not ideal, but unfortunately the SVXY that I bet heavily on did not explode... I just made a small profit.
The prosperity of the US stock market is often deliberately manipulated, such as buyback cancellations, or even debt buybacks. The gameplay is actually more varied than that of the A-share market. After all, it is an old capitalist casino.
But the core reason why A-shares are not worth playing with is that professional managers are greedy, and many founders are not rich enough... and there is not much cash in the account. There are more important things to do with cash. The US stock market is more like a pair of rich second-generations who think about eating, drinking and having fun every day to increase their net worth. Consumption has become commonplace for them.
The prosperity of the US stock market is often deliberately manipulated, such as buyback cancellations, or even debt buybacks. The gameplay is actually more varied than that of the A-share market. After all, it is an old capitalist casino.
But the core reason why A-shares are not worth playing with is that professional managers are greedy, and many founders are not rich enough... and there is not much cash in the account. There are more important things to do with cash. The US stock market is more like a pair of rich second-generations who think about eating, drinking and having fun every day to increase their net worth. Consumption has become commonplace for them.
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(Trading) 12 sentences
It fell but not too much
1 Those who dared to catch the flying knife all bought PUT
2 At present, we continue to see sideways fluctuations, after all, gold prematurely ejaculated
3 The quarterly premium has slowly recovered, and the bull is not dead yet
4 There is really nothing to speculate about copycats
5 Long positions with PUT bottom guarantees are really profitable
6 Arbitrage slowly transfers half of the position to the quarter, otherwise the position transfer fee is quite disgusting
7 There are some money you can't make, but you can lose, such as U premium. .
8 Don't spend your limited energy on arguing with people of low quality
9 I didn't reduce my position in MSTR, I hung a ladder spread there and saw if it could reach 1,800 per share
10 I reduced my spot position in the last offline get out of class, and the tuition fee for the Shenzhen station should be considered to be back
11 USDE is an unreliable thing
12 It doesn't matter how much money you have, but how you spend it is important
"See You Again" is the most restored one in the Xianjian TV series, directed by YYDS
It fell but not too much
1 Those who dared to catch the flying knife all bought PUT
2 At present, we continue to see sideways fluctuations, after all, gold prematurely ejaculated
3 The quarterly premium has slowly recovered, and the bull is not dead yet
4 There is really nothing to speculate about copycats
5 Long positions with PUT bottom guarantees are really profitable
6 Arbitrage slowly transfers half of the position to the quarter, otherwise the position transfer fee is quite disgusting
7 There are some money you can't make, but you can lose, such as U premium. .
8 Don't spend your limited energy on arguing with people of low quality
9 I didn't reduce my position in MSTR, I hung a ladder spread there and saw if it could reach 1,800 per share
10 I reduced my spot position in the last offline get out of class, and the tuition fee for the Shenzhen station should be considered to be back
11 USDE is an unreliable thing
12 It doesn't matter how much money you have, but how you spend it is important
"See You Again" is the most restored one in the Xianjian TV series, directed by YYDS
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Chapter 354: Rivers of Blood
Few words, big words, no nonsense
Yesterday, the main issue was that the Middle East was still in turmoil. I guess all the major media outlets have written about it to death. I will just write about the reasons for the cookie circle itself.
1 ENA, a derivative stablecoin, is very, very dangerous. Building a position at the end of a bull market may seem perfect, but the model must take into account that market makers are unable to smooth out the arbitrage space of the product in a local time. In other words, you think it is reasonable that firefighters will come in to put out the fire, but when the whole city is on fire, the firefighters are stuck in traffic and cannot drive in, or they drive directly to other cities for refuge.
Yesterday, the main issue was that the Middle East was still in turmoil. I guess all the major media outlets have written about it to death. I will just write about the reasons for the cookie circle itself.
1 ENA, a derivative stablecoin, is very, very dangerous. Building a position at the end of a bull market may seem perfect, but the model must take into account that market makers are unable to smooth out the arbitrage space of the product in a local time. In other words, you think it is reasonable that firefighters will come in to put out the fire, but when the whole city is on fire, the firefighters are stuck in traffic and cannot drive in, or they drive directly to other cities for refuge.
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Chapter 353: Forced Liquidation
Last night, the US stock market was huge, the three major indexes fell together, and VIX rose strongly. But tragically, YANG was also suddenly pulled down by 10 points. It seems that this geopolitical conflict will have to be paid by A-share investors again. (Although YANG is benchmarked against assets in Hong Kong stocks)
What made me earn the most yesterday was crude oil and energy, which I have been talking about here recently, such as the two options below. Regarding the trend of energy, I have also mentioned it in previous articles. The current various trainings of AI require a lot of energy as support. Coupled with the current unrest in oil producing areas and Russia's energy exports are currently at a low point, it has directly led to sustained dividends for the global energy industry.
What made me earn the most yesterday was crude oil and energy, which I have been talking about here recently, such as the two options below. Regarding the trend of energy, I have also mentioned it in previous articles. The current various trainings of AI require a lot of energy as support. Coupled with the current unrest in oil producing areas and Russia's energy exports are currently at a low point, it has directly led to sustained dividends for the global energy industry.
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Chapter 352 Contract
Let me interrupt for a day to share the stock of Monster Charging, which we mentioned a few days ago. Because the trading volume is too small, shareholders have announced a dividend plan in order to ensure their own returns (after all, there is no hope of raising the stock price, so it is better to slowly start to make some profits)
The dividend amount this time is 0.03, isn't it very high? It looks like a particularly awesome high-interest asset? And it is the only dividend-paying asset in the power bank industry that can be held continuously?
But what you don’t know is that the US stock market charges an ADR management fee every year for Chinese stocks listed overseas. . It’s about $0.02 for US stocks. I was charged once a few days ago, and they took away thousands of dollars from me. What a painful lesson. .
The dividend amount this time is 0.03, isn't it very high? It looks like a particularly awesome high-interest asset? And it is the only dividend-paying asset in the power bank industry that can be held continuously?
But what you don’t know is that the US stock market charges an ADR management fee every year for Chinese stocks listed overseas. . It’s about $0.02 for US stocks. I was charged once a few days ago, and they took away thousands of dollars from me. What a painful lesson. .
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Chapter 351 Pull a board
The US stock market was hit by lightning at the opening yesterday, but it gradually eased up. Chinese stocks generally performed well, especially NetEase, which we mentioned a lot before, which gradually came out of the haze. After all, the "Yuanmeng" next door is really not good. But the only risk is that doing business with children is a big taboo in China. It is very likely that a piece of paper will be labeled as ZZ and not ZQ, and then various relevant regulations will be overwhelming.
There is also a very interesting phenomenon in the children's market, that is, the payment is decreasing. When they are in kindergarten, everyone throws their weight into interest classes. When they go to elementary school, they do some education and training, which cuts off a lot of interests. When they reach junior high school, they find that the children are really not cut out for learning, so they give up. It is better to save some money to give the children a more solid foundation in material conditions.
There is also a very interesting phenomenon in the children's market, that is, the payment is decreasing. When they are in kindergarten, everyone throws their weight into interest classes. When they go to elementary school, they do some education and training, which cuts off a lot of interests. When they reach junior high school, they find that the children are really not cut out for learning, so they give up. It is better to save some money to give the children a more solid foundation in material conditions.
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Chapter 349 Compensation
A recent noteworthy data is that Singapore's index now shows a strong overbought indicator. Other stocks in the Asia-Pacific region have performed mediocrely, such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng, which have neutral sentiment indicators.
This is most likely due to the overflow of liquidity after the influx of capital that was relied on last year. For example, the demand for local investment and allocation has been introduced into the stock market, and buying sentiment has begun to emerge.
In 2024, housing prices and commodity prices in Singapore have soared, and local property owners are all happy. For example, the last time I went there, the taxi driver told me that his house had soared from 5,000 Singapore dollars to 8,500 Singapore dollars a month, and in the end it was bought by three people who came to see the house that day at the auction. . . And his wife teaches Chinese to local foreigners everywhere. Because the influx of Chinese has increased the number of business opportunities for Chinese people, many foreigners let their children learn Chinese in their spare time, and they also listen to it to improve their communication skills.
This is most likely due to the overflow of liquidity after the influx of capital that was relied on last year. For example, the demand for local investment and allocation has been introduced into the stock market, and buying sentiment has begun to emerge.
In 2024, housing prices and commodity prices in Singapore have soared, and local property owners are all happy. For example, the last time I went there, the taxi driver told me that his house had soared from 5,000 Singapore dollars to 8,500 Singapore dollars a month, and in the end it was bought by three people who came to see the house that day at the auction. . . And his wife teaches Chinese to local foreigners everywhere. Because the influx of Chinese has increased the number of business opportunities for Chinese people, many foreigners let their children learn Chinese in their spare time, and they also listen to it to improve their communication skills.
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Chapter 348: Sinking
The Qingming Festival holiday was short, and the US stock market was still doing well, and it actually showed another positive trend. This is a good advance for our opening next week, but unfortunately, the performance of Chinese stocks was mediocre last night, basically like a dead fish.
The core issues of Chinese stocks have always been financial data, policies and expansion. Of course, the root of all of this is actually the uncertainty about the development of China's private economy in the future. After all, it is impossible for state-owned enterprises to be listed on the US stock market as Chinese stocks.
Financial data: After the two huge financial fraud cases of Luckin Coffee and Evergrande, everyone has no hope for audits, coupled with the recent explosion of Vanke (fortunately, the US dollar debt was repaid in advance)
The core issues of Chinese stocks have always been financial data, policies and expansion. Of course, the root of all of this is actually the uncertainty about the development of China's private economy in the future. After all, it is impossible for state-owned enterprises to be listed on the US stock market as Chinese stocks.
Financial data: After the two huge financial fraud cases of Luckin Coffee and Evergrande, everyone has no hope for audits, coupled with the recent explosion of Vanke (fortunately, the US dollar debt was repaid in advance)
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Chapter 347 Eating
The Hang Seng Index fell slightly, but as the Hang Seng volatility did not fluctuate across a large area, panic did not spread in the Asian session.
At present, HK's ETF, which is taking a big stance, is expected to be approved in the second quarter. As a financial ruin, HK is still very willing to proactively bet on the blockchain this time. Although there are corresponding products in Hang Seng that can actually buy the big pie, there is still a big gap between them and the truly fully compliant ETFs. It is probably the state between the previous Grayscale version and the current ETF.
According to the current signalplus volatility chart, the overall panic has eased tacitly in the second quarter. If the market continues to hold down the second quarter, there will be some big reversals.
At present, HK's ETF, which is taking a big stance, is expected to be approved in the second quarter. As a financial ruin, HK is still very willing to proactively bet on the blockchain this time. Although there are corresponding products in Hang Seng that can actually buy the big pie, there is still a big gap between them and the truly fully compliant ETFs. It is probably the state between the previous Grayscale version and the current ETF.
According to the current signalplus volatility chart, the overall panic has eased tacitly in the second quarter. If the market continues to hold down the second quarter, there will be some big reversals.
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Chapter 346 Short Squeeze
The U.S. stock market first plummeted yesterday and then slowly rose. As of the close, it was still acceptable, and no large-scale position breaking occurred.
Recently, the risk aversion sentiment towards gold in the entire market has accelerated, which has directly led to gold running more fiercely than the stock market every day. 1-2 points has almost become commonplace, and gold concept stocks are out of control.
We can see from a gold stock of a large A-share market that it has risen by more than 50% from the bottom in less than 3 months. Moreover, this is a large A-share market enterprise with relatively poor financial indicators. Therefore, the price can be perfectly equated with the market sentiment.
Recently, the risk aversion sentiment towards gold in the entire market has accelerated, which has directly led to gold running more fiercely than the stock market every day. 1-2 points has almost become commonplace, and gold concept stocks are out of control.
We can see from a gold stock of a large A-share market that it has risen by more than 50% from the bottom in less than 3 months. Moreover, this is a large A-share market enterprise with relatively poor financial indicators. Therefore, the price can be perfectly equated with the market sentiment.
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Chapter 345 Calm down
Except for the big A yesterday, all other markets have gone sideways. I took a look at the night trading of US stocks. The Hang Seng pulled slightly by less than 1 point, and there is a chance that it will stabilize today.
After all, most of Hong Kong's corporate businesses are in mainland China, so they still pay more attention to the monetary policy of A-shares.
Everyone is discussing our monetary policy these days, so I will just talk about macroeconomics.
I am not particularly good at macroeconomics. The following is just my personal opinion. Please do not use it as your own investment decision.
1 There will definitely be deflation rather than inflation for a long time to come. On the one hand, we are deeply trapped in the trap of overcapacity and unable to climb out. On the one hand, East Asian culture, the same Japan, also went through the same process in the decades after the housing bubble burst. Imported inflation is gradually dismantled in the era of deglobalization. Especially for many industrialized products today, the prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are not much cheaper than in North America.
After all, most of Hong Kong's corporate businesses are in mainland China, so they still pay more attention to the monetary policy of A-shares.
Everyone is discussing our monetary policy these days, so I will just talk about macroeconomics.
I am not particularly good at macroeconomics. The following is just my personal opinion. Please do not use it as your own investment decision.
1 There will definitely be deflation rather than inflation for a long time to come. On the one hand, we are deeply trapped in the trap of overcapacity and unable to climb out. On the one hand, East Asian culture, the same Japan, also went through the same process in the decades after the housing bubble burst. Imported inflation is gradually dismantled in the era of deglobalization. Especially for many industrialized products today, the prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are not much cheaper than in North America.
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Chapter 344 400 billion
A-shares opened higher, while Hong Kong stocks were closed.
Overall, the Asian session had another energetic Monday, but considering that the A-share market is about to go on holiday, it is unknown whether investors will withdraw CNY to spend during the holiday and drain liquidity.
An interesting news over the weekend is that the performance of domestic big A public funds has been announced. In 2023, all public funds will have lost a total of 400 billion CNY. A rough calculation is that at least 70% is the investors' own money, which means that private wealth is directly About 300 billion were eaten. If we also calculate the loss of the mortgage loan and the loss of the value of the house itself, it is estimated to be in the trillions.
Overall, the Asian session had another energetic Monday, but considering that the A-share market is about to go on holiday, it is unknown whether investors will withdraw CNY to spend during the holiday and drain liquidity.
An interesting news over the weekend is that the performance of domestic big A public funds has been announced. In 2023, all public funds will have lost a total of 400 billion CNY. A rough calculation is that at least 70% is the investors' own money, which means that private wealth is directly About 300 billion were eaten. If we also calculate the loss of the mortgage loan and the loss of the value of the house itself, it is estimated to be in the trillions.
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Chapter 343 Opening the back door
In the past few days, everyone has been talking about various hackers, including those who steal pledges from project parties, those who steal private keys, and those who steal permissions, etc.
Especially, stealing the pledged coins is undoubtedly a disaster for many friends who are working on projects. In a sense, anyone who has been cheated by domestic companies that went bankrupt and ran away should find it difficult to trust the so-called project party. God knows what the bottom line of the person on the other side of the screen is. . 1 million US dollars, he works hard on the project, 10 million US dollars come in, he hesitates, 100 million US dollars come in, why not let the younger brother play the role of a hacker to steal and then tell you that they failed?
Especially, stealing the pledged coins is undoubtedly a disaster for many friends who are working on projects. In a sense, anyone who has been cheated by domestic companies that went bankrupt and ran away should find it difficult to trust the so-called project party. God knows what the bottom line of the person on the other side of the screen is. . 1 million US dollars, he works hard on the project, 10 million US dollars come in, he hesitates, 100 million US dollars come in, why not let the younger brother play the role of a hacker to steal and then tell you that they failed?
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Chapter 342 Young Model
Yesterday, the Asian market performed well, especially the Hong Kong stock market Tencent's recent return to 300, which directly gave everyone confidence again. Superimposed on Meituan, it has also risen a lot compared to the lows recently. Market liquidity is abundant again.
However, VCs in the primary and secondary markets are still having a hard time. Not only does the A-share market conduct strict inspections on IPOs, but there is also a wave of retrospective inspections on companies that have already gone public. This is very interesting.
Many times, I have to lament that the contradiction in this era is actually the contradiction between "procedure" and "result".
In other words, before a certain rule is implemented, tolerance should be given to the behavior before the rule to ensure that the interpretation of a certain rule is not expanded. Although this operation has allowed many people to go unpunished to a certain extent, is this legal principle that protects illegal acts also a kind of law?
However, VCs in the primary and secondary markets are still having a hard time. Not only does the A-share market conduct strict inspections on IPOs, but there is also a wave of retrospective inspections on companies that have already gone public. This is very interesting.
Many times, I have to lament that the contradiction in this era is actually the contradiction between "procedure" and "result".
In other words, before a certain rule is implemented, tolerance should be given to the behavior before the rule to ensure that the interpretation of a certain rule is not expanded. Although this operation has allowed many people to go unpunished to a certain extent, is this legal principle that protects illegal acts also a kind of law?
