#BTC   

1. The Transitional Phase

The Transitional Phase consists of three sub-phases:

• 1a) The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange)

• 1b) The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle)

• 1c) The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple)

As we'll see, all of these phases set-up the second major phase in the Halving Cycle: The Re-Accumulation Phase which we'll talk about later

1a) The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange)

In the Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange), Bitcoin begins its Pre-Halving Retrace

In 2016, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 28 days before the Halving

In 2020, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 14 days before the Halving

And in 2024, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 30 days before the Halving, very similar to 2016

• 1b) The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle)

This Pre-Halving Retrace represents the final bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period

In 2016, this retrace was -40% deep

In 2020, this retrace was -19% deep

And in 2024, this retrace was -18%, getting close to replicating the depth of the 2020 Pre-Halving Retrace

In fact, in this cycle Bitcoin produced two Pre-Halving Retraces: -18% in March and another -18% pullback this April

But the final Pre-Halving bargain-buying opportunity is now over

The Pre-Halving Retrace is over

And when the Pre-Halving Retrace phase ends, Bitcoin offers a better idea as to where the Re-Accumulation Range has developed

• 1c) The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple)

The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) informed where the Range High of the Re-Accumulation Range is

The Final Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle) informed where the Range Low of the Re-Accumulation Range is

The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) may inform if Bitcoin produces any last downside volatility below the Range Low of the Re-Accumulation Range

In 2020, there was no noticeable Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) because price never made new lows

However in 2016, Bitcoin produced a long downside wick in the 3 weeks that followed the Halving event

This downside wick went -11% below the Re-Accumulation Range Low before reversing to the upside

If this 2016 history were to repeat in 2024, Bitcoin could potentially produce one last flash downside wick over the next upcoming two weeks

The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange), Final Pre-Halving Retrace, and Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) all set up the next major phase in the Bitcoin Halving Cycle...

2. The Re-Accumulation Phase

Now that the Pre-Halving Retrace has occurred, it has set up the very foundations of the Re-Accumulation Range

This Re-Accumulation Range tends to develop a few weeks before the Halving but the majority of this Re-Accumulation Range forms after the Halving

This Range concludes with a breakout from it several weeks after the Halving

The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways to catch a breather, for the market to cool-off after fantastic Pre-Halving price performance

In 2016 and 2020, the Re-Accumulation phase lasted 150-160 days

Therefore if history repeats, this current Re-Accumulation could last up to 150 days as well (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

3. Parabolic Upside Phase

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth into a parabolic uptrend

Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle

$BTC #BitcoinHalving #Bitcoin   

1⃣ BTFP Ending
 
➜ BTFP, or Bank Term Funding Program, is an emergency lending program created by the Federal Reserve to provide additional funding.
 
➜ It was established in March 2023 due to the sudden failure of banks like Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank.
 
➜ As of now, BTFP has ceased making any new loans, which means that a huge chunk of consistent liquidity has been pulled out.
 
➜ This is short-term bearish, as in the long run, they'll always print more money.
 
2⃣ Rate Cut Delay
 
➜ The primary reason behind a big run in stock and crypto was expectations of a rate cut by June, but this has changed in the past week.
 
➜ Last week, the CPI data was higher than expected, which shows that inflation is still not under control.
 
➜ One day ago, Fed Chair Powell also said that the current interest rate could stay longer than expected. 
 
➜ Also, the expectations of rate cuts in 2024 have gone down from 3 to 2, which is bearish for risk-on assets.
3⃣ ETF inflow slowing down
 
➜ Since the ETF approval, crypto investors were only worried about Grayscale outflows, but now they're witnessing inflows from other ETFs too.
 
➜ Also, the outflow from the Bitcoin ETF is consistently outpacing the inflows, which shows that institutional interest is going down.
 
4⃣ War Situation 
 
➜ The Iran-Israel situation has still not been concluded, and this could be a big negative for the market.
 
➜ Any statement or action from Iran or Israel could really nuke the market, just like it happened a few days ago. 
 
5⃣ Bitcoin Historical Trend
 
➜ In the past few years, Q2-Q3 has been historically mediocre or bearish for Bitcoin and crypto. 
 
➜ Also, with the halving coming in 2 days, there will be a rise in the cost of mining BTC, which could lead to miners selling their BTC holdings. 
 
➜ These things usually take a few months to settle, similar to 2016 and 2020.
 
𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻  
 
I'm not bearish on BTC and crypto, but I wouldn't mind a few months of sideways action after 7 consecutive months.
 
Those who have been in crypto for more than one cycle know that the more the market goes down, the more it pumps once the breakout happens.
 
If there's any major dip, I'll use it to accumulate more, as I still think that BTC will hit $150k+, ETH will hit $12k+, and many altcoins will pump 50x-100x.