Breaking news, a target that can turn things around in the crypto world! 10 times? The pattern is too small.

#Xai质押 You must not miss this blockbuster news, a target that can turn things around in this bull market.

How can we make a fortune?

1. What is the famous $XAI that you don’t know yet?

She is the first third-layer blockchain in the Arbitrum ecosystem. Since XAI is open and decentralized, anyone can operate a node, get network rewards, and participate in governance. $XAI plays a pivotal role in the entire Gamfi track. At the same time, because of its unique ecological niche, Sober judges that this target will have a super high odds return on the entire participation in the subsequent ecology.

In this bull market, if we only hold mainstream coins and do not have high-odds altcoins, it is difficult to have a 10-100 times return on investment.

Then you must participate in Xai staking.

#Xai质押  

II. How to participate in #Xai质押 and how to make the most money?

The functions of Xai Staking Pools are summarized into three parts:
Creating a pool
Using a mining pool for staking
Accumulating pool rewards

Xai Staking Pool Release (Staking V2)

1. Sentry Key Owner: The cornerstone of the staking ecosystem, Sentry Key can create a pool, and the maximum capacity of esXAI that can be staked in the pool depends on the number of keys in the pool.

2. Pool creators: By establishing a pool, they can effectively pre-release the game and airdrop it to participants in the pool.

3. esXAI owners: XAI can be immediately redeemed for esXAI, and esXAI stakers may receive a certain proportion of network rewards, and the specific proportion is determined by the pool creator.
4. For ordinary stakers (relative to pool creators), the staking limit can be lifted once every 30 days

[Of course, Buddhist players can become periodic holders through Binance Wealth Management Staking]

XAI's goal is to attract as many staking participants as possible, thereby demonstrating strong participation in the blockchain. In the eyes of the community, staking participation is a strong validator, and as the number of participants and the staking ratio increase, the blockchain becomes more attractive to the project.

XAI 研究报告

$XAI Target analysis:

From a fundamental perspective, it is a very good target

In the short term, there is a 0.95 support and a 0.75 replenishment [left side behavior]


home

The "Sober Chat Options" planet has been operating for 125 days. What have I done?

First of all, I would like to thank these more than 130 friends for their support so that this knowledge planet can continue to operate.

1. What was my original intention that led me to open Knowledge Planet?

The original intention of starting Planet was that I found that I had written free articles before, but there was no response or interaction in my tweets or in my circle of friends. At the same time, there are some opportunities or strategies that do not have such large capital capacity and dare not publicly call for orders on Twitter. So I opened a planet and told everyone about it quietly. This TLT directly allowed everyone to trade the risk reversal strategy (see the picture below, bullish, the bottom area is obvious)

I made 10 times the profit in about one month.

At that time, I really felt that my investment knowledge was monetized, and products with high certainty like U.S. bonds had a guaranteed bottom line. With this kind of profit-loss ratio opportunity, "it is really fun to lead everyone to make money."

The initial planet price was 299, and the first batch of friends who came in all earned at least 30 years of planet fees.

Later, I felt that the platform of Planet was quite interesting. There were many things that were difficult to say on a public platform, or if you said that no one would respond to you, it was really good. What I said was rich in knowledge, and it was a platform that was even better than Binance Square or Twitter. Rich platform.

In these 125 days, Planet has many more valuable things than Twitter and WeChat group chats, with a total of 203 articles.

Covers: Mosaic, macro, US stocks + US bonds, big A, in-depth articles.

The price has also increased from 299 at the beginning to 699 now.

2. What have I done in these four months?

As shown in the picture above, these 203 articles cover 3 major markets. Tiezi who posted the article knows that the main content I share on Twitter is encryption. In fact, my big A and US stocks are not idle at all. You can read my article The distribution is known.

Initially, it was more about sharing crypto opportunities to cater to fellow stars on the planet, but in fact, considering that I am a big A person who transferred from traditional finance and U.S. stocks, I am actually better at many targets. Since everyone comes to the capital market, they all make money, and big Most players also have decentralized configurations, so good wealth passwords should be shared with players who recognize them, so I will try my best to share as much as I can.

Several specific typical operating opportunities

①When I started doing Planet in October, it happened to be the Yazhan Options Trading Competition.

Conducted 3 live broadcasts (and recordings at the same time) for novice options players, telling them how to become proficient in basic options operations in a short period of time; at the same time, the team won the second place in the deribit option competition team.

Everyone probably got 300-500 US dollars.

② From October to December, we took everyone to seize the opportunity of 20-year U.S. bonds.

I repeatedly remind everyone to get on the spot in the range of 83-87 US dollars, and use the risk reversal strategy to earn call-side profits with small profits and big profits. In this wave, even if it is now US$93, the spot income is 12% (and there are dividends every month); the option income is 8-10 times.

③ Perform long gamma operations on Bingtangcheng and Auntai.

I have been prompted several times about long rock sugar orange gamma’s bull market spread opportunities, and the profit-loss ratio is always 10 to 1;

In addition, before the Spring Festival, I would like to remind everyone to study the fundamentals of Auntai. The effect of this round of supplementary increase will be very strong, and three strategies are suggested.

Put spread, risk reversal, and diagnal spread are all bullish strategies.

④ Prompts some risks

Pitfall avoidance guide, respectively prompting DMA sharing and quantifying private equity fund risks

⑤ Long A-share CSI 300 call on February 2

It was more than 2,600 points at that time. When the A-share market was at its most desperate, it prompted us to start a long call.

3. What will I do next?

I will talk to you in depth about my old profession. The asset allocation series is an important series this year. In investment, many people are entangled in tactical aspects, such as macro analysis, industry research, individual stock selection, and specific strategies. Factor dismantling. It requires not only macro-level strategic timing, but also micro-level breakdown of each manager's specific strategies as if they are crystal clear, and doing a bunch of things with a low winning rate.

However, it is very lazy strategically, and has not even established an asset allocation framework with a high winning rate.

Therefore, we hope to use more than 5-10 articles to help everyone clearly build an asset allocation framework.

At least the strategy should be clear first so that no one makes big mistakes. At present, the update is basically completed, and we will continue to check for leaks and fill in the gaps in the future. We will also slowly lead everyone to continue to build their own framework in actual combat.

4. Option practice

I will further carry out various online and offline teachings so that everyone can better understand option strategies in a practical way.

Options private training class is a practical product line developed by me.

5. Why do prices continue to rise?

Why continue to increase prices?

If a good investment strategy has limited capacity, the manager must give priority to the best investors. The best investors are the old friends who gave you help when you were broke in the early days of your business.

When you join the planet, we will find ways to get you value that far exceeds the planet fee. Our energy is limited and we don’t want too many people to join. We only want to provide value to those who recognize us the most.

The old guys who joined Planet in the early days of its establishment, when there was no content, are the ones who support us the most and trust us. We must give them more preferential treatment.

The current fee is 699 yuan per year. How can we get more than 100,000 yuan or even more than one million in value? After thinking about it, we decided to remove the above content and add the following rights to Planet viewers:

Write at the end:

Friends who are waiting for planet discounts, don’t wait. Our principle is that we cannot let new members have lower prices than any old members. (If I have the marketing energy, I might as well write research reports. I’m not good at operations and fan building)

It is now 699 yuan, and it was 299 yuan at the earliest; there is a high probability that the price will still increase in the future, and this increase is much higher than that of other major types of assets.

It is recommended that players with relatively large investable assets join before joining, as they hope to provide value that far exceeds the planet fee.

Our planet is an investment, not a consumption.

#BTC

#Buffett's inspiration
The longer I invest or trade, the more I feel that my circle of competence is very limited

I used to hold a large position in Moutai in the A-share market, but recently I have begun to increase my layout in Tesla; the longer I am in the capital market, the more I like this kind of "gorilla assets"; indeed, I have tried many martial arts from various schools.

However, I still think that most industries and corporate business models are too general. It is so difficult to have insights into some industries and companies and hold on to them.

Last week, I talked with the owner of a Swiss whiskey Appenzell tavern about "seeking truth from facts" and "On Practice"; my lifelong mentors in this regard are Lao Ba, Li Lu, and Teacher A Duan.

Indeed, in the process of investment, it may be a flash of inspiration, but the real understanding of the business company's products is a long process.

"Seeking truth from facts" requires a lifetime of practice and understanding.

The crypto market is a good way to switch classes

To maintain social mobility, we must maintain the channel from the bottom of society or the grassroots to the middle class, so that everyone will have the desire to struggle, because from the grassroots to the middle class, life is getting better day by day.

However, no country's so-called upward channel is from the middle class to the upper class. The ceiling from the middle class to the upper class is very obvious, so obvious that it is unbreakable. If you don't have good luck or extraordinary talent, don't dream about it.

As for the so-called solidification? It doesn't exist. For the middle class, the door to the bottom is always open.

Didn't Lieberman, who studied the Glorious Revolution, say that from the 300-year history after the Glorious Revolution in Britain, the British middle class has been constantly falling to the bottom, and the bottom has been constantly updating the middle class that climbed up before, ensuring the strength of the country and the improvement of the quality of the people.

Financial investment or speculation such as currency speculation and stock speculation, as long as it involves speculation, basically there will be a rapid switch between the middle and low levels.

April 30 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report
ETH is only cool for 3 seconds, and the market lacks hot spots after the ETF goes silent

I. Core Views:

1-Yesterday, Coincall launched the platform currency Call, and the current price is maintained at 0.2 U. Many players complained that the price is not high. I personally think that instead of rushing up and falling back to let many players stand guard at high positions, it is better to steadily empower and pull the market? (As shown below)

2-Recently, BTC's ETF has continued to have a net outflow. It is estimated that this is a phased action. It is necessary to observe whether it continues. If it continues, it is a configuration demand

3-The implied volatility of options continues to fall. In the absence of hot narrative stimulation in the short term, it is expected that the implied volatility will fall easily and rise hard

4-At present, the overall liquidity is not good, and the proportion of copycat targets is controlled.

2. Option block trading

BTC top 1 trading is naked buy call option position (490)
buy BTC-28JUN24-65000-C

ETH top 2 trading is naked buy call option position (3000 and 2000)
buy ETH-3MAY24-3350-C
buy ETH-31MAY24-3400-C
2,000

Published in Sol Planet

3. Macro market

I have mentioned Tesla target at least 3 times in the planet before, and also prompted spot buying below 155.

The option strategy timing recommends a combination of long-term and short-term RR strategy. If you are a private class player who has not followed, opened a US stock account, and have an understanding of Tesla, you should reflect on this wave.

There is a high probability that a new round of narratives will start in the A-share market, and ZC's boundary conditions and foreign capital allocation have been arranged in advance.

Players who have spot or option positions in the A-share market need to take a close look at my daily A-share options research report in the next few days, which details the options strategies used.

April 29 Crypto Options Research Report

ETH sentiment reversed, from general Fud to big V optimistic

BIT link (exclusive VIP 5 handling fee)

I. Core views:

1-I have always been optimistic that ETH will make up for the rise, and there has been a wave of sentiment boosting it recently

2-Dvol data has risen slightly, and the implied volatility Call side has reversed

3-ETH's long-term call option implied volatility has not risen sharply, and it is not recommended for star friends to do covered calls on the Call side

-Although the cottage option target#Solis also in a downward trend, currently at about 60 percent, it still has a clear advantage in shorting volatility compared to BTC and ETH

II. Option block trading

BTC has 2 bull market spread strategies (overall bullish, both more than 100 equivalents)
buy BTC-3MAY24-63500-C + sell BTC-3MAY24-65000-C
buy BTC-31MAY24-66000-C + sell BTC-31MAY24-71000-C

ETH has a large amount of bear market spread strategy (bearish, 1500, not a large amount)
sell ETH-28JUN24-2600-P + buy ETH-28JUN24-3100-P

Sol's bulk planet prompt

3. Other cottages

Recently, in addition to Sol, the main thing is TON. At present, the overall odds and high-value callbacks of TON are already good, and it is relatively comfortable to sell put or ratio spread.

Doge, Kas, etc. continue to pay attention, waiting for the technical reversal position

4. Macro capital market

Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index achieved a new closing high in this round and achieved a breakthrough.

North water is flowing in crazily. The inflow of 22.5 billion on Friday was the largest on record, which represents the attitude of foreign capital rushing in.

Considering that the current high-level external stock indexes are at risk of falling into a technical bear market, and the US dollar continues to be caught in the stagflation game of inflationary pressure vs. economic downturn, the Fed is dancing on the edge of a knife, and the volatility of non-US currencies may trigger the need for global capital allocation reconstruction.

(As shown in Figure 1) In conjunction with the voices of foreign capital that have recently begun to sing the praises of A-shares and Chinese assets, we have reason to expect a round of continuous inflows from Northbound funds.

A careful observation of foreign capital in recent years will reveal that these large funds rarely engage in short-term games. Most of them are based on position allocation logic. After basically determining a logic, they will continue to output in a stage.

For example: Northbound funds, such as BTC ETFs, are all like this.

Finally, if you want to ask questions or learn in depth, welcome to "Sober Chat Options Planet"

April 26 Crypto Options Research Report

Dvol collapsed, short-term implied volatility is bearish, and it is not time to go long on volatility

Options Competition: Coincall exclusive options competition is very friendly to new players; you can get 500#Calltokens for free at almost 0 cost

I. Core Views:

1-BTC and ETH implied volatility continue to collapse, and it can be seen from the volatility cone that it is close to the 75th percentile;

2-The short-term downside risk is further increased, and the Put-end implied volatility continues to heat up. Players who use simple insurance strategies can stop profits appropriately; players who use "black swan" strategies remain idle;

3-Mainstream altcoins are silent. If BTC suddenly falls, the altcoin will not be protected. It is recommended that spot players fully cover the call while the altcoin Call-end implied volatility is still good. There is no need to have a big pattern

II. Options bulk transaction data

BTC's bulk changes very quickly. Yesterday, several of the largest positions were short-term insurance strategies (800 and 400 BTC respectively)
buy BTC-3MAY24-59000-P
buy BTC-31MAY24-62000-P

The bulk of ETH is to lay out the short volatility strategy:
sell ETH-26APR24-3150-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3200-C
buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3150-P

Sol This bulk is worth noting (I reminded in the group yesterday, and the strategy coincides)

3. Other altcoins

Will continue to roll over several altcoins:#Ton#Doge#Kaspa
Other altcoins that are not familiar with the fundamentals will not be touched

4. Macroeconomics

Yesterday, there was no large-scale fluctuation in North Water, and the rhythm of its inflow and outflow basically coincided with the fluctuation of the index.

With the recent increase in foreign capital that is bullish on A-shares, the US dollar has also finished playing the hawkish role again.

My subjective judgment is that the inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market should be greater than the outflow. (As shown in Figure 1) The index has been brewing a new market trend for a long time, and it is likely waiting for the meeting next week.

April 25 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Yesterday's key reminder of#ETHbulk put option transactions, short-term ETH downside pressure is still large

Option Competition: Coincall exclusive option competition is very friendly to new players; you can get 500#Calltokens for free at almost 0 cost

I. Core Views

1-Yesterday's special tweet emphasized the purchase of 16,000 ETH put options in the doomsday round, and the short-term downside risk has not been eliminated

2-The doomsday round Short Gamma position is recommended to close the position for profit, don't fight

3-BTC's Dvol data continues to decline, highlighting the attenuation of implied volatility after the end of event-driven

4-The implied volatility of the cottage target option has fallen significantly, and the short volatility strategy of Sol, Doge, Kas and other targets has been pocketed

II. Option Block Trading

BTC has a 3-leg strategy with 800 positions (the overall view is still bullish on spot prices):
buy BTC-28JUN24-110000-C + sell BTC-28JUN24-160000-C + sell BTC-31MAY24-110000-C

ETH has 2 large transactions worth noting (follow up last week's 13,000 buy 3,400 position):
buy ETH-3MAY24-3400-C
sell ETH-26APR24-3000-P + buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3200-P

Sol's several large transactions shared in the planet

III. Macro market

I have previously reminded Tesla's option strategy twice. Yesterday, the spot price rose by 12% in the after-hours earnings season

The slowdown of the US stock PMI boosted the risk market sentiment, and the service industry PMI also unexpectedly weakened to 50.9, which was lower than expected. 51.7, of which new business and employment (47.3 vs 51.1) fell sharply, the latter falling to the lowest level since the epidemic

My view on the overall US stock market is that the probability of peaking is 80%. If you chase the target, you should also use some option hedging strategies instead of naked long positions.

The relative weakness of H shares last week was due to the external environment and the strong US dollar. The trend of H shares far outperforming the external environment in the past few days reflects more the return of investors' confidence in the market. Because the rhythm of A shares and H shares has been slightly different in the past two weeks, A shares are obviously relatively weak in the past two days, but logically speaking, there should not be a situation where H shares continue to break through and A shares continue to be sluggish. Therefore, we should pay attention to the return of confidence in H shares, and it will inevitably be transmitted if it continues.

Only when the hope of recovery is denied again, we can pay attention to other things.

For detailed volatility analysis of A shares, see the planet

April 24 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

NASDAQ surges, ETF net inflows; focus on core assets

I. Core Views

1-Recently, I have been thinking that this round of crypto bull market is likely to be like the US stock market; if it is based on this judgment, then we need to make some key adjustments in asset allocation, otherwise the subsequent returns are likely to be lower than expected;

2-The medium- and short-term views remain unchanged, and the probability of a sharp drop is reduced; but there is no obvious sign of implied volatility abnormality in the accelerated rise; long gamma players must control each bet position (also discussed in the live broadcast yesterday)

3-Don't touch the cottage targets that do not have advantages without understanding the fundamentals, and focus on the targets we are familiar with

II. Option block trading positions

BTC has 2 relatively large positions
sell BTC-31MAY24-80000-C
buy BTC-26APR24-80000-C

ETH has 1 doomsday round 16,000 put option position
buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P

Sol has 2 large positions
buy SOL_USDC-25APR24-142-P
buy SOL_USDC-25APR24-140-P
750

III. Copycat options

Through the option insight of @Coincall_Global yesterday, we can come up with several deep-diving targets that are also bullish from the perspective of implied volatility, and continue to hold rolling positions

IV. Macro capital market

The gold price premium caused by geopolitical conflicts has gradually faded from the market, and the recent decline has continued.

There are still a few days before the April meeting. According to the statistics of the sell-side research report, my country's fiscal policy in the first quarter was significantly lower than in the past few years. Now that the second quarter has passed for one month, whether the fiscal actions to stimulate the economy such as special bonds and special treasury bonds can be accelerated will also affect it.

The tone of the meeting can be seen. With the fiscal policy being stepped up, the GDP in the first quarter has exceeded expectations due to the improvement in exports and other aspects. If the second quarter can continue, the public's confidence in the economy will gradually break away from the negative spiral of real estate.

This is also one of the core reasons for some option call positions. By the time everyone realizes it, the market is likely to perform quickly, and that will be the time to cash in the 2024 level.

April 23 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Large bets on ETH doomsday call options, the probability of short-term decline is further reduced

I. Core Views

1-From the perspective of BTC spot ETF inflows and option implied volatility, superimposed on short-term funding rates, the risk of a sharp drop in the near future is relatively low

2-Buy 13,000 ETH call options naked, we deploy a spread strategy, with higher tolerance (see planet)

3#Solanaspot price climbs, implied volatility is also at the 75th percentile, continue to short volatility to reduce holding costs (BIT option training camp prompt point) [Yesterday in the private class, it was also prompted that Sol spot has an increased probability of rising, and it is not suitable to use call chasing]

II. Large transaction tips

BTC has 3 large positions, namely (the first large diagonal strategy is mainly long far-end Vega):
buy BTC-27DEC24-80000-C + sell BTC-28JUN24-75000-C
buy BTC-3MAY24-70000-C
buy BTC-26APR24-70000-C

The most noteworthy thing about ETH yesterday is this 13500 buy bullish position:
buy ETH-26APR24-3400-C
sell ETH-26APR24-3000-P + buy ETH-26APR24-3200-P

Sol had 2 positions yesterday, both of which were greater than 1500 (prompted in the planet)

III. Copycat options
#DogeImplied volatility is in decline, and the spot price has been sideways for a long time. We will choose the opportunity to go long on volatility;#KasImplied volatility fell back to 75 Within the percentile, we will use call options to bet later to increase returns, and make some spreads on the bearish side to recover costs.

IV. Macro capital market

One of the most important questions for global investors at present is whether the US stock market, especially the technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq 100, has peaked?

Combined with the trend of the US stock market in the past month or so, I think the probability of judging whether the market sentiment of AI has peaked should be much higher than 80%. If I have to estimate a number by slapping my head, I think it may be 95%.

In terms of the current interest rate environment, valuation level and performance growth, if the Nasdaq 100 cannot tell a more exciting story than AI, then the Nasdaq 100 is likely to peak along with the market sentiment of AI.

Based on the key judgment of whether the US stock market has peaked, in fact, a medium- and long-term strategic asset allocation thinking is often more important than the short-term fluctuations in the price of a small category of assets.

I wonder what you readers think.

April 22 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

The historical implied volatility of the past year has limited reference significance, and the implied volatility of ETH bearish side continues to rise

I. Core Views

1-The Middle East risk will not expand at least for the time being, and the short-term impact will also retreat quickly. The implied volatility of BTC bearish side has obviously fallen back, and the overall market continues to be bullish

2-The spot side ETH chased 10% over the weekend. The current market is generally bearish on ETH. My view is still consistent with the Spring Festival. It will catch up, but I don’t know when. ETH's advantage in L1 is unmatched in this round

3-The altcoins#Sol#Ton are still in the high volatility range. Under the premise that there is no doubt about the fundamentals of the benchmark, naked +delta exposure continues to be mainly long, and shorting implied volatility is still a good trading strategy
(See the planet for specific trading strategies, and you can also ask questions at any time)

2. Block trading

BTC has a 250 position buy put option transaction at the weekend
buy BTC-26APR24-59000-P

ETH also has a short-term buy put position of 3,000, which is subjectively judged as a closing operation
buy ETH-26APR24-2700-P
sell ETH-22APR24-3275-C

Sol's large position was updated in the planet today

3. Altcoin options

We continue to trade Doge in coincall kas's option strategy

IV. Macro market

Last Friday, the main A-share index fell, dominated by the factors of the outflow of funds from the north due to the strengthening of the US dollar expectations and the risk of war in the Middle East. Internal investors cautiously assisted in the emotional breakthrough of the boundary inertia.

The strengthening of the US dollar expectations corresponds to the weakening of Asian currencies. There are many small essays about harvesting Asia recently, but observing the stability of the RMB, the conclusion that the A-share market will continue to be affected is untenable.

Last week's war was a big event. Israel's counterattack was limited. At the weekend, Iran's foreign minister had made it clear that he would not counterattack again, which means that the Middle East risks will not expand at least for the time being, and the short-term impact will also retreat quickly. The emotional inertia of internal investors is ultimately a confidence issue.

The physical feeling of the weak old economy dominated the emotions, and then ignored the actual improvement of the new economy. This is actually the biggest opportunity for bulls this year.

Although I have been busy over the weekend, I have also read several brokerage sell-side reports. The focus is on the strength of China's manufacturing industry in the first quarter, and some institutions have even begun to convey the evolution of the logic of going overseas.We have talked about it recently. Under the current global inflation, our manufacturing exports have competitive advantages. Coupled with the migration to high-end, the economic resilience derived from this may be gradually discovered. Then it will be passed on to internal confidence and domestic demand confidence.

When it ferments and everyone believes in it, it is time to cash it in. If the European and American equity markets turn from bullish to bearish (the probability is not low at present), it will not be a bad thing for A and H shares, which are at the bottom of the world. Don't worry that we will be dragged down by the transition because of the decline of US stocks. On the contrary, it may boost our value from the perspective of configuration.

April 19 Crypto Options Volatility Research Report

Chasers, with the ups and downs of the market; those who are calm, sit and watch the clouds rise and fall

There have been several options competitions recently, with generous prizes (hundreds of dollars guaranteed), interested parties can form a team together

I. Core Views

1-I interacted with the Planet players at 10 am yesterday, and I subjectively thought that the short-term decline sentiment was almost over. Again, we are ordinary people, don’t always want to “buy at the bottom”, knowing yourself is more important than knowing the target

2-The market fluctuates, and leverage is cleared before each round of surge. In the recent waves of altcoins, many players who don’t have BTC or the strong altcoins we recommend are very uncomfortable (for example: #TON)

3-Short-term bearish sentiment converges, and ETH continues to underperform BTC

4-The implied volatility of altcoin options has also changed. Only by laying out the bullish side in advance can you avoid missing the surge

2. Option block trading information

BTC had 2 large buy put option positions yesterday
buy BTC-31MAY24-57000-P (600)
buy BTC-26APR24-58000-P (450)

ETH block trading option positions are divided
sell ETH-19APR24-3000-P (2,250)
buy ETH-26APR24-2700-P (2,000)

Sol large position daily planet tips

III. Abnormal movement of cottage option implied volatility
#Linkimplied volatility obviously follows the rise of the underlying price and shows a positive correlation;#Solimplied volatility slightly decreases, and the put end shorting volatility has a good effect;#Tonimplied volatility remains high, and shorting volatility continues.

IV. Macro market information

Yesterday, the US stock market rose and fell, and several crypto-related stocks rose fiercely at the opening; US bonds continued to cool down, and this round of long-term US bond investors withstood the test of October last year. I personally don’t think there will be any impact on the long term, and even added some TMF positions.

The US bond yields collectively fell slightly from the high point, and the ten-year yield returned to below 4.6%, reporting 4.575%, and the two-year yield sensitive to interest rate policy reported 4.924%, and risk sentiment was cooled.

From the perspective of macro confidence in the A-share market, after the National Nine Articles, the next narrative worthy of market attention should be the Central Quarterly Economic Work Conference at the end of April. Before that meeting, I think market players have reason to leave some expectations for it.

April 18 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Short-term downward momentum continues, players with high leverage should unload leverage

Option Competition Tips:
The recent CC-started exclusive trading competition is very friendly to new players or players with small trading volume. Registered users can get 500#Calltokens for free

I. Core Views

1-ETH bearish funds continue to increase, short-term downward pressure > BTC

2-Halving market RV volatility continues to increase, non-copycat targets have low implied volatility, and naked short volatility is not cost-effective

3-Our long-term copycat targets#Tonand#Kashave strong anti-fall ability, and subsequent rebounds are imminent, so we need to plan bullish strategies in advance

II. Block Trades

BTC has a 1,800 position transaction that is very worthy of attention (if you don’t understand, you can ask questions on the planet):
sell BTC-27SEP24-90000-C + buy BTC-31MAY24-80000-C

ETH There is nothing particularly noteworthy about the bulk of Sol at the end of May. Sol's bulk position is more than 3,000 pieces [already prompted in the planet]

3. Other cottages

The overall market has fallen recently. We must pay attention to the targets that are more resistant to declines. The main control action is obvious. In fact, as long as the market stabilizes in the future, it is not surprising that#TONCOIN#kaspa will go out of the big market. Here, it is recommended to short volatility as much as possible to receive goods

Don't rush to buy on the Call side. You can wait for the market. The most suitable tool for cottages to chase up is options

4. Macro capital market

Yesterday, the long-term US bonds rebounded. The US stock market has continued to fall recently. Our selected "gorilla targets" have also been tested recently. Patient and slow layout is the preferred strategy.

Observing the recent exchange rate, except for the RMB, other non-US currencies have fallen sharply in the past two days. The yen has even depreciated to a 20-year low, while the RMB is obviously strong this time. On the one hand, it shows that we have effective control, and on the other hand, the stability of North Water also shows that the current RMB assets have a strong relative price advantage. The exchange rate point, as described in the article "Current Major Asset Allocation" last year, has not changed.

Is it normal for the A-share market's micro-cap index to fall 10% and then rise 10% in the past two days? Is this investment ecology normal? The result is obvious, it is not normal. It is very similar to the mosaic market, which is a pure speculation copycat target without much value support.Everyone is too emotional, or too easily influenced by some non-core news, and the short-term game logic is too strong.

April 17 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Recent predictions have been correct 3 times in a row. Use short volatility strategy to buy the bottom of spot in batches

I. Core Views:

1-Recent tweets have predicted 3 short-term market trends in a row, but I still don’t think that we ordinary players should rely too much on short-term predictions. It is more meaningful as a learning and reference

2-BTC is still very strong overall. The previous strong support point of 59,000 remains unchanged. The upper space is beyond the previous high and breaks through 80,000

3-The implied volatility of options is bearish in the short term, but after the beginning of May, the bullish sentiment has become stronger, and a large rebound is imminent

4-Monitor BTC.D and choose the right time to participate in the copycat option target, the odds will be even better (see the planet for details, long and short volatility targets)

II. Option block trading

BTC block trading information (positions are all above 300 BTC, the overall direction is bearish)
sell BTC-28JUN24-70000-C + buy BTC-28JUN24-75000-C
buy BTC-31MAY24-50000-P + sell BTC-31MAY24-80000-C

ETH bulk transaction information (positions are all around 4,000, both long and short)
sell ETH-26APR24-3100-C
buy ETH-19APR24-3250-C

Sol positions with large trading volume (more than 500, biased towards short protection)
buy SOL_USDC-17APR24-124-P
buy SOL_USDC-17APR24-122-P

III. Macro market situation

Both US stocks and US bonds have suffered a critical hit, and interest rate cuts are expected to be further delayed. It is bearish in the short term, but it is a good thing in the long run, I think.

I look at the trend of the Wind Micro-cap Index of A-shares. The momentum in the past two days is quite similar to the shadow of the DMA killing of quantitative at the beginning of this year, and the magnitude is close to the worst in early February. In fact, my personal account has always held a lot of micro-cap funds at the beginning. Later, with the change of ZC, everyone tried to avoid it.

The essence of the A-share market is ZC market. There is no good result if you go against ZC. (As shown in Figure 1) I glanced at the snowball in the hospital yesterday and found a lot of scolding. Most of them are scolding the national nine articles. But objectively speaking, I personally highly affirm the tone of the national nine articles, and the reason has been mentioned two days ago.

This is a landmark event in the change of the A-share investment ecology, and it will inevitably become a key moment in the future.

Research report on crypto option volatility on April 16

Previous predictions were correct twice in a row, and the halving month is mainly for long volatility

Reminder of high-quality projects: Recently, I have been trying to get the airdrop of the leading option Dex Synquote, and it is expected to issue coins in the near future

I. Core views:

1-Last week's tweets reminded of the long risk and the support of 59,000 below; and appropriately increase the spot position over the weekend and give up the idea of ​​bottom fishing

2-There are still 4 days before the halving. Multi-dimensional data show that the short-term downward pressure is greater, and the risk of falling should be paid more attention to

3-From the perspective of option implied volatility, BTC and ETH have larger bearish buying, and the overall option position is more inclined to short; ETH's trend is still weak.

4- Focus on the BTC.D indicator, increase the allocation of alt options positions, and see (Planet) for alt option volatility forecasts and trading strategies

II. Option block trading data

The two largest BTC block trades yesterday were (overall medium- and short-term bullish positions, with trading volumes exceeding 1,000 BTC)

buy BTC-31MAY24-69000-C

sell BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + buy BTC-27SEP24-110000-C

ETH's two large blocks yesterday were both short-term bearish strategies (positions exceeding 4,000 ETH)

sell ETH-17APR24-3250-C

sell ETH-19APR24-3200-C

Sol block volatility forecasts see Planet

III. Other alt targets

#Ton, #Kas,#Dogeunder long-term observation There are also good trading opportunities recently, which will be synchronized in the BIT Option Practice Camp and the Planet

IV. Macro Capital Market

An important news: Hong Kong officially approved BTC and ETH spot ETFs. My personal subjective judgment is that because Hong Kong stocks have little liquidity, the real value is not very meaningful, but it is still okay to show HK's attitude.

After all, HK has been too miserable in recent years

US stocks:
With the gradual fading of expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, investors have shifted to safe-haven assets. Recently, US stocks and US bonds have not had a good time.

A shares:
In the past week, it was still the house that constrained everyone's macro confidence. The symbol in the secondary market is the trend of Vanke A. From the recent trend, investors' negative emotions about houses are still there, and the new economy needs data to confirm. The previous social financing and CPI were not very good. In the next few days, we will focus on the data such as industrial added value and fixed asset investment.

In the future, we need to focus on the weak logic of macro recovery. The stability and cycle of the new round of upward will be magnified by one dimension.

Yesterday, two groups of people suggested that you can buy spot goods and give up the idea of ​​buying at the bottom. Is it timely? #BTC

The reminder I posted on Binance Square the day before yesterday
Is it wrong?
$BTC

I've said before that everyone wants to go to the casino to gamble. They don't want to learn a little bit of gambling skills. The most cost-effective way is to spend time on your own. Or find a reliable person to spend some money. They think that paying for knowledge is expensive. They feel good when contracts are liquidated and the ups and downs are going on. This is human nature. It has never changed.