$BTC If BTC closes at around 65,000 tomorrow, it will form a classic candlestick bearish pattern - Evening Star.

It is very likely that the rebound from 59,600 will end here.

In the short term, BTC's halving has been completed, Hong Kong's ETF has officially landed, and there will be no news about the Fed's interest rate cut in the short term. In addition, Nasdaq has shown signs of peaking in the short term, and the sharp rise in gold some time ago was directly interrupted by a big negative line yesterday.

Based on these news, BTC's downward correction resistance should be minimal now. In other words, BTC is very easy to fall.

Of course, if BTC still refuses to fall below 60,000 and intends to stay at this position for a long time, there will really be no market in the second quarter.
$BTC

$BTC I am a long-term BTC bull. Why do I still think that BTC should continue to adjust downward even though it has rebounded to 67,000?

BTC has rebounded from 59,000 and has broken through the 10, 20, and 60-day moving averages, stood firm on the 12-hour middle track, touched the daily middle track, and formed a cross star at the bottom of the three-day candlestick chart. In any case, from all indicators, it is a bullish pattern. Now it is definitely not worth shorting. Is it really the same as at the end of January, when it would never fall to the 120-day moving average of 38,000, and now it would never fall to 55,000?

The market of altcoins is very subtle at present. If you bought it after the short position was halved, you have had a good time these days, with many rebounds, and there is still a long way to go from the high point. I don’t know how long it will take for those who took over at high positions to get out of the trap. There are also many hot coins that are still falling. The bull market of the copycat is the same as what I said before. If the market does not have a particularly clear direction, that is, BTC directly falls to the right position or BTC trades sideways for a long time to break through the previous high position, then the bull market of the copycat is still far away.

In summary, although all indicators of BTC are bullish, I still only look at the rebound.

And I still stick to my point of view, that is, BTC must fall to a key position, the 120-day moving average or the 180-day moving average, which is the most direct for the overall upward development. But if it does not fall to the position, BTC will fluctuate up and down like this, and it is not known when it will trade sideways. Will it really trade sideways until the third quarter?

Of course, the fluctuation of BTC prices always has its own direction, which is not subject to people's will, and there is no good or bad direction. It depends on who guesses right.
$BTC

$BTC Yesterday, BTC finally fell below 60,000, but it went up again after a short while, forming a 4-hour bottom divergence. Logically, there should be a 2-3 day rebound back to the 66,000-60,000 range. Now it is almost 64,000. If the rebound strength is very high, the price may rebound higher, but I think the probability is not very high.

Then let's talk about the bottom problem. There is a saying that the longer the horizontal line is, the higher the vertical line is. This vertical line can go up or down, and it should be downward at present.

BTC has been above 60,000 for more than a month since March 14th, and it has not fallen completely and rebounded smoothly.
One of my judgments is that the more horizontal it is, the deeper it may fall. Originally, I estimated that it would fall to the 120-day moving average of about 55,000, so the decline from the high point would be 25%. If it takes more than ten or twenty days to adjust, such a decline is also appropriate. But now it is different.

So now I have to change my blind prediction a little bit. If it falls to 55,000 and can go up quickly, and the volume is large when it bottoms out again for the second time, then this bottom may be very solid. If not, it is very likely to fall to 50,000, near the 180-day moving average. Emotionally, many people now understand that the trend needs to be adjusted, and they plan to increase their positions around 55,000. This year's dog dealers are so dog-like, will it really make it easy for players to open long positions at this position?

So I am more and more inclined to the 180-day moving average of 50,000. Let's wait and see.

What do you think?

$BTC

It is about to fall below 60,000. I have been waiting for more than a month. If the resistance level is attacked for a long time, it will be broken. If the support level is defended for a long time, it will be lost.

Break

$BTC

When will BTC fall below 60,000, when will it fall to the right position, and where will it fall to be the most appropriate?

In the early morning of April 13, BTC's big shorts took advantage of the impact of the war and directly smashed BTC below the 60-day moving average. Yesterday, the first batch of BTC ETFs in Hong Kong passed, which can be regarded as adding fuel to this bull market. Of course, adjustments should be made. If it falls to the right position, the K-line pattern will be repaired, and the next wave of bulls will be more stable.

The day before yesterday, the market fell to 60,660, which may give people a feeling that BTC will never fall below 60,000. I don't know if you have heard a saying that resistance levels will be broken if they are attacked for a long time, and support levels will be lost if they are defended for a long time. At this state, no one thinks that it will not fall below 60,000.
The 120-day moving average position of 55,000 must be visited. But there is another saying recently that the current form of BTC is similar to that in May 2021. Will this price continue to go down directly? ? ?

It has been exactly half a year since the bull market officially started in October last year. Then I pointed out the 180-day moving average and found that it will reach 50,000 in a few days. Will it fall to 50,000?

$BTC

This is just luck. I accidentally saw my analysis and clicked on the analysis chart. After careful consideration, I felt that I had to play it safe, so I ran away first.
Oh, I was right to run. Now all the coins are discounted.

I am very happy to see that someone has kept their income and principal through my analysis
$BTC $BTC

BTC's decline came as expected, just falling to 60,600, breaking the last low, but the adjustment is still continuing.

I started to be bearish on March 14, and published the first analysis and forecast of this wave of adjustments on March 25. In the middle, I sent out bearish short messages at high points many times. At that time, the cottage was basically still at a high level, but BTC always fluctuated sideways at a high level, and almost tricked me into surrendering, but in the end BTC still had to make a healthy adjustment.

Now the goal is very clear. The first goal is to fall below 60,000, and the second goal is to fall to the 120-day bull-bear dividing line of about 55,000, which is very standard. If you want to step down hard, it is the big support of 52,000. I have said these points many times.

Friends who pay attention to my short messages and have seriously thought about it, even if they are bearish with full positions, at least they will have some expectations in their hearts. Normally, at least half of the bullets are ready to be fired at any time. Those high-quality coins with discounts are right in front of us

First of all, it is clear that this is a healthy adjustment. The bull market is still there. Don't think that the bull market is gone and the bear market is coming. The next wave of BTC will start at at least 90,000. Then, what are the altcoins that have the opportunity to become the leading ones in the next round? From my perspective as a short seller this month, I have thought of many of them. I plan to organize and post them. Let's discuss and see which ones are more reasonable, and then wait to verify the accuracy. Keep paying attention.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Let me tell you about a big mistake I made. SAGA went online a few days ago. I judged that with such a large scale of pledge, it should be similar to the previous projects, and it would be pulled up after going online, so I bought some just a few minutes after it went online. It was really a speculation, because I thought BTC would not fall sharply in the short term. After all, there was the expectation of Hong Kong ETF, but it would inevitably fall, so I planned to play a time difference.
However, this Dogecoin is really a dog. It just didn't pull up when BTC had an expected callback. It doesn't matter if it doesn't pull up. Just take it when you see the profit and run away. Unfortunately, I also made a mistake that most people often make. I knew I should run away but I had to wait. And my cost price was not high, but it developed into self-paralysis.
This is the weakness of human nature. Even if you are always vigilant in your heart, you can't avoid omissions. I was blown up in my early years because of this, and it is also the reason why I dare not leverage now, and it is also the reason why most people play leveraged contracts and blow up.

High-frequency leverage is extremely risky, especially when playing with copycat contracts. If you need two brushes to play with spot, you need two hundred brushes to play with contracts. You must be cautious.
$SAGA $BTC

The sharp drop in BTC has led to the waterfall of altcoins, which is expected.

Everyone knows a little about the various reasons. Here I will talk about the impact of the external environment.
Since the approval of BTC's ETF, BTC is now a super-large technology stock on the Nasdaq, and is increasingly affected by the US stock market. BTC has been fluctuating sideways at a high level for such a long time, and it should have been adjusted normally. The reason why it has not fallen for the past 20 days since March 14 is that it is maintained by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Dog dealers also took the opportunity to lure shorts and longs to carry out these dog operations.

Moreover, BTC has almost doubled its increase. Wall Street's big funds should withdraw their principal or part of the profits with normal thinking. Selling for arbitrage is also a normal and reasonable operation. However, the news that Grayscale sold BTC has become a point widely publicized by big shorts. In fact, the impact of selling on BTC is very limited. What really works is expectations.

In recent days, the non-agricultural data and CPI data in the United States have exceeded expectations, which directly reduced the expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts again and again, and it is even possible to face the worst result and restart the interest rate hike. Therefore, the signal of interest rate cut extension became the last straw that broke the camel's back.

Yesterday, BTC plummeted along with the US stock market.

How will BTC go in the future? One is the view of BitMEX boss Xiaohei. BTC will fall directly to the right place. My prediction is that the 120-day moving average will be around 55,000, which is a very suitable position.
Another is that based on my observation and experience as a short seller for more than 20 days, BTC intends to trade time for space and fluctuate widely. It will never fall below 60,000.
Although I have made two preparations, I prefer the first one because it is simpler and more direct. What do you think?

The cottage is the same as my expectation. Most of the popular cottages have basically been cut in half. However, the sluggish market has not stopped, and the high BTC is always a sword hanging. As long as BTC does not fall to the right place or rise up to get out of the current fluctuation area, the day when the cottage coins are in full bloom will never come.

$BTC $BTC

I think BTC will fall, but I didn't expect it to fall so thoroughly, so resolutely and so quickly. Now that the direction of BTC has been chosen, let's follow the plan.
The bigger direction is bearish, but today's sell-off is so fierce, it stands to reason that there will be a small rebound, but don't go long on the decline, just wait.

When it falls to the right place, everything will be stable again, and everyone will not worry about the high BTC falling at any time. Only then will it be the time for hundreds of coins to be released. It's too sleepy. I will write another article seriously tomorrow.

At that time, I will prepare a few more articles about my bearish BTC since March 14, and the operation trend analysis of the altcoins I observed when I was induced to surrender in the middle, to see if I can pick the leading coin in the next round of bull market.
$BTC $BTC

BTC's trend today is exactly the same as yesterday's blind prediction. It should fluctuate sideways in the next few days. I also saw a big blogger post a message saying that BTC will have major good news in the next few days and will rise to 80,000. It's hard to judge if I don't know.
Anyway, BTC has already stood on the upper edge of the triangle oscillation. If we only judge from the K-line, BTC's trend is still healthy. The probability of rising in the short term is a little higher. I still think there should be a normal and healthy correction in the long cycle.

Let's talk about SAGA, a popular altcoin in recent days. It seems that the news of such a coin has more traffic.
I made a little bit of money after this coin went online for a few minutes, because the scale of the pledge of this coin is too large. FDUSD alone is more than 2 billion, BNB has more than 1.8 million, and the total pledge scale is more than 3 billion US dollars. We don't know about other things, but this total scale makes me have to try it. The continuous decline after going online must be the dealer deliberately suppressing the price. There is no doubt about this. It is also easy to operate. The operation of knocking is illegal in the stock market, but no one cares or asks in the currency market.

I also make a blind prediction analysis.
When SAGA falls to a certain level, it is very likely to pull up straight and directly leave the bottom area. Now don’t look at the people in the square scolding the project party and Binance for not doing anything. There is a funny saying called "three calls for leeks to stay", which means that as long as there are three positive lines, no matter what currency it is, the leeks will be retained, hahahaha

It’s hard to say where it will rise. I feel that it should not be lower than the previous popular projects. After all, the scale and popularity are at the historical peak, and they can catch up with the grand occasion of EOS in those years.

There is also a very simple truth. If a coin that has just been launched and is extremely popular keeps falling, who will benefit... No

The price of stocks runs in the direction of least resistance, so I judge that SAGA will rise (I only include spot) and I don’t know if the leverage can withstand it.

Of course, my butt determines my head, because I also bought it, hahahaha
$BTC
$SAGA

BTC just fell below yesterday's 68,200 and directly fell to 67,500. Now there is a 1-hour bottom divergence, and it should be able to return to yesterday's oscillation range and stand on the 12-hour middle track.

I have a guess that BTC can not only stably stand on the 12-hour middle track of 68,500, but can even return to above 70,000 and break through the upper edge of the triangle oscillation, because the main dog dealers in this wave always do this kind of dog operation of inducing empty and inducing more.
But it will eventually fall. According to the guess of the boss of BitMEX, the time is April 15, which is the tax due date for the Americans. We don't need to delve too deeply into the specific reasons. The predictions of Heige that I have seen for so many years are all correct.
If it falls to the end of April, it is estimated that it will most likely fall to the 120-day moving average position. At that time, it will not be 52,000, but may be 55,000-58,000. Let's take a look.

$BTC $BTC

The BTC trend has completely gone bad, and it is really going to fall towards my initial idea, but there will be a rebound next, but it will still fall in the end.

The idea of ​​falling is still the short message I wrote in the previous few articles. $BTC

I, a big short for more than 20 days, just surrendered yesterday, and BTC fell so much today. This, this, this... . . .

BTC just fell to the 12-hour middle track position. If you can hold it, there is still a chance. Then the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages are glued together, around 68,500. It was an important resistance a few days ago, and it is an important support today. It was a very standard trend that it rose and broke through the upper edge of the oscillating triangle yesterday, and there was a retracement today. I didn't expect it to fall so hard.

It won't happen that BTC will really fall just after I surrender. Before it rose yesterday, I felt that the rise and fall were 73, and now it is 55. If it really falls, it is still my previous opinion. . . .

(High-frequency leverage contracts are extremely risky, so be cautious)

$BTC $BTC

Since March 14, BTC has fallen below the 12-hour middle track. At that time, I was firmly bearish. Indeed, BTC has adjusted, but it did not fall according to the usual routine, which is what I have always said, falling below 60,000, 55,000, and the lowest 52,000. During this period, BTC was strongly sideways, and many positions could have directly fallen below the support, but they did not. If it does not fall when it should, there must be something wrong. Is it really going to trade time for space and not fall? I, a big bear for more than 20 days, want to surrender. $BTC

Super high level sideways market, luring more and more bearish, nothing to say, I can only say that the dog dealer is really awesome $BTC