The time rules of the four bull markets in history tell you: the peak time and price of the next bull market from 2024 to 2025. Bitcoin has experienced a total of 3 halvings and 4 bull markets. In 14 years of ups and downs, Bitcoin has experienced a total of 3 times. After halving production and 4 bull markets, the next halving will be on April 22, 2024.
The first halving: 2012-11-28
The second halving: 2016-07-10
The third halving: 2020-05-12
The fourth halving: 2024-04-22
2013-2017
❶ From the 2013 high to the 2017 high: about 211 bars on the weekly chart, 1477 days
❷ From the bottom in 2015 to the bottom in 2018: about 205 bars per week, 1435 days.
2017-2021
❸ From 2017 high to 2021 high: approximately 204 bars per week, 1428 days.
❹ From the bottom in 2018 to the bottom in 2022: about 205 bars per week, 1435 days.
Bear to Bull time span
❺ From the bottom in 2015 to the top in 2017, the weekly line is about 152 bars, 1064 days
❻ From the bottom in 2018 to the top in 2021, the weekly line is about 151 bars, 1060 days
Bear to bull time increase
From the lowest point of 152.4 dollars in January 2015 to the highest point of 19892 dollars in December 2017, the weekly line is about 152 bars, 1064 days, and the increase is about 123 times.
From the lowest point of $3,122 in December 2018 to the highest point of $69,000 in November 2021, the weekly line is about 151 bars, 1,060 days, and the increase is about 20 times.
Summary: You can simply understand that the time span between bull market highs, the time span of bear market bottoms, and the time span from bear market bottom to bull market highs are the same.
The retracement magnitude of each bear market is the same
First round of bull market, highest $32, retracement 94%
The second round of the bull market, the highest in 2013 was $1163, and the retracement was 87%.
The third round of bull market, the highest in 2017 was $19892, with a retracement of 84%
The fourth round of bull market, with a maximum of $69,000 in 2022 and a 78% retracement
Calculating the data sequentially, I believe that the lowest point of 15,479 in November 2022, a time span of about 1,400 days, will peak from October to December 2025, and the increase in the first two rounds of bull markets at the highest price is also getting smaller and smaller, with a discount of about 8 times, which is 120000.
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