Unlike previous halving events, where Bitcoin usually reaches new highs before the halving event, this time the crypto asset had already hit a new high earlier this month.
As March draws to a close, the countdown to the crypto industry’s most anticipated event, the 2024 Bitcoin halving, has begun. Analysts estimate that the next halving event on the Bitcoin network may occur between April 19 and 20 this year, 30 days from today.
This incident is expected to have a significant impact on the entire digital asset market and the Bitcoin (BTC) price trajectory. But, here's what you need to know about it.
What is the BTC halving?
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event scheduled to occur every four years or every 210,000 blocks mined on the Layer 1 blockchain.
This year, the upcoming halving will occur at block height 840,000.
During the halving, the rewards for Bitcoin miners to verify transactions and secure the network will be cut in half.
This reduction in mining rewards is intended to control the amount of newly issued BTC in circulation while ensuring that the total supply of Bitcoin remains at a preset upper limit of 21 million. .
The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, four years after the protocol launched in January 2009. At that time, miners’ block rewards were reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block.
The network has experienced four halvings so far, including the upcoming one next month. During the event, miners will be rewarded 3.125 BTC per block, compared to 6.25 BTC in 2020.
Historical impact of halvings on Bitcoin price
Historically, Bitcoin halving events have had a significant impact on BTC prices.
In the months leading up to the halving, speculation and expectations increase in the market, which could push the price of Bitcoin higher. After the halving occurs, there is usually a period of price consolidation, followed by a bull run that usually drives the Bitcoin price to a new all-time high (ATH).
For example, after the last halving in 2020, the 2021 bull run saw BTC prices approaching $70,000 and a market cap as high as $1 trillion.
Ethereum (ether), the industry’s second-largest digital asset, hit an all-time high of $4,379. Other alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) are also growing in popularity, including Meme coins. The total value of the entire crypto industry has exceeded $3 trillion for the first time in the history of emerging markets.
This move attracted many new crypto enthusiasts into the industry, leading to mass adoption of BTC. Countries like El Salvador even made crypto assets legal tender in September 2021, becoming the first country to do so.
That same year, Elon Musk joined the cryptocurrency bandwagon, adopting Dogecoin (DOGE). Likewise, interest in the non-fungible token (NFT) space skyrocketed in 2021 when an artist named Beeple, Mike Winkelmann, converted his artwork into NFTs. The digital artwork titled "Everydays: The First 5000 Days" sold for $69 million.
Expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024
However, upcoming events may differ from past cycles. Unlike previous halving events, where Bitcoin usually reaches new highs before the halving event, this time the crypto asset had already hit a new high earlier this month.
Bitcoin surpassed its previous high of $69,000 last week to reach over $73,000, deviating from its typical pattern in previous halving cycles.
This early price surge has been attributed to a variety of factors, including increased institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and Bitcoin’s growing mainstream acceptance.
Additionally, the new approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the market has also led to a surge in Bitcoin prices.
Analysts are warning investors to be careful due to this new trend, as there is no clear pattern of how Bitcoin will react after the halving event, especially given that market conditions differ significantly compared to previous halvings . .
Earlier this week, analysts at Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin is approaching a critical stage known as the "danger zone." Market experts claimed that Bitcoin was known to retrace at this stage just days before the halving took place.
Analysts said: "Historically, Bitcoin will undergo a pre-halving retracement 14-28 days before the halving." #比特币减半 #价格影响
