Potential relief bounce expected, US government may shut down👀
Looking ahead, we might see a relief bounce into month-end as we saw with the SPX yesterday, and a variety of short-term technical indicators are flashing oversold signals across both bonds and fixed income. With that being said, we think the only suitable positions for the current market are simply flat or short, and knife-catching to be an exercise in futility. Furthermore, the US govt does appear to be heading into a partial shut-down as early as this weekend as the GOP does not appear to be able to come up with a consensus, adding significant uncertainty to a market that is already reeling from a maelstrom of unfriendly macro forces.
#SPX #bonds #shutdown #GOP #macro

SPX equity breadth has sharply declined, and expectations for future market volatility have intensified☕
The correlated weakening of bonds + equities has led to a terrible performance of common 'risk parity' strategies in September so far, worsening the risk-off tone and leading to significant forced-selling pressures. SPX equity breadth has collapsed materially with just ~40% of stocks trading above it's 200d moving average, with the synchronized weakening in equities, bond prices, credit CDS, and EM FX helping to reiterate the 'cash is king' mantra for 2023. Furthermore, unlike in the crypto space, cross-asset volatilities have started to rise again, with jumps in equity VIX and rate vol being the most obvious as we have rebounded to the pre-summer highs.
Looking ahead, expect price action to be exceptionally choppy as short-term oversold conditions are balanced against a tricky quarter-end and the ongoing UAW strikes and government shutdown shenanigans. October likely won't see much reprieve early on, so we will continue to adopt a cautious/net bearish approach to our own risk management in the meantime.
#bonds #SPX #VIX #governmentshutdown #macro

The economic data is weak, and the market doesn't look promising.👀
Much of the same as previous days, where the combination of weaker data (home sales -8.7% in August, lowest since March, US consumer confidence -5.7 points, lowest since May), imminent govt shutdown risks, rating downgrade threats from Moody's, and overall risk deleveraging stymiyed SPX's early attempts at a recovery, to close another -1.5% lower on the session.
#ConsumerConfidence #GovtShutdown #MoodysDowngrade #RiskDeleveraging #SPX

#SPX On Daily TF level the price action is forming out Bullish Harmonic Shark Pattern level where the D leg is yet to complete out 🤝

#Binance #crypto2023 #dyor #BTC

#BTC #DXY #SPX

What do we call this pattern? #BTC #SPX #Binance #ETH #BNB

It's always simple, but some people love to overcomplicate things

#Bitcoin #BTC #SPX #DXY

Another attempt to break that downtrend channel on #SPX 🔥

Breakout wouldn't mean #bullmarket , but it would be definitely positive sign for the #cryptomarket 🔥

Let's go🚀

#NASDAQ 12.290

#SPX 4045

#BTC $22.400

#TOTAL $986.900 B

$TOTAL2 $554.300 B

#DXY 104.500

#SPX chart looks like others...it is pulling back waiting for the market to show the way. I like area around 0.50 USD in case of #BTC bounce at 28K USD. In case of further dump of #bitcoin I will look at those green lines from 0.3735 USD to 0.3379 USD. #trading #Binance

#ETH $1825 is holding the near term price.
August 11, 2022 I care about this pin 🤝
#Bitcoin #SPX & #Nasdaq diverged from charts. #CPI data will determine the direction in the short term on Wednesday.

#DXY down, #SPX up, #Bitcoin down. Total break of correlation. All that cause of Silvergate? Really doubt it can be the same scale as FTX crash. Nevertheless the move is done and now #BTC has a gap at 22.9-23.1k range where price will be attracted for revisit. On weekly still ok

This is an interesting metric to consider. #SPX looks pretty decent imo. I would anticipate a pull back in April and then a run towards the larger degree range into June (4300 area). Would likely drag #bitcoin upwards into mid year too, which is why 30ks is achievable.

#BTC

📈On the SPX/1-day chart, on the contrary, the bullish trend of US stocks starts from the triangle. In the final analysis, our attitude is always bullish, and short-term fluctuations do not affect us

#SPX

S&P500 doesn't look that bad. In fact its on an edge of bullish breakout with two small target zones in a distance of one candle move - 4203-4218 and 4260-4275. Another one higher is for more bullish scenario: 4390-4444

#SPX #SP500 #tradingstocks #stocks

At present, we have come to the 0.618 of the whole section of the bull and bear, where more consolidation is needed. There may be callbacks

#SPX $BTC

US stock index drops, employment expectations might be disappointing😱

Today's NFP expectations have undoubtedly been raised thanks to ADP's blow-out figures, though GS warns that June's data seasonality tends to be more restrictive for payroll growth, so there might be scope for disappointment against elevated expectations. On the equity side, all SPX sub-sectors were in the red yesterday as equities were sold on worries of a renewed and sustained higher move back in yields. Furthermore, survey data from JPM shows institutional money manager exposures at back close to all time highs, with markets ill-positioned for unexpected sell-off here should we get one in the 3rd quarter.

#NFP #ADP #payroll #SPX #JPM

The #SPX index closed on a bullish note yesterday, and the monthly close also remained above the 30k level, indicating that we are still within a bullish channel. However, #BTC has not yet followed the SPX pump, but there is a possibility of a weekend surge as the #US market is closed. We may witness BTC #pumping to catch up, followed by a minor correction on Monday evening. Stay tuned!

US stocks surge📢📢📢

US stock markets closed the month up at blistering +6.47% beating out the already sensational performance in January, and bringing the YTD performance to +15.9%. Friday’s quarter-end mark saw an 87% up-day, with every single SPX sub-sector closing in the red, while interest rates also fell by around 3bp in the 10yr to register a double win-win for classic 60/40 portfolios across the globe. One couldn’t have asked for a much better report card to end the first-half on a winning note.

#YTD #stockmarkets #SPX

The stock market is facing pressure, with expectations of profit declining in the second quarter 👀 👀

Stocks had a very poor late day close with some potential bearish daily chart patterns. Meanwhile, as stocks continue to figure out how they want to behave in the face of a resurgence in bond yields, the Q2 earnings season will kick off this week with financials, with the week of the 28th being the busiest week in terms of reporting by market-cap, and 80% of SPX will have reported results by August 7th. Q2 earnings are expected to trough at -9% YoY with rapid improvements seen by Q4 (+8%), though we wouldn't be surprised to see many positive beats again, especially in light of the recent strength in economic momentum.

#StockMarket #stocks #bond #SPX #financial