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Bitcoin ($BTC ) almost hit the 60,000 mark in the early session yesterday, which represents a more than -50% crash from its October 2025 $126000 All Time High (ATH).

Is it happening too soon?
Given that we haven't even completed 4 months since the ATH, the question that arises is this: Is this crash happening too soon??

Short answer: YES.

And the reason is simple and has to do with the market's macro technicals. Today's $60k Low isn't just a -50% drop from the ATH, but it is also taking place extremely close to its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 1W RSI turned oversold (below 30.00). All this is just the second week after losing the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which has been holding as the Support in almost the past 3 months of the 1W MA50 - 1W MA100 consolidation Rectangle.

The 1W MA200 and oversold RSI
That consolidation Rectangle has always served as the pattern that transitioned BTC from its early to the final stage of its Bear Cycle. However, this is the soonest occasion historically that Bitcoin reaches its 1W MA200 from an ATH. On the 2014 Bear Cycle it took 59 weeks to do so, on the 2018 Bear Cycle, 51 weeks (both were Cycle bottoms), on the 2022 Cycle, almost half the time, 31 weeks, not a Cycle bottom. And now we are 'just' 17 weeks (119 days) after. Needless to say, it is also the soonest it hit an oversold 1W RSI state, something that has historically coincided with a 1W MA200 test, so that's consistent.

So what now?
So what does this historically earliest crash mean for us today? Well, most likely, we still have a long way to go. Given this aggressive drop, the market should continue to test at least the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which is where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed in November 2022 (took almost as much time as the 1W MA50 - 1W MA100 consolidation Rectangle did from he moment the 1W MA200 broke) and we expect that to be around $48000 by May - June 2026.

However, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, the Bear Cycle bottom should be around late September- October 2026. So practically the bottom could be even lower (potentially the 1W MA500 even as we presented on an analysis last month).

So what do you think? Is the fact that crashed too soon to its 1W MA200 alarming? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
#WhenWillBTCRebound #TrendingTopic

Thank you for your attention! This is exactly what you've been hearing since September 2025. Next, we'll form the bottom, and reaccumulate until October.

A smart person told me to stop posting publicly. Make everything private, but I continue to publish my thoughts for you.
There are no entry points for positions here; my positions are elsewhere.

Right now, it’s still too early to talk about any meaningful reversal. We’re not in a recovery phase - we’re in phase two of the market cycle, and this phase tends to last longer than most expect. The structure is forming exactly as it should: slowly, unevenly, with pockets of stress that haven’t fully played out yet.

Bitcoin is dropping, but for me there’s nothing surprising in this move.
If you’ve been following my posts for a while, you know this scenario was not only possible

— it was highly probable. We’ve already reached the first target zones I highlighted earlier, and the market is now moving toward the deeper structural points that complete this segment of the cycle.

There are still shocks ahead, and the system hasn’t finished recalibrating.
This is not a trend market — this is a regime market. And regime markets demand patience, discipline, and the ability to read liquidity, not headlines.

2026: A Year of Market Regimes

2026 feels like a year defined by regimes, not direction.
This is a market that punishes overconfidence and rewards discipline: managing leverage, staying patient, and understanding liquidity matter more than any narrative.

Liquidity today behaves like a system of pipes. Sometimes the taps look wide open, yet the internal pressure shifts so fast that trends break long before the crowd can explain the move with headlines.

In these phases, Bitcoin behaves not like a “legend”, but like the most liquid proxy for risk:
under stress, it’s the first asset sold because reducing exposure through BTC is the easiest and fastest way.

This leads to a key insight:

Even during superficially “risk-on” news cycles, BTC can underperform when several forces align:

- rising demand for USD (dollar squeeze)

- carry trades unwinding

- capital rotating into leading sectors (metals, indices)

- portfolios cutting risk and closing leverage

Three Structural Scenarios for 2026

I avoid guessing levels; instead, I work with structural patterns. For 2026, I see three core possibilities:

1) Capitulation → Base Formation

A sharp washout, volatility climax, then a broad range and gradual base building.

2) Rallies Within a Larger Downtrend

Strong upside moves that turn into distribution.
The market gives hope — and takes it back on retests.

3) Macro Shock

An event in FX, rates, or liquidity triggers fast deleveraging.
Moves overshoot, correlations spike, and a violent mean reversion follows.

This is why my approach now is very simple:
fewer trades, higher quality.

I’m deliberately reducing the number of positions and focusing only on moments where structure provides a clear edge — because in years like this, capital is preserved not by activity, but by the right pauses.

About the Academy

In parallel, I’m updating my Academy in real time: weekly materials, market structure breakdowns, liquidity updates, USD dynamics, and risk indicators.

The access is open and free — anyone can stay aligned with the current regime without noise.

Current Market Structure

Looking at today’s structure, the market is forming precisely the segment I expected.
The key volume level ahead remains intact, and with high probability, price will break through it. Only after that expansion may we see the formation of the first real leg of the next cycle.

The conservative zones I mentioned earlier remain valid. More negative scenarios exist, yes — but the underlying logic does not change:

Accumulate gradually — on fear, liquidations, and liquidity distortions.
The main zone is very close, and that is where, in my view, the most interesting continuation setup will appear.
#BTC #TrendingTopic #bitcoin

When traders look at Bitcoin, many think the biggest risk is financial loss. But in reality, $BTC isn’t just a trap for your money — it’s a trap for your emotions. The volatile nature of crypto markets triggers fear, greed, and impulsive decisions more than it threatens your actual capital.

1️⃣ Emotional Trading: The Real Trap

Bitcoin’s price can swing 5–10% in a single day. This volatility can make even experienced traders second-guess their strategies. Emotional reactions like panic selling during dips or FOMO buying during rallies often lead to losses, even for traders who understand market fundamentals.

2️⃣ Understanding Market Psychology

Success in Bitcoin trading isn’t just about numbers—it’s about mindset. Traders who control their emotions and stick to clear entry and exit strategies outperform those who react to price spikes. Recognizing the psychological traps of fear and greed is key to staying consistent.

3️⃣ Strategies to Avoid Emotional Traps
Plan your trades: Set clear entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels.Stick to your strategy: Avoid impulsive decisions based on market hype.Journal your trades: Track decisions and emotions to learn patterns.Use technical indicators wisely: RSI, FVG, and support/resistance levels can guide decisions without emotional bias.
4️⃣ Why Long-Term Mindset Wins
Traders focused solely on short-term profits are more prone to emotional mistakes. A long-term mindset, combined with disciplined risk management, can transform Bitcoin from an emotional trap into a strategic opportunity.

💡 Key Takeaway:
Bitcoin doesn’t steal your money—it exposes your emotional weaknesses. The best traders aren’t those who predict every price move, but those who control fear and greed, sticking to their plan regardless of market chaos.

Always DYOR & Trade Bitcoin with a long-term mindset here 👇🏼

#MarketRally #TrendingTopic

Market Context and Historical Symmetry
Bitcoin has a tendency to move in recognizable cycles, and what stands out right now is the near-perfect similarity between the previous bull market correction and the current one. During the 2021 cycle, price retraced approximately 52% from the all-time high before establishing a mid term bear market low. That level ultimately became the foundation for the next impulsive expansion.

Fast forward to today, and we are seeing almost the exact same percentage decline from the 2025 all-time high. A 52% correction is not just a random statistic, it reflects a deep but structurally healthy retracement within a broader macro trend. When markets repeat this type of behavior, it often signals that larger participants are positioning rather than abandoning the trend entirely.

Why the Current Zone Matters
The present price region is technically significant because it represents both psychological and structural support. Sharp selloffs typically aim to force weak hands out of the market, while stronger capital accumulates at discounted prices.

If this level holds, it strengthens the narrative that Bitcoin may already be forming its mid term bear market low. What makes this especially compelling is the speed of the decline, capitulation-style moves often precede powerful relief rallies as liquidity flips direction.

This is not about predicting an immediate reversal, but about recognizing that the risk-to-reward profile begins to improve dramatically after a correction of this magnitude.

The 46% Relief Rally Scenario
After the 2021 mid term low was established, Bitcoin rallied roughly 46%. If price were to mirror that behavior again, a similar percentage move from the current low would drive price directly into the Daily Fair Value Gap left behind during the aggressive leg down.

This alignment is important.

Fair Value Gaps act as magnets for price because they represent inefficiencies created by institutional urgency. Markets frequently revisit these zones to rebalance order flow before deciding on the next directional move.

A 46% expansion into that imbalance would not only be technically clean, it would also reflect classic cycle behavior, sharp drop, strong relief rally, then continuation.

Daily Imbalance as the Technical Target
The daily FVG overhead is more than just a chart feature, it represents unfinished business. When price leaves a gap during displacement, it often returns to mitigate it before larger players re-engage.

Should Bitcoin rally into this region, traders should pay close attention to price behavior inside the gap. Acceptance above it would suggest stronger-than-expected bullish momentum, while rejection would reinforce the idea that the broader corrective phase is not yet complete.

Confluence between the historical 46% rebound and the location of this imbalance gives the upside scenario additional credibility.

Cycle Continuation and the 34K Projection
If Bitcoin continues to respect the previous cycle structure, the relief rally would likely be followed by another leg lower. Historically, markets rarely bottom in a single move, they tend to form complex accumulation ranges with multiple expansions and retracements.

Following the analog, a rejection from the daily imbalance could send price toward the 34K region. That area would become a logical candidate for a higher timeframe accumulation phase, especially if liquidity builds beneath it.

This type of sequence, capitulation, relief rally, secondary drop, is characteristic of mid cycle bear markets rather than full macro reversals.

Conclusion
The striking similarity between the previous 52% correction and the current one provides a powerful framework for anticipating potential price behavior. While no cycle repeats perfectly, markets often echo prior structures because participant psychology remains constant.

A relief rally of roughly 46% into the daily Fair Value Gap would be the first confirmation that history may be rhyming once again. From there, traders should remain prepared for volatility, as a subsequent move toward the 34K region could complete the broader corrective pattern before the next major expansion begins.

Recognizing these patterns early allows traders to shift from emotional reactions to strategic positioning, which is ultimately where consistency is built.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #TrendingTopic

It is my belief that this is the crypto bear market year.

The featured chart includes my own logarithmic regression bands fitted to the price, with an overlay of the / chart. I believe this model provides useful price ranges for buy zones, currently around $1,910.6. Because ETH is still a relatively new asset, this regression band offers a reasonable fit for its growth, and therefore helps identify areas of opportunity.

However, it is also important to consider the performance of BTC when manoeuvring the cryptocurrency asset class. The blue ETH/BTC graph clearly shows an outperformance of BTC since the 2022 bear market, and as we enter the 2026 bear market I believe this trend will continue. BTC.D should keep respecting the support line, as monetary policy is not yet favouring altcoins and could head higher as BTC outperforms on both sides of the market.

As a result, my portfolio will mainly be aimed at accumulating BTC over the bear market (50% BTC), with a smaller allocation to ETH (35%).

The purple box represents an area of support for ETH/BTC, where ETH could finally reverse in the later part of the year as monetary policy improves.

To conclude:
-Crypto remains in a bear market, and the four-year cycle still appears to be intact.
-BTC.D should keep rising as people mainly buy Bitcoin dips and sell alts.
-ETH enters a buy zone.
-BTC enters a zone of interest (below $65k) and should head lower into a buy zone (200W SMA) after a possible counter-trend rally.

Additional notes:
I will be working on more free scripts, which will be discussed in the future.
Trade ETH here 👇🏼
#eth #WhaleDeRiskETH #TrendingTopic

The Crypto whale unrealized losses chart is brutal at first glance. Red bars, nine-figure losses, and some of the biggest names in crypto sitting deep underwater. But look closer — this data doesn’t scream collapse. It signals conviction at scale.

The Data No One Is Talking About
This snapshot compares unrealized losses across major crypto whales and institutions:
Bitmine: ~$7.9B unrealized loss in $ETH Strategy: ~$5.9B unrealized loss in $BTC Trump Media: ~$473M unrealized lossVitalik Buterin: ~$350M unrealized lossTron Inc.: ~$22M unrealized lossCypherpunk: ~$14M unrealized lossMurad: ~$12.7M unrealized lossCZ: ~$0.8M unrealized loss in $BTC
The distribution matters. Losses aren’t isolated to one bad actor or overleveraged fund — they span institutions, founders, public companies, and long-term builders. This is systemic drawdown, not individual failure.
What the Chart Really Tells Us
If panic selling were the correct response, these entities would have exited long ago. Instead, the losses remain unrealized. That’s the key signal.
Large players don’t survive by reacting emotionally. They size positions to withstand volatility and hold through macro compression. When unrealized losses reach this magnitude across multiple whales at once, it usually reflects:
Late-cycle fearExhausted sellersPrice far below long-term perceived value
Historically, clusters of whale drawdowns like this tend to appear closer to bottoms than tops.
Time Horizon Is the Edge
Retail traders experience these numbers as fear. Whales experience them as variance.
The difference isn’t information — it’s time horizon. Whales aren’t trading weeks or months; they’re positioning for structural shifts. They understand that volatility is the cost of exposure to asymmetric upside.
Also, notice the imbalance:
Billions in unrealized losses… yet no forced liquidation cascade. That alone suggests balance sheets are strong and conviction remains intact.
The Real Risk
The biggest mistake retail makes isn’t being wrong — it’s exiting at maximum pessimism. Selling when losses are unrealized turns temporary pain into permanent damage.
This chart isn’t a signal to fear whales.
It’s a reminder that smart money bleeds quietly — and waits.
If the largest holders are still standing in the red, maybe the smarter move isn’t panic…maybe it’s patience.

#MarketCorrection #RiskAssetsMarketShock #TrendingTopic