夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

$ZEC Looks like it’s happening again—only a few coins go against the trend and turn into strong assets
The privacy-coin market cycle hasn’t ended yet

Today, the entire crypto market’s total value briefly fell by nearly 4%. BTC, ETH, and SOL all pulled back, but market funds are still discussing privacy coins like ZEC and XMR.

ZEC previously surged to a new 8-year high near $888, then returned to a range below $820 for consolidation.

I actually think this kind of movement is healthier than rising in a straight line every day.

The traditional-money entry from ETFs has already been opened, and the privacy-coin narrative has once again been noticed by the market. What ZEC really needs to do now is to absorb the profit-taking positions left behind by that rapid 40%+ rally earlier.

If it can keep holding steady around $800, I’ll continue waiting for the second attempt to challenge $880.

Once $880 truly breaks through, first watch for $1,000.
My target is still $1,100.

$ZEC

$ETH fell back to 2400
But this time I’m more interested in whether it can rise independently and strengthen

Today ETH has returned to around $2410, down about 2% over the past 24 hours. After pushing toward 2500, it clearly met some selling pressure.

There’s another change to pay attention to recently:
The demand for ETH ETFs, which was very strong earlier, has started to cool off. Combined with an increase in whale transfers, the short-term liquidity situation is no longer as impressive as it was at the end of August.

So right now, the range between 2400 and 2500 is going to be extremely critical.

If $BTC continues to correct, then ETH can hold 2400 and later break back above $2550—that would truly prove that capital is starting to trade ETH independently. On the technical side, the next target after the break also points back to around 2800.

Don’t rush to guess $3000 over the next few days. First, let’s see whether ETH can withstand BTC’s pullback.

If it can hold up, then the altcoin rally ahead will be much more interesting.

$ETH

$SOL fell back to $100
I, instead, started paying attention again

SOL today followed the entire crypto market lower, at one point reaching around $100, with a 24-hour drop of more than 3%.

But this month, SOL has an important catalyst.

Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade has entered the activation phase, and it’s currently planned to launch on September 28. One of the biggest changes in this upgrade is further improving Solana’s confirmation speed and consensus mechanism.

Add to that the earlier inflation reduction proposal passing, and SOL is now actually improving two issues at the same time:
The network is getting faster, and the rate of new token supply growth is slowing down.

So around the $100 mark, I won’t turn bearish just because of a one-day pullback.

If BTC can later stabilize again, I think SOL—this large-cap alt that has ETF inflows, an upgrade catalyst, and improved supply dynamics—will still be a coin worth watching in September.

$SOL $BTC

Gold falls to $4,300
I start buying some on the dip

$XAUT After gold surged to around $4,700, it finally saw a fairly meaningful round of correction.

Today spot gold is already hovering around $4,300, hitting a new low for more than three weeks, and it has been weak for the fourth consecutive trading day. The main pressure still comes from inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices, as well as higher U.S. Treasury yields. At present, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in September is around 67%.

But after it drops to this level, my strategy actually starts to change.
Near $4,700, I won’t chase. After a pullback from the highs of nearly $400, I’ll begin buying some gold around $4,300.

Of course, I won’t put all my position in at once.
Because the current gold price has already broken below the 200-day moving average—if $4,300 is lost again, there’s another level worth watching near $4,200.

So my plan is simple:
First, pick up some near $4,300; if it really gives way to $4,200, then buy more.
The long-term gold thesis hasn’t changed—it's just that I’ve finally waited for a much more comfortable level than $4,700.

$XAUT $XAU

Bitcoin starts to come under sustained pressure
Recently, we really can’t just keep thinking about buying the dip.

$BTC has already returned to around $77,400. The entire crypto market’s total market cap has fallen nearly 4% over the past 24 hours.

I’ve been reminding everyone to pay attention to ETF fund flows, and now there’s another signal worth watching:

In the most recent trading day, BTC ETF saw another net outflow of about $35.3 million.
However, over the past 7 days combined, there is still a net inflow of more than $1.1 billion, so we still can’t directly define this as institutions exiting.

The real trouble is the external environment.
Oil prices are rising, U.S. Treasury yields are climbing, and expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up again. This kind of environment itself tends to suppress risk assets like BTC.

So right now, I’m a bit more cautious about BTC than I was at the end of August.

$77,000 is the first line of defense.
If it holds here and we manage to regain the $80,000 level, I still view this as high-level consolidation.

If the ETF continues to see outflows, and $77,000 also can’t hold, then this correction may still need to move lower.

$BTC

SanDisk is getting stronger again
The AI storage market may not be over yet

$SNDK Recently, capital has started flowing back again. In the previous trading day, the stock rose intraday by more than 5% at one point. Behind it is not only the renewed enthusiasm for AI—enterprise SSDs are entering a new phase of volume expansion.

Right now, the market is truly pricing in the storage demand driven by AI and a tightening in NAND supply. Mizuho still rates SanDisk as Outperform. Although the target price has slightly declined from $1,900 to $1,875, it expects SanDisk’s earnings for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 could grow by about 5x.

Also, SanDisk and Kioxia have just announced plans to invest about $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand flash memory production capacity.

Earlier, I mentioned that at this level investors could lock in some gains in the near term—mainly because this year’s rally has already been too dramatic. But in the long run, AI-driven demand for storage is not over.

SanDisk’s biggest issue right now isn’t fundamentals, but rather that the good stuff has already been priced very expensively by the market.

$SNDKB

NVIDIA has made another move.

This time, it directly invested $3.5 billion to buy TSMC’s convertible bonds. The two sides will further cooperate on AI infrastructure, AI PCs, and smart vehicles.

But I think what’s truly important isn’t the $3.5 billion.

Now, giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are all developing their own AI chips. In theory, this could eventually threaten NVIDIA’s GPU position.

NVIDIA’s strategy, however, is quite smart:
You can build your own chips, but it’s still best to connect to my NVLink and the entire AI infrastructure.

That’s also why NVIDIA has started supporting ASIC players like MediaTek. In the future, what it wants to control may not be just GPUs, but the entire ecosystem of AI data centers.

$NVDAB $BTC $SNDKB #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元

OpenAI has another money-making machine

The ChatGPT advertising business went live less than 200 days ago, and its annualized revenue has already surpassed $1 billion. It now covers 40+ countries, with tens of thousands of advertisers using it.

Even more astonishingly, OpenAI’s ad revenue target for this year is already seeing $2.5 billion, while ChatGPT currently has more than 1 billion weekly active users.

I think this is where AI’s real power becomes terrifying.

Previously, everyone thought OpenAI mainly makes money from subscriptions and APIs. But once it reaches the 1-billion-user scale and starts commercializing, advertising, e-commerce, and enterprise services can all be plugged in.

The biggest AI business model may only just be starting to get unearthed.

$WLD $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin ETF sees a $200 million re-inflow
But what you really need to be careful about today is U.S. Treasuries

$BTC After entering September, it has been hovering around the $78,000 level. Today, there’s good news: after one day of net outflows, the latest U.S. spot BTC ETF has turned back to a net inflow of $216.7 million, including BlackRock’s IBIT alone attracting about $205.9 million.

But I think what you truly need to watch today isn’t the ETF anymore.

Oil prices have surged back above $90, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up to 4.78%, and market expectations for a September Fed rate hike have clearly heated up. BTC tested as low as about $77,200 overnight.

So I’m not going to be too aggressive with BTC in the short term.

The good side is that BTC in August is up 24%. When the market is consolidating at high levels, the open interest for perpetual futures has actually fallen to the low level since May, suggesting leverage hasn’t been piled up crazily.

Next, if it can hold around 77,000, I’ll keep waiting for it to reclaim 80,000. If 77,000 is lost, then you need to guard against a deeper pullback.

$BTC

The pace at which traditional finance is opening up to cryptocurrencies is accelerating.

Charles Schwab plans to add $SOL , $AVAX , and $LINK to its crypto trading platform. Previously, it mainly offered BTC and ETH trading. Schwab currently serves nearly 39 million accounts, managing customer assets of about $13.1 trillion.

I think the truly important part of this news is that Wall Street is continuing to expand outward from BTC and ETH.

In the past, the institutional world mostly only recognized BTC; later it accepted ETH. Now SOL, LINK, and even AVAX are starting to enter the trading scope of traditional brokerages.

With each additional entry point from traditional finance, the pool of funds that altcoins can access expands again.

If this trend continues, I believe that in the next altcoin bull cycle, a portion of the biggest incremental funding could genuinely come from traditional investors who previously never touched altcoins.

$SOL Suddenly sees a major positive development
Future liquidity will directly accelerate in its reduction

I think the SIMD-0411 that Solana passed this time is good news for people who plan to hold SOL long term.

The core of this proposal is very simple: it accelerates the rate at which SOL inflation declines. Previously, Solana’s annual inflation rate would decrease at a rate of about 15%; now it’s increased to 30%. That means the SOL newly entering the market will be reduced more quickly.

Based on current progress, SOL’s inflation rate is around 3.87%. The new mechanism is expected to bring it down faster to the long-term target of 1.5%.

This change won’t make SOL suddenly surge in the short term, but the long-term logic is easy to understand:

The network keeps growing, while the amount of new tokens keeps getting smaller.

Plus, recently, SOL ETF fund inflows have started to become clearly noticeable. I think this Solana cycle is not just about a price rebound— the overall logic on the supply side is gradually improving too.

#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过

$ETH Now the biggest advantage
is that the money of $BTC has truly started coming in

BTC has recently fallen back below $80,000, but ETH’s fund performance is clearly stronger.

Over the past week, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $924 million; over the same period, ETH ETFs pulled in roughly $824 million. Given that ETH’s market cap is far smaller than BTC’s, this amount of capital is actually extremely staggering.

Moreover, ETH ETFs have been experiencing net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days. Even on the day BTC had a single-day net outflow of $202 million, ETH still saw net inflows of about $102 million.

This is why I’m paying increasing attention to ETH right now.

Capital hasn’t fully left the crypto market—it’s simply being redistributed between BTC and ETH.

What ETH truly needs to address now is $2,500.

As long as this level can truly hold, I think the next leg can begin with a serious look at the $2,800 to $3,000 range.

#比特币守稳78000美元上方 #比特币8月上涨23%跑赢黄金股市 #

Gold plunges from 4700 to 4450
I actually feel this pullback is important

After pushing up toward the 4700 area at the beginning, these past two days finally brought a fairly noticeable round of correction.

Today, spot gold is around $4455. Even last Friday, it fell more than 3% in a single day. The main reason is that Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was somewhat hawkish, and market expectations for a September rate hike have heated up again.

But interestingly, even after this round of sharp sell-off, gold is still up more than 10% overall in August—still the strongest month since January this year.

So I won’t assume the market is over just because gold has dropped back to 4450.

The move up from 4700 happened too fast in the first place, and it was necessary to flush out the chasing funds.

If it can stabilize again around the 4350 area, I would start paying attention to the next opportunity.

The long-term logic for gold has not disappeared just because of a two-day pullback.

$BTC $XAU $XAUT

Crude oil suddenly surges back above $90
Middle East risks are back again

A few days ago, the market was still trading the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation—then the situation changed again over the weekend.

The U.S. once again attacked an Iranian target near the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Today, Brent crude rose by more than 3% at one point, breaking back above $90, while WTI also returned to around $85.

This is exactly why I felt earlier that you shouldn’t be too quick to turn bearish on crude oil.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transport. As long as there isn’t genuine stability restored here, there will always be a layer of war premium embedded in oil prices.

So the most troublesome part for crude oil right now is that news can move the price in a single direction day by day.

If negotiations make progress, it falls. If military conflict escalates, it jumps up immediately.

After crude oil manages to stand back above $90, we have to keep a close watch again on the Middle East line.

$CL $BTC

$ZEC This round’s most important thing isn’t that it’s rising to 800.

It’s that Wall Street can finally buy.

Before, ZEC surged from below $600 all the way to nearly $880, followed by a pullback of about 10%. But I think what truly changes the valuation logic for this round is, in fact, the official launch of ZCSH.

Grayscale’s Zcash ETF has already started trading on NYSE Arca. It currently holds about 393,000 ZEC at the highest point, worth over $260 million.

One of the biggest limitations of privacy coins used to be that traditional capital couldn’t easily participate directly.

Now that entry has been opened.

For the short term, ZEC will still likely keep shaking out. Especially since the open interest in the futures market once approached $1.8 billion, meaning leverage isn’t low.

But as long as this pullback doesn’t break the trend, my view hasn’t changed.

First, break back above 880, then look at 1000. I’m still ultimately waiting for $1,100.

$BTC

Bitcoin surged 24% in August,
but in September I’ll actually start being more cautious.

$BTC was extremely strong in August—rising all the way from around $60,000 to break through $80,000. The monthly gain is about 24%, making it the best-performing month so far this year.

But entering September, I’ll start paying closer attention to risks.
Right now, BTC is back around $78,500. Meanwhile, exchange BTC balances are starting to increase. On Binance, BTC reserves have risen to about 687,000 coins, the highest this year. ETFs also ended their streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows on August 28.

However, last week overall ETFs still saw net inflows of about $924 million, so it’s still not time to turn bearish directly.

My view is very simple:
If we reclaim $80,000, I’ll keep looking long. If capital keeps flowing out and price breaks below a key support level, I’ll first reduce my position size a bit.

In the first week of September, it matters far more than just guessing up or down.

$BTC

$SOL ends 10 consecutive months of declines

$SOL was actually very strong in August.

In the whole of August, it rose by about 46% cumulatively. It finally ended 10 consecutive months of monthly closes in the red, and at one point surged above $110, reaching the highest level since the end of January.

More importantly, this move isn’t just retail investors playing the market.

In the past week, US SOL spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $153 million, the best week since they were launched. Total assets under management have now nearly reached $1.5 billion.

So right now, my feeling about SOL is completely different.

Before, it had been falling for almost a year with nobody daring to touch it. Now, the price is starting to reverse, and institutional capital is coming in at the same time.

If BTC can hold steady from here, I think SOL is very likely to become one of the most elastic coins among the large-cap altcoins in this cycle.

$BTC

Send a small red packet to everyone here
Wishing you happiness every day, smooth investing, and a consistently red account 🧧

👇

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In the group, everyone can chat freely and exchange ideas~ When I have time, I’ll come back to take a look, help answer some questions, and occasionally share some targets I personally think are relatively promising. Let’s discuss and reference together 🤝