夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

My target for $ZEN in this round is $200.

I just bought $ZEN at $6.9, and then it quickly moved to around $7.1.

But if it were only for that 2% or 3% gain, I would never buy it.

After researching Horizen again, what interests me most is not how much it has risen today, but that it checks several things I’m currently looking for at once: a fixed supply of 21 million, a privacy narrative, the Base ecosystem, and the Private DeFi it is now pushing forward.

More importantly, $ZEC has already brought privacy assets back into the market spotlight.

Once the leader breaks through $1,000 from a few hundred dollars, capital will definitely start looking for smaller-cap names in the same sector whose prices have not yet fully reflected the move.

ZEN is only around $7 now.

Going from $7 to $200 looks crazy, but the truly interesting opportunities in a bull market are never just another 20% gain.

Recently, I’ve been looking for
coins that could possibly go up 10x, 20x, or even 30x in the next wave.

$ZEN is one I just added to the list.

Right now the price is only around $7.1, and I bought in at $6.9.

Why dare to look for 30x?

Because I’m increasingly convinced that the 2027 bull market won’t only reward the leaders.

$ZEC has already broken above $1,000, and privacy has once again become one of the market’s strongest narratives. Once this main trend keeps spreading, capital will naturally start looking for smaller-cap, higher-beta assets in the second tier.

ZEN happens to still have a fixed supply of 21 million coins, has already migrated to Base, and has shifted its focus toward Private DeFi.

That’s the kind of upside I’m willing to bet on.

Of course, 30x is absolutely not a certainty, and there could even be a drawdown of more than 50% along the way.

But for ZEN around $7, I’m willing to take that risk.

Because if the market really ends up making the privacy sector the main theme of 2027, what I want is not a double — it’s 30x

$ZEN

$ZEN I just bought in at $6.9

It’s already around $7.1 now.
This buy kicked off even faster than I expected.

But I didn’t buy $ZEN because I saw a sudden pump and chased it. After recently re-studying Horizen, I found that the market may not have fully adapted to its new positioning yet.

ZEN has already migrated to Base. The fixed cap of 21 million coins remains unchanged, but Horizen has now shifted toward Private DeFi, focusing on truly combining privacy transactions, DeFi, and the EVM ecosystem. Staking on the chain has also restarted recently, and the DAO has allocated 50,000 ZEN as the first reward pool.

More importantly, capital is clearly starting to rotate into the privacy sector, and ZEN’s latest trading volume has expanded sharply.

So I’m willing to buy at $6.9, and I won’t rush to sell just because it has only risen a little to $7.1.

If this round of $ZEC fully ignites the privacy narrative, capital will eventually look for the second tier with smaller market caps and greater upside.

ZEN is one of the ones I’m willing to hold right now.

For the short term, I’m first looking at $8.

Missed $1000 with $ZEC ?
I’m starting to look for the next one, and it might be $ZEN

This round in ZEC has completely heated up the privacy sector, but what’s really interesting is that capital is starting to spread into the lower-market-cap privacy coins behind it.

Over the past two days, ZEN has clearly started to surge on strong volume. Its 7-day gain has already exceeded 50%, but the price is still only around $7, with a market cap of just over $100 million.

That’s why I started paying attention to it.

Horizen itself is also a long-standing privacy project. It has now upgraded to Horizen 2.0, shifting toward a privacy L3 on Base, continuing to focus on zero-knowledge proofs and privacy infrastructure.

ZEC has already proven that this narrative can be priced in wildly by the market.

If funds start looking for the “next ZEC,” a low-market-cap veteran like ZEN is actually the easiest target.

I can’t say it will definitely copy ZEC, but if it really does, at this price level the market may not just be talking about a double.

It could be dozens of times higher, even 100x.

A privacy coin with a market cap of just over $100 million
May have the chance to replicate a 100x move of $ZEC

Why did I start researching $ZEN instead after ZEC rose to $1,000?

Because in the second half of a bull market, capital likes to look for narratives that have already been validated, and then speculate on assets within them that have smaller market caps and greater flexibility.

ZEN currently has a market cap of only about $134 million, and its total supply cap is also only 21 million coins. Its price is still around $7.

More importantly, it is not just riding the privacy narrative.

Horizen has already migrated to the Base ecosystem, and Horizen 2.0 is positioned as a privacy-first platform. ZEN has also shifted from the old PoW coin to the native asset of the broader privacy application ecosystem.

So my view on $ZEN is actually very simple:

ZEC is responsible for establishing the privacy narrative, while ZEN is responsible for providing greater upside.

If privacy really becomes the main theme of the 2027 bull market, once ZEN, with a market cap of over $100 million, is chosen by capital, a 10x move may only be the first stage.

When things get truly crazy, I’ll look at whether it has a chance to replicate ZEC’s path.

This could be a bet with 100x-level upside.

$ZEC has already gone crazy
The next one I’m starting to watch is $ZEN

After ZEC broke above 1000, the valuation of the entire privacy sector should be looked at again.

Within this, I recently started paying attention to $ZEN .

ZEN and ZEC have historical ties, but Horizen has already completed its transformation. ZEN has migrated to Base and become an ERC-20 asset, and the project’s direction has also refocused on privacy, zero-knowledge proofs, and Private DeFi, while the total supply still remains at 21 million coins.

What’s even more interesting is that Grayscale itself has a Horizen Trust, and it just updated ZEN’s pricing benchmark in September.

So my logic on ZEN is very simple:

ZEC is responsible for pushing the privacy narrative out, while ZEN is responsible for providing greater upside room.

This is exactly the kind of play that bull-market capital loves. Once the leader has risen to the point that everyone is talking about it, funds will naturally look for assets in the same sector that have not yet been fully priced in.

If privacy really becomes one of the main themes of the 2027 bull market, I believe ZEN will not be absent.

I believe $ZEC
will at least rise to one-tenth of the BTC price

Why have I been heavily holding $ZEC throughout this round?

Because ZEC and BTC are actually more similar than many people think.

The same 21 million coin cap, the same PoW mining, the same halving and scarcity asset logic. The difference is that BTC has taken the path of digital gold to the extreme, while ZEC adds privacy to this monetary model.

Now BTC is close to $80,000, while ZEC is only around $1,000, and the price gap between the two is still nearly 80 times.

So I have always believed that this round of market revaluation of ZEC is not over yet.

If the market ultimately prices ZEC as a "privacy version of BTC," I believe it should at least rise to one-tenth of the BTC price.

If BTC reaches $100,000 in the future, then ZEC would be $10,000.

That is also why, after $ZEC rose to 1000, I still think there is a lot of room left.

$BTC has already proven the value of 21 million coins.
Now it is $ZEC 's turn to catch up.

BTC and ZEC share one of the simplest, and most easily understood by bull-market capital, common points:

Both have a maximum supply of 21 million coins, and both are PoW.

BTC solves decentralization and scarcity, while ZEC adds a layer of financial privacy on top of a similar monetary model.

In the past, ZEC's biggest problem was that the privacy narrative had never truly been priced in by mainstream capital.

But now the situation has changed.

$ZEC has broken through $1,000. ZCSH, listed in the United States, currently holds more than 440,000 ZEC, with assets under management exceeding $460 million. The channel for traditional capital to enter ZEC has already emerged.

So when I look at ZEC now, I don't think $1,000 is too high.

On the contrary, I think the huge valuation gap between it and BTC is starting to narrow.

My view is simple: ZEC will sooner or later catch up to one-tenth of BTC's price.

If BTC continues to hit new highs in 2027, then I still believe ZEC's $10,000 target is fully worth looking forward to.

After $ZEC went crazy, I started paying attention to $ZEN

Recently, ZEC has broken through $1,000 all the way, and instead I’ve started looking again at an old coin I hadn’t paid attention to for a long time: $ZEN .

Many people may not know this, but Horizen originally forked from Zcash, so it also has privacy genes, and ZEN’s maximum supply is also 21 million.

Now the two paths are completely different: ZEC is more like private digital cash, while ZEN has migrated to Base and is starting to move toward private finance and the application layer.

But from a hype logic perspective, that actually makes it very interesting.

Once ZEC opened up the valuation of the entire privacy sector, the market will very likely start looking for the next old coin that has history, a privacy narrative, and more room in both price and market cap.

So in this round, I will especially pay attention to $ZEN .

ZEC has already proven that a privacy narrative can be pumped by capital, and next it will depend on whether capital will start spreading into the same-origin ZEN.

After $ZEC surged 50x
I started paying attention to the next privacy coin $ZEN

After ZEC rose from tens of dollars all the way to 1000 dollars, privacy has become one of the strongest narratives in this market cycle.

Now I’m starting to pay attention to $ZEN .

Recently, ZEN has shown obvious unusual movement, at one point rising more than 18% in a single day, with trading volume expanding sharply. The logic behind it is simple: capital is starting to look for privacy assets that have not yet been fully speculated on.

ZEN also has a maximum supply of only 21 million, and Horizen has already completed its transformation. It is now directly built on the Base ecosystem, focusing on compliant privacy and zero-knowledge applications.

ZEC has already fully heated up the privacy sector, and next capital will definitely look for undervalued laggards.

If I had to choose an asset “after ZEC,” I would currently focus on ZEN.

ZEC is about speculating on the leader; ZEN is about speculating on the upside potential.

$BNB target 1000

After the non-farm payrolls were released, gold dropped sharply
This reaction was not surprising at all

August added 162,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The data was clearly stronger than market expectations, U.S. Treasury yields rose immediately, and the dollar also found support. For gold, this is a standard bearish factor.$PAXG $XAU

But I won’t overturn gold’s long-term logic just because of one employment report.

I already bought once around 4300 before, and this rebound has also proven that level was a good entry.

My thinking is still the same now:

If it rises too fast, I won’t chase. If macro bearish news pushes the price back down, I’ll start looking for buying opportunities.

$XAUT Gold now needs to wait for the market to digest the new interest rate expectations.

If it continues to wash lower to 4400 or even below, I’ll still stay on the buy side.

For gold’s broader trend, I currently have no reason at all to turn bearish.

$SPCXB near 150, I’m actually not interested in chasing the short side.

I know it’s expensive.

And the real thing to be careful about in September is already in front of us: on September 9, there are still about 319 million shares facing lockup expiration. That, in my view, is a risk worth watching more closely than short-term price swings.

But the story of SpaceX itself is far from over.

Starlink, the launch business, satellite internet, and even the market’s continued valuation of it as a technology platform all mean this kind of stock can stay expensive for a long time when sentiment is strong.

So around 150, my approach is not to short immediately, but to see how it moves first.

If you want to buy, you can participate with a small position.

If you really want to short, I’ll say the same thing:

Don’t rush at 150.

Wait until around 166, and the risk-reward will be much better.

$SNDKB recently closed around $1,740, and on Friday it surged nearly 12% again.

To be honest, I wouldn’t tell everyone to chase it blindly at this price.

But after going back through the latest NAND materials and SanDisk’s financial report, I also don’t want to turn bearish just because it has already risen “too much.”

What stood out to me most were two numbers: last quarter’s revenue was $8.96 billion, up 372% year over year; gross margin has already reached 84.6%. More importantly, the company’s revenue guidance for the next quarter is directly set at $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion.

At the same time, NAND supply in the industry remains tight, and AI data centers are continuously consuming high-end storage capacity. Some peers even believe the shortage could last until after 2027.

So my biggest takeaway after reading everything is this:

$SNDKB is no longer trading on just the “AI theme”; it is trading on AI truly beginning to reshape the profit structure of the storage industry.

At $1,740, the valuation is expensive, and I wouldn’t go in heavily chasing it.

But if you want to hold the AI storage main trend, this is a position where you can buy a small amount. If there is a clear pullback next time, I would actually add more.

$SNDKB , I remain bullish.

$ZEC is now around $1023, and has nearly doubled over the past 30 days.

But after I re-read the ETF, futures, and miner data today, my biggest feeling is actually this: the market may be slowly changing the way it prices ZEC.

Since ZCSH went live, it has seen at least $34.4 million in net inflows. Network hashrate has at one point risen from around 25 GSol/s at the end of August to above 30 GSol/s, and at the same time ZEC futures open interest has already reached about $2.3 billion.

These three pools of money represent completely different people.

Traditional capital comes in through ETFs, miners add hashrate, and crypto-native funds are fighting fiercely in the derivatives market.

When different types of capital all start building positions around a PoW asset with a hard cap of only 21 million coins, I become less and less willing to treat it as just a "privacy coin hype play."

At $1023, I would still buy, and I will continue to hold.

A violent shakeout after a short-term double is of course possible, but what I am really betting on is the next phase:

When will the market start repricing ZEC as a "privacy version of BTC"?

If that happens, $1000 may only be the starting point.

$ZEC 10000 The view remains unchanged.

$BTC was pushed back to around $80,000 by nonfarm payrolls, but $ZEC is still holding above $1,000.

This is the most direct reason I’m still holding $ZEC right now.

Over the past month, ZEC has already risen 94%, at one point reaching $1,023. ZCSH has seen net inflows of at least $34.4 million since listing, and on September 2 alone it brought in another $12.6 million. More interestingly, the network hashrate also surged from 25 GSol/s at the end of August to above 30 at one point.

Price is up, ETF money is coming in, and miners are joining in too.

A short-term move like this will definitely see some shakeouts, but as long as it can keep holding around $1,000, I won’t get off just because it has risen.

It’s still buyable around $1,000, and add on pullbacks in batches.

What I’m looking at in this round was never $1,200 or $1,500.

$ZEC ’s ultimate target is still $10,000.

After the non-farm payrolls came out yesterday, $BTC was smashed back below $80,000, but I still won’t change the next target: 84,000.

This macro data was indeed bearish. August added 162,000 jobs, far above expectations, and the market once again raised bets on Fed rate hikes. At the same time, on Friday, U.S. $BTC spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $175 million, though this was clearly cooler compared with the previous day’s $731 million.

So the situation now is very simple:

Macro is दबressing the price, while ETF money is still coming in.

I’m willing to keep buying around $80,000. After regaining 81,000, I’ll keep watching 82,000, and then 84,000 above that.

There’s no need to change direction for now.

In this round, I’m no longer too interested in spending a lot of time hunting for altcoins that can only go up another 20% or 30%.

What I’m looking for are 5x and 10x moves.

So I’m still holding $ACH .

It’s still only around the $0.005 level right now. Alchemy Pay also doesn’t have any major super-bullish catalyst worth forcing the case for lately, but its businesses in payments, fiat on/off-ramping, stablecoins, and RWA are still moving forward. Earlier, it had already integrated RWA assets like xStocks into its fiat payment network.

The main reason I bought it is really the odds.

An old altcoin that the market has known for many years, still has liquidity, and is sitting at a low price level can easily become a target for capital looking for catch-up gains once a full-blown alt season truly arrives in 2027.

I’m willing to buy around 0.005.

For $ACH , I’m looking at more than 10x upside.