Hi everyone, I’m One Cup of Iced Tea. Here you’ll find daily crypto and macro market recaps.
Every day, you’ll see:
• BTC & ETH recaps — key levels and what to watch next • Altcoin rotation — what’s behind the top gainers • MEME moves — only tracking coins with real volume • Major news — covered as it happens • U.S. market close — SPY/QQQ, semiconductors, and what it means for crypto • Commodities — gold, silver, and crude oil • Earnings season previews and recaps
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On the eve of CPI, $BTC ’s 84K level got pushed back again, while $ETH quietly strengthened? 🤔
Here’s the answer: Yesterday I said 82K should hold and 84K was a wall. Now $BTC is at 82.8K, after being rejected from a 24-hour high of 84.3K; the low was 82.4K. The answer is pretty much what we expected.
Looking at the chart: the green line at 82,400 is support, and the red line at 84,400 is resistance. September CPI comes out Wednesday at 20:30 (Hong Kong time). I think we’ll most likely trade between 82K and 84K until the numbers are released. If 82K breaks, then watch 80.4K.
$ETH is at 2,531, basically unchanged on the day. 2,500 has held, while the red line at 2,580 is still resistance. The bulls tried to break through 2,580 on Monday but couldn’t hold it. To be honest, I’m not that confident about a breakout.
ETH/BTC rose to 0.0306, up 1.2% on the day. It’s rare to see ETH hold up better than BTC. Spot ETFs saw total outflows of $1.2 billion last week, and ETH has had net outflows for nine straight days. I’m treating this rebound as no more than an oversold bounce.
My take: I wouldn’t chase before CPI; let’s see what happens after the data comes out. Do you think ETH can keep this momentum going until CPI?
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
The legendary run from $0.048 to $0.123 in a week, then a 20% giveback in 24 hours—$STRK left everyone who chased the rally stranded at the top tonight. 😬
Current price: $0.0916, down 21.6% in 24h. The story is pretty simple: last week, the StarkWare founder said quantum computing threatens existing cryptography, and that Starknet should break away from Ethereum and build its own L1. The hype was off the charts, and the token surged from $0.048 to $0.123, up 150%.
But keep in mind—so far, this is just an idea: no formal proposal, no governance vote, not even a timeline. Once the story had been told, holders started taking profits.
At 21:00 tonight, one hourly candle plunged straight from $0.1038 to a low of $0.0931 (closing down 7.7%). Trading volume was 5.6M USDT, more than four times that of the previous few hours—the sell-off came with volume.
Support: $0.090 (if it breaks, watch $0.085). Resistance: $0.100 / $0.1079. The MA7 has already crossed below the MA25, and all the short-term moving averages are now overhead.
The playbook: if it can’t rebound above $0.10, it’ll keep looking for support lower down; if $0.090 gives way, watch the $0.085 area.
I’m leaning bearish in the short term: until the story becomes reality, this is a textbook case of selling the news. There’s only one condition that would prove me wrong—if it closes back above $0.104 on strong volume, I’ll shut up immediately.
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
Over the weekend, ChangXin talked about a new 4F² DRAM architecture at an event in Shanghai, saying it plans to release DDR5 server memory by the end of the year. It was just a presentation at a conference, and the product hasn’t even shipped yet, but Korean stocks got hit hard today: $SKHYNIX closed down 4.5% at 1.605 million won, Samsung fell 4.4%, and the KOSPI dropped 3.65% in a single day.
U.S. stocks took a hit in premarket trading too. $MU closed at 1,029 on Friday and was around 1,006 premarket, down a little over 2%; $SNDK was also down about 2%. On top of that, the union at Micron’s Taiwan operations just voted to authorize a strike (99% in favor). No date has been set yet, but it’s another weight hanging over the stock.
Looking at the chart, the 4-hour candles have printed several consecutive red bars, edging down toward 1,000. That’s also where buyers stepped in when it dipped on October 7. Here’s my game plan: Resistance: 1,040 / 1,100 Support: 1,000 / 975
If it breaks below 1,000 on heavy volume after the open, there doesn’t seem to be much meaningful support below, and 975 could come quickly. If buyers step in above 1,000 and it gets back to 1,020 within half an hour, then today’s move could just be a shakeout with a long lower wick.
Honestly, I think this move is being driven a bit too much by sentiment. Memory prices are still rising, and it’ll be a while before ChangXin’s products are actually mass-produced. I’m bullish, as long as 1,000 holds. If the 4-hour candle closes below 990, I’ll admit I’m wrong and get out—I won’t keep holding. CPI is also due Wednesday, so don’t go all-in.
Are you bullish or bearish? See you in the comments 👇
⚠️ Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice. #美股 #存储芯片 #Micron
$ICP Up 10%+ in a day, and even crypto veterans are rubbing their eyes—DFINITY dropped a bombshell today. Did you catch it?
Here’s what happened: DFINITY announced its Cloud Engines revenue-sharing plan today. From now on, 20% of revenue from its enterprise cloud business will go directly toward buying and burning ICP. This is part of the Mission 70 deflation plan, which aims to cut ICP’s annual inflation rate from 9.72% to 2.92%. Governance proposals also include plans to cut first-generation node rewards by 40% and lower the minimum number of nodes per subnet (subject to governance votes). And this isn’t just pie in the sky: Pakistan’s national-level Cloud Engine and the UNDP pilot are already up and running.
Data (Binance, current price $3.43, 24h +10.6%, intraday high of $3.55): 📈 Resistance: $3.55 (today’s high) / $3.59, with $3.90 next 📉 Support: $3.43 (retest level) / $3.30 / $3.17
How I see it playing out: If it holds above $3.59 on strong volume, the bulls open up room to target $3.90. But if it gets rejected and falls below $3.30, most of this rally will probably get wiped out, with $3.17 next.
My stance: Sitting on the sidelines in the short term—no chasing. Jumping in after a 10%+ daily move makes it way too easy to catch a falling knife, and the RSI is already overbought. But I’m bullish on the long-term deflationary thesis behind Cloud Engines. What would change my mind: A high-volume breakout above $3.59 that holds would mean I was too cautious, and I’d have to admit I was wrong and turn bullish in the short term.
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
$SOL Down 10% in a week, and even ETF money is starting to pull out. Is this the bottom, or just the beginning? 🤔
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot SOL ETFs saw $24.8 million in net outflows last week—their biggest weekly outflow since launching last October, ending a 14-week streak of inflows. I took a look, and the outflows aren't that dramatic, really. It’s mainly BSOL gradually pulling back; there hasn’t been a single day of especially heavy selling.
The current price is around 111.6, up 2% over 24 hours. Looking at the chart: the green line at 105.7 marks this cycle’s low, and the red line at 122 is last week’s breakdown level. I’ll only seriously turn bullish if it gets back above that. Hong Kong is also set to launch its second spot SOL ETF tomorrow, but honestly, I think the market has already heard this news.
I’m leaning toward a choppy move with a bearish bias: if it can’t reclaim 122, I’ll treat this as a bounce. If it breaks below 105.7, I’ll admit defeat and won’t buy the dip—I’ll wait for the next support zone. Are you bullish or bearish? See you in the comments 👇
⚠️Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice. #SOL #Solana #Altcoins
The Houthis just bombed Riyadh airport, yet oil prices are down today. Does that make sense? 🤔
Brent crude | The Middle East is burning, oil prices are falling
Honestly, I was a little confused when I checked the markets this morning. The Houthis attacked Riyadh airport over the weekend, and two more oil tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz. You’d think prices would be up. But then Trump said, “Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure,” and Russia said it would start supplying diesel abroad, so oil opened sharply lower.
$BZ is now around 101.7, down 0.8% over 24 hours, after dipping to an intraday low of 100.3; $CL is at 90.3, down nearly 1%.
Looking at the chart, 100 is a key level on the 4H chart, with the MA99 providing support below. Since breaking above it on high volume last Thursday, price has tested it several times without falling below. Around 104.6 is where it got knocked back after last week’s rally.
My thinking is simple: Ukraine says it’s still waiting for details on this “energy ceasefire,” and Russia hasn’t said a word so far. I’m not convinced it’s enough to push oil prices down. Meanwhile, attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East have become more frequent this month. Even Goldman Sachs raised its year-end Brent forecast from 85 to 90, saying there’s more than $20 of risk premium priced in.
What to watch next: Whether Moscow confirms the ceasefire US CPI on Wednesday; PPI and retail sales on Thursday Any new tanker news from the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz
My scenario: If 100 holds, I’m looking for a move back to 104.6 for another test. If the 4H candle closes below 99, then the ceasefire trade has won. I’ll admit I was wrong, and look for 97–98 next.
I’m bullish. They think Brent can be pushed below 100 on the back of an unconfirmed ceasefire? I don’t buy it. Which side are you on? 🛢️
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
The market’s up, but it’s down. Who sat on $BOME ’s head this morning?
$BTC was still up +1.15% this morning, holding above 84,000, while $BOME plunged on its own, down 9.2% over 24 hours. It’s now hovering around 0.001 (0.0009999), breaking below the key 0.001 level.
Here’s the detail: the 4-hour candle from 04:00 to 08:00 this morning (Hong Kong time) saw 870,000 USDT in trading volume—twice the average of the past few days. Looking at 15-minute intervals, volume during the hour of heaviest selling was 5.7 times the 48-hour average. The 4-hour candle fell 8.4%, with a low of 0.0009774. This was a classic high-volume breakdown, not a slow bleed.
For context: it had just touched its previous high of 0.001171 on October 11, only to be knocked right back down in less than two days. There are now two resistance levels above: 0.001091 (the breakdown level from today; watch whether it can reclaim this on a rebound), followed by the previous high at 0.001171. Support below: 0.000977 (this morning’s low), then 0.000932 (the 10-day low) if that gives way.
The scenario is simple: I’m leaning bearish. If it rebounds to around 0.001091 and can’t get above it, that’s a textbook breakdown retest, with the next downside target at 0.000977, then 0.000932 if that breaks. But if a 4-hour candle can close back above 0.00110, then this post is wrong—it would mean today’s move was a false breakdown shakeout, and the bulls aren’t dead yet.
I’m leaning bearish, and I’ve made my invalidation level clear: if a 4-hour candle closes back above 0.00110, I’m wrong.
⚠️Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
$NEAR surged 13.7% in a day—is NEAR officially the hottest thing in crypto today?
First, why the sudden rally? Two things came together:
1. On September 29, Bitwise’s NEAR spot ETF (NRR) officially launched on NYSE Arca—the first NEAR spot product in the US, and it can also include staking rewards in the fund’s net asset value. It pulled in $35.5 million on its first day, with institutions putting real money in.
2. On October 9, NEAR announced that accounts now support post-quantum ML-DSA signatures. Existing addresses can switch keys without moving their assets, and NEP-655 is already on testnet, with mainnet expected within a few weeks. It came right amid fears that “AI could crack wallet cryptography,” so NEAR basically had its homework done early—and the narrative caught fire.
Market snapshot: Current price $5.97, up 13.7% over 24h, with the intraday high just touching the $6.00 mark.
How to read the setup: - Resistance: $6.00 is both the round-number level price just hit today and a breakout point. If it holds above, the next target is around $6.48 (the upper end of the recent target zone). - Support: $5.20 (where today’s surge began). If that breaks, watch $4.70 (the low from the October 10 move).
My take: Short-term bullish; ride the trend. Be clear about the invalidation point: if the daily candle closes below $5.20, admit you’re wrong and exit—don’t stubbornly hold on. If the broader market pulls back, assets that have just spiked like this are usually first in line to get hit.
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
$ENA Someone took $17.7 million in profit in one hour—the biggest move of its kind this year 😳 Is someone getting out? I actually think it’s a good thing.
First, the chart: It dipped to 0.194 on Oct. 9, then rebounded to around 0.244 over three days. It’s up about 10% in 24 hours and 25% in three days.
A lot of people are treating that Santiment data as a sell signal. But honestly, it’s better for tokens to change hands around here than at the 0.29 peak.
Take a look 👇 Price is right up against the purple MA99 now, with 0.244 as the first hurdle. The red line at 0.263 marks the Oct. 5 spike. I’ll only look for 0.29 if price gets above it. The green line at 0.23 is the platform where this rally started; 0.22 is the last line of defense.
My game plan: If it retests 0.23 and holds, that’s an entry point. I’m long, with 0.263 as the first target. If a 4H candle closes below 0.22, I’ll admit I was wrong. Don’t cling to a losing trade.
Don’t chase today’s green candle—wait for a pullback 🍵 Do you think that $17.7 million was smart money getting out, or did it just pass to a stronger set of hands? I’m betting on the latter.
⚠️Just my personal ramblings, not investment advice. #ENA #Altcoins
Dumped on 8x volume—does this MEME still have a future?
The biggest move in MEME yesterday was actually $MUBARAK : it pumped, then dumped, burying all the longs in an hour.
Current price: 0.0708, down 5.8% over 24 hours. At 4 p.m. yesterday (October 11), it surged 4.6% on heavy volume and touched 0.0795. But the very next hour, volume spiked to 8.2x and it dumped 7.9%, with a wick plunging to 0.0692. The story behind a dump on such huge volume is pretty clear: someone used the pump to sell.
Now it’s sitting right at the key 0.07 level. Bulls and bears are watching this move:
Resistance: 0.0780–0.0795 (yesterday’s sell zone; don’t expect a return without a volume spike) Support: 0.0700 (the round-number level); if it breaks, watch the 7-day low at 0.0659
The playbook: 1. If it holds 0.07, I’d still look to short a bounce into the 0.074–0.0785 area. 2. If it breaks below 0.07, don’t catch the falling knife—wait for 0.0659 and see if buyers step in.
My stance: leaning bearish, staying on the sidelines. What would prove me wrong: a high-volume reclaim of 0.0785. If that happens, I’ll admit I was wrong, shut up, and turn bullish.
⚠️ Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
Just got knocked into a hole, and $ZEC turned right around and bounced back—is it the toughest one out there?
The market took a heavy hit last weekend: $BTC briefly fell below 81000, with over a billion dollars in liquidations, then $ZEC rebounded against the trend. Binance spot price: $1,283, up 5.17% in 24h; high $1,299.7 / low $1,219.1; trading volume: $134 million. Volume has really picked up.
Why the rally? The narrative is doing its job: 1) An engineer from Zakura, the Zcash node software team, posted that post-quantum signature opcodes will go live next January, first giving the transparent transaction pool (where around 70% of $ZEC currently sits) “quantum armor.” The backdrop: quantum threats are getting more attention, and an Ethereum researcher just called for “bunker mode.” 2) By market cap, $ZEC has pushed ADA and LINK aside and stormed back into the top 10. It’s up 441% over the past year.
Price levels to watch: $1,300 is the first hurdle above (the 24h high plus a round number). A break above that opens the way to $1,500, then the September high around $1,700. Below, $1,195–$1,200 is the line in the sand between bulls and bears; if that breaks, watch $1,115, then $1,040–$1,050.
The playbook: If it holds above $1,200, momentum will likely continue, with $1,300 and $1,500 in sight. If it breaks below $1,195–$1,200 on strong volume and can’t reclaim the level, I’ll admit I’m wrong—even the strongest narrative has to respect a breakdown.
I’m leaning bullish in the short term: privacy + post-quantum security—that’s exactly the kind of narrative the market is buying right now. My invalidation: a decisive break below $1,195 with no recovery, and I’ll switch straight to a bearish view.
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
BTC finally broke through 83,000, touched 84,000, then came back|What I was watching during the midnight session 🔥
Honestly, in my last post I wrote, “83,500 keeps getting stuck.” Here’s the verdict this time: it broke through, so I was half wrong. It reached a high of 84,000 and is now around $BTC 8.38 万, up about 1% in 24 hours.
Looking at the chart, the red dashed line at 84,000 is tonight’s high, while the green dashed line at 82,000 is the floor that’s held over the past few days. I’d rather wait and see if it pulls back to around 83,000. Not chasing.
Around $ETH 2530, up 0.8% in 24 hours, and holding above 2,500. But ETH/BTC is still at 0.0302, so ETH isn’t outperforming BTC, and the shadow of consecutive ETF outflows is still hanging over the market.
· Entry zone: BTC 83,000–82,000; ETH 2,500–2,470 · Resistance: BTC 84,000; ETH 2,550 · Invalidation: BTC 80,400; ETH 2,400
Do you think 84,000 can hold tonight in one go? Or will it pull back to 83,000 first? Pick one in the comments.
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice. #以太坊突破2500USDT #BTC
No MEME volume surge, so tonight I’m keeping an eye on $NEAR 🔥 24h trading volume: $95 million. It briefly surged 11% on Saturday.
Emmm, I think this rally is being supported by the news: NEAR says its accounts now support post-quantum signatures with ML-DSA, and Bitwise’s NEAR ETF saw $35.5 million in net inflows on its first day. But there’s still no date set for the mainnet launch, so don’t take it all as good news.
Looking at the chart: the green dashed line at 5.0 is support, and the red dashed line at 5.45 is resistance. · Current price: around 5.35 (22:00 Hong Kong time) · Entry zone: on a pullback to around 5.0; don’t chase · Cut your losses: get out if it drops below 4.8. This one plunged from 5.6 to 4.3 a couple of days ago—it can turn on a dime.
Manage your position size; don’t go all in. Are you waiting for a pullback to 5.0 or chasing after a breakout above 5.45? Let me know in the comments👇 ⚠️Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice. #NEAR #Ethereum breaks above 2500 USDT
🚨 $MUBARAK 2-hour trading volume surged 5x! Price pumped then dumped within an hour—was someone wash trading?
Honestly, I was stunned when I first checked the charts: over the past 2 hours, average hourly trading volume was around $3.5 million—more than 5x the 7-day hourly average. 24-hour trading volume was $9.1 million.
Current price: 0.0725, down 4.5% in 24 hours. In the previous hour, it got slammed straight from 0.0783 to 0.072, leaving a pretty nasty wick.
On the chart: the red dashed line at 0.0783 marks the level it just fell from, and the green dashed line at 0.069 marks the low it retested two days ago.
· Re-entry zone: 0.069–0.070, but wait for it to stabilize · Resistance: 0.0783, 0.0795 · Invalidation: exit if it breaks below 0.069
A volume spike doesn’t mean the price has to go up. This kind of coin can make three round trips in a day—keep your position size under control and don’t go all in.
Do you think this is a shakeout or distribution? Pick one in the comments 👇
⚠️ Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice. #MEME #MUBARAK
ETH weekly fund flows: ETFs have seen net outflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $697 million, while ETH/BTC has slid from 0.032 to 0.0302 😮
Quick take: BTC held above 82,000, but once again failed to break 83,500 today. Honestly, I’ve lost count of how many times it’s tested that level.
$BTC is currently hovering around $83,000, up just 0.3% in 24 hours. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs saw $680 million in net outflows last week, ending a three-week streak of inflows. But they brought in $21 million on Friday, a slight rebound. The red line in the chart is 83,500, and the green line is 82,000—price is stuck between them. The European session is about to open, and I’d rather wait for a volume-backed move above 83,500 before jumping in.
$ETH is around 2,500, up 0.2%. In the chart, 2,520 is the red line and 2,470 is the green line. ETH ETFs saw $540 million in outflows last week, their worst week since January. Surprisingly, the price didn’t crash, which caught me off guard. But weak is weak—ETH/BTC is still sliding, and BTC has been holding up better over the past few days.
Key levels: · Entry zone: BTC around 82,000 / ETH around 2,470 · Resistance: BTC 83,500 / ETH 2,520 · I’m wrong if: BTC falls below 80,400 / ETH falls below 2,400
What do you think will move first in the European session: BTC breaking above 83,500, or ETH falling back to 2,470? Leave your answer in the comments.
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice. #以太坊ETF连续9日净流出 #BTC
Winklevoss filed for a spot ETF for Zcash (ticker: WINK), and Grayscale’s ZEC ETF has also topped $1 billion in assets. $ZEC , though, has steadily slid from over 1,400 to around 1,220. Honestly, I’m having a hard time making sense of it 😅
My take: The news is bullish, and the price is digesting it. If it retests support and holds, that could be an opportunity to get in. Don’t rush to chase it.
On the chart: The green line at 1185 is support from the wick a few days ago, and the red line at 1300 is the first resistance it needs to break on a rebound.
· Entry zone: Around 1200–1220 · Resistance: 1300, then 1366 · Cut your losses: Exit if it closes below 1185
Also, Grayscale has seen outflows since October, so don’t focus only on the good news. Volatility is high—whatever you do, don’t go all in.
Do you think it’ll retest 1200 first or head straight for 1300? Let’s discuss in the comments.
⚠️Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice. #ZEC #Zcash $ZEC
$BTC has been moving sideways for almost a day, with a range of less than 600 points. At midday, it’s still stuck below 83,500 😮💨
Honestly, I’m getting a little bored. In my last post, I said 82,000 needed to hold—and it did. The low was just above 82,200, so it didn’t break. But we still haven’t reclaimed 83,500. This level is really sticky.
Looking at the chart, the red dashed line at 83,500 is resistance, and the green dashed line at 82,000 is support. The current price is around 82,800. Personally, I’d rather wait for a retest of 82,000 before deciding—no chasing.
$ETH is around 2,500, up 0.3% over 24 hours, pretty much in line with BTC. On the chart, 2,520 is capping it, while 2,470 is holding it up. ETH/BTC is slightly up at 0.0302, so ETH is a tiny bit stronger, but ETFs have seen net outflows for 9 consecutive days, so don’t get too excited.
🚨 QNT has been swinging between 237 and 255 all day, with over $20 million in 24-hour trading volume. Would you dare to buy into this shakeout?
$QNT It’s around 237 now, down 3.7% over the past 24 hours. Honestly, I think the drop has been a bit sharp at this level, but price has bounced back after dipping near 220 on the daily chart before. I’d rather wait for a retest than chase it.
On the chart: the green dashed line at 220 is support, and the red dashed line at 255 is resistance.
· Entry zone: scale in between 225–235 · Resistance: 255; if it breaks through, then watch 270 · Cut your losses: exit if it drops below 220
Volatility is high, so don’t go all in—manage your position size.
Are you waiting to buy below 225, or would you start with a small position at 237? Let’s chat in the comments.
⚠️Just my personal rambling, not investment advice. #QNT #Altcoins
ETH ETFs have seen 9 straight days of net outflows, yet the price is stuck at $2,500? Honestly, I’m a little baffled 🤔
The weekend morning session is eerily quiet. $BTC Around $83,000, it’s up just 0.5% in 24 hours. It’s tested the 83,500 ceiling for the fifth time and still hasn’t broken through. According to SoSoValue, BTC ETFs saw $21 million in inflows on Friday, with IBIT providing support, but the total outflow for the week was still $680 million.
Looking at the chart, the red dashed line at 83,500 is resistance, and the green dashed line at 82,000 is the support I’m watching. Last night’s pullback didn’t break below 81,900, so the level I mentioned held.
$ETH At 2,505, it broke above 2,500, #以太坊突破2500USDT . But ETH ETFs have had outflows for 9 straight days: another $56 million outflow on Friday, $540 million for the week—the worst since January. Spot demand is holding it up while money is flowing out. I’m not comfortable betting big on this contradiction. ETH/BTC is at 0.0302. ETH is slightly stronger today, but that’s driven by sentiment, not capital flows.
Price levels: · BTC entry zone: around 82,000; resistance: 83,500; invalidation: 80,400 · ETH entry zone: around 2,470; resistance: 2,520–2,550; invalidation: 2,400
Weekend volume is low. Don’t chase—wait for a breakout.
Which do you think will happen first this weekend: BTC breaking above 83,500, or ETH falling back to 2,470?
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.