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$RLC 24 hours still rose nearly 30%, yet within 1 hour it saw a trading-volume surge and fell by more than 8%

As of 04:42 Beijing time on October 09, Binance spot RLC/USDT is trading at 0.8614, up 28.07% over the past 24 hours. However, in the most recent complete hour (03:00–04:00), it fell -8.36%, with trading volume around 7.1 times the median for the previous 24 complete hours.

This is exactly the “time-window illusion” of the “24-hour gainers list”: the leaderboard still shows strength, but that doesn’t mean upward momentum is still intact. A volume-amplified selloff alone can’t prove the trend has already reversed, but it does indicate that disagreement at higher levels is increasing and turnover is clearly rising.

Next, I’ll look at two things: whether the subsequent complete hour can reclaim this bearish candle; and whether trading volume during the rebound can be sustained. If the move ends up being a low-volume dead-cat bounce, the risk of chasing is still high. If price reclaims the area before the sharp selloff and does so with increased volume, then it would indicate that support has strengthened.

I didn’t find any verified daily official announcement sufficient to explain this round of volatility, so here I only discuss the volume-and-price structure and won’t force old “roadmaps” into the explanation as the reason for the rise.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, 1-hour candlestick chart.#RLC #Market anomalies

$OGN 24 hours doubling—why can’t it be taken as a “major market reversal” signal?

As of 02:16 Beijing time on October 09, Binance spot OGN/USDT is trading at 0.04707, up 111.65% over the past 24 hours; over the same period, $BTC is down 2.99%. A sharp surge in one coin occurring alongside weakness in the overall market means you can’t treat the gainers list as evidence of a broad-based recovery.

More worth focusing on is trading volume: in the full hour from 01:00 to 02:00, OGN’s turnover is about 17.5 times the median turnover across the previous 24 complete hours. Trading activity has clearly increased, but higher volume alone can’t distinguish between chasing buys and high-level rotation, nor can it prove the presence of any new positive catalysts.

My observation framework: if it continues to strengthen, we should see whether subsequent full hours can maintain volume-price alignment, and whether there’s still support after any pullback. If it quickly gives back after a volume expansion, then the call that the uptrend will continue needs to be downgraded. To judge the broader market, we need to see whether more leading coins are repairing in tandem.

Don’t equate a single coin doubling with a definite opportunity—first determine whether this is a localized move or a generally warming trend.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, 1-hour candlesticks. #MarketMomentum

Bitcoin Approaches 80,000: Is This a Bargain-Hunting Opportunity or the Start of the Next Round of Declines?

As of 01:35 Beijing time on October 9, Binance spot BTC/USDT is at 80,832.48, down 2.89% over the past 24 hours. ETH is at 2,422.19 (-5.40%), and SOL is at 106.85 (-8.18%). The latter two have fallen significantly more, indicating that risk appetite has weakened.

On the news front: Reuters reported on October 8 that rising oil prices, bond selling, and inflation concerns together are weighing on risk assets. My view: macro pressures can explain some of the selling, but they cannot be taken as proof that there is undisclosed bad news. Nor can the market be declared in collapse based on just one day’s decline.

In the short term, watch BTC around the psychological 80,000 integer level and the 80.4k area near the 24-hour low for signs of support. These are only observation zones, not guaranteed support. If price breaks down and volume increases, the correction may continue. If it regains and holds above 82,000, then watch whether the rebound trading volume can be sustained.

What matters more right now is confirmation between price and volume. A single rebound is not enough to prove a trend reversal.

Source: Binance spot 24-hour market data, Reuters; personal market observation.#BTC #ETH #Crypto Market

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BIGTIME: Impact on target price, valuation range adjusted during the week

In the analysis of BIGTIME on December 4, it was proposed that the price of BIGTIME is accelerating its rise along the yellow trend line, and there is a risk of price falling in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of the yellow line. Yesterday, BIGTIME fell as low as 0.5 after 10pm, just reaching the support position of the yellow line. Then it started to rise again and reached a maximum of 0.95 this morning, setting a new high again.
Judging from the current market, BIGTIME was blocked and fell back after rising to 0.95. The blue circle is the range where the price may step back. If the market is strong enough, it may just make a shock adjustment near the current price. After the step back or adjustment is completed, it will continue to rise. Impact target price of $1.
In terms of data, the 1-hour OBV began to rise and cover again after a sharp decline, and bulls continued to enter the market. The 1-hour MACD continuously formed golden crosses, further boosting the market's rise.

The valuation range was adjusted to 0.65-0.95 during the week

operate
If you still have long orders on hand, you can take profits around $1 and do not consider intervening in short orders for the time being.

DOGE: 10% floating profit for long orders, continue to hold

In the analysis of DOGE on November 29, it was proposed that DOGE rebounded strongly after the previous decline and may develop into a reversal trend. DOGE has risen to a maximum of 0.09 today, breaking through the high of November 17, and a reversal trend has been confirmed. The red circle is the position where we open a long position, the cost is below 0.08, and the current floating profit has exceeded 10%.
From the market perspective, DOGE is currently rising along the yellow trend line, so you need to pay attention to the support effect of the yellow trend line after the next price pullback. If it falls below, you need to be alert to the possibility of the end of the rising market.
In terms of data, after the price rose to 0.09, the 1-hour OBV declined, indicating that long funds began to withdraw, but the overall trend is still continuing to rise. The 1-hour MACD is adjusting towards the 0 axis after a dead cross. The market is currently very strong. This short-term adjustment may end soon and continue to attack the target price of 0.095.

The valuation range was adjusted to 0.082-0.095 during the week

operate
You can continue to hold long orders and set a stop loss protection at the cost price.

BIGTIME: Raise target price, be wary of short-term price fall

In BIGTIME's analysis on November 26, it was mentioned that BIGTIME's short-term decline was just a short-term trend, and it recovered the decline in a short period of time. After the adjustment is completed, the upward trend will further continue. During the adjustment process, BIGTIME price continued to step back on the blue upward trend line to gain support, and then started a huge upward trend. Judging from the current market situation, BIGTIME is above the blue line and has started to accelerate its rise along the yellow trend line. The angle of the yellow trend line is extremely steep, and the market may have begun to enter the top mode. At present, we need to pay attention to the support of the yellow trend line. If it falls below, the market will begin to enter a correction.
In terms of data, the 1-hour OBV data began to show signs of decline, indicating that funds have begun to withdraw. The 1-hour MACD energy column begins to fade, which also means that this accelerated rise may have come to an end, and there may be a downward adjustment in the short term, and it will continue to rise after the adjustment.

Medium-term target price adjusted to $1

In the short term, short positions can be opened near 0.66, with a take profit price of 0.55.

MEME: Pay attention to the breakthrough of two key positions

In the analysis of MEME on November 27, it was mentioned that the price of MEME has entered the undervalued range, and small positions can be opened in batches for spot positions. MEME itself has no investment value at all. To put it bluntly, it is listed on Binance and has a certain degree of discussion. MEME's new coin mining in the Binance Launch Pool has ended recently. The chips distributed have also been sold by retail investors. Now it just depends on when it is ready to cause trouble. Combined with the recent on-chain data monitoring that the project party transferred more than 1 billion MEME coins, it is estimated that it is time. After all, the project side also needs to ship goods, and at least it must first stir up the excitement before it has enough liquidity to undertake its sell-off.
From a technical perspective, MEME pulled a wave shortly after being listed on Binance, and then began to fall from a high. The rebound after the decline began to be blocked only at the half point, and the trend was really too weak. A triangle pattern can be drawn based on the trend of MEME after falling from its high level. The current price has almost reached the end of the triangle. The main observation points are the strength of the breakthrough of the upper edge of the triangle pattern, and whether the Fibonacci position of 0.618 ($0.345) above it can stand firm. If the price breaks through $0.345 and stands firm, the target is still optimistic that it will continue to break the previous high.

operate
You can continue to open a spot position at the current price.

ETH: The monthly golden cross has been completed, and the general direction continues to be bullish

Ethereum ended November with a beautiful positive line, which finally confirmed the formation of the golden cross of the monthly MACD, and there are already signs of breaking through the 0 axis. From the perspective of trading volume, the three consecutive positives on the monthly line (not counting this month) are also accompanied by a gradual increase in trading volume, which is a relatively healthy upward trend with volume, which makes the next market more imaginable. Space.

Judging from the trend of small levels, the price has been fluctuating in the range of 1904-2137 for more than 20 days. Within the shock range, the shorter-term market is oscillating upward along the blue line. Since November, ETH has been blocked above $2,100 three times in a row. This is the fourth time it has touched this area. If it is pushed back again, first see whether the support of the blue line continues to be effective. If it falls below the blue line, it means that this If the short-term volatile rising market ends, the price may continue to test support at the lower edge of the volatile range.

Although the 1-hour OBV data is climbing, it still shows a significant decline compared with the previous data. If the short-term price breaks through to a new high for the year, but the OBV fails to keep up, you still need to beware of the possibility of a false breakthrough.
At present, the last hurdle for ETH is the monthly MA30 moving average, with the price at $2,221. Only after it completely reaches this moving average, ETH is expected to open up further room for growth.

operate
Long orders near 2020 2080 have been closed and profits taken;
It is not recommended to continue to hold short orders near 2100;
Place a long order at the limit price of 1900 to see if there is a chance to receive it.

ETH: The short-term trend continues to fluctuate, and the end of the triangle pattern changes direction.

In the analysis of ETH on November 28, it was believed that the ETH market was in a shock adjustment stage at the daily level, and it was given long and short opportunities in the shock market. According to the analysis in the previous article, there is still some floating profit for the long positions established, but ETH only rose to a maximum of around US$2,076 yesterday, and the profit stop we set at 2,080 was not triggered.
At present, ETH has returned to the up and down oscillation mode again, but the range of price fluctuations has become narrower and narrower. A green triangle pattern can be drawn based on the price trend.
The 1-hour OBV data began to continue to decline. This is a bearish pattern, indicating that the positions of long funds are not firm and need to be vigilant. After forming a golden cross, the 1-hour MACD indicator currently shows signs of breaking through the 0 axis. If it completely stands on the 0 axis, it is expected to continue to guide the market upward.
It is expected that the ETH price will choose a direction at the end of the triangle, and the breakthrough of the upper and lower green lines will be the key.

operate
For long orders in hand, you can adjust the stop-loss price according to the position of the green line below. If you are not optimistic about the market outlook, you can adjust the take-profit price according to the green line above. Take profit when the price touches the green line above.

BCH: Go long and watch for trendline breakout

In the analysis of BCH on November 23, it was mentioned that the upward trend of BCH is running around an ascending channel. If the ascending channel is broken, the price may continue to find a new support point. BCH is still within the channel, and has been oscillating sideways for a period of time at the lower edge of the channel. There is a chance for a rebound to boost the market.
There are currently two downward trend lines for BCH. The blue line is a large-level downward trend line starting from the high point in the second half of the year, and the green line is an accelerated downward trend line. The price of BCH needs to break through the green line first, and then test the pressure of the blue line (yellow circle area). When the price breaks through the blue line again, BCH will usher in a new wave of upward trend.

operate
The limit price for long orders is 218, and the stop loss price is 212.

DOT: short-term head and shoulders bottom pattern, try to enter the market with long orders

On November 24, DOT's analysis mentioned that DOT had ended its previous upward trend and the price had begun to enter a consolidation stage. It believed that the current increase was only temporary and that it would continue to rise after the consolidation was over. It has been a week since the last analysis was released, and DOT’s consolidation trend has almost come to an end, and it may start to choose a direction within the next day or two.
Based on the last analysis, we tend to believe that DOT will choose the upward direction next. The blue line is a downward trend line coming down from the high level, which has suppressed the price many times. Only by breaking through this downward trend line can DOT usher in the next wave of rising prices.
In terms of technical indicators, the 1-hour OBV data continues to decline, and has begun to deviate from the price, suggesting pallet shipments. Although the 1-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, it did not allow the price to form a strong rebound. But at the same time, we also noticed that the price has been supported after touching around $5 many times. In the short term, a head and shoulders bottom pattern appeared, which is a short-term bullish pattern.

The valuation range was adjusted to 4.8-5.8 during the week

operate
Based on the above point of view, if you don’t have long orders currently, you can try to intervene with small positions and long orders near $5.1, with a stop loss price of $5.

DOGE: The rebound is strong and is expected to continue upward

In the analysis of DOGE on November 24, it was proposed that after DOGE breaks through the downward trend line, the possibility of continuing to fall sharply in the short term is unlikely, and long orders can be intervened in a timely manner. Then DOGE started a volatile upward trend. The current price, calculated according to the Fibonacci sequence, has exceeded the decline of 0.618. It is a relatively strong rebound and may even directly develop into a reversal trend.
In terms of technical indicators, the 1-hour OBV data continues to rise, indicating that bulls are constantly entering the market and have the opportunity to continue to raise the price. The 1-hour MACD did not fall after the dead cross appeared. Instead, it showed signs of intending to directly turn the dead cross into a golden cross through a strong rise.
Based on the recent upward trajectory of DOGE, an upward trend line (blue line) can be drawn. If the price has the opportunity to cross the blue line again in the future, you can try to enter the market with a long order.

Adjustment
The valuation range was adjusted to 0.075-0.085 during the week

operate
You can place limit price long orders between 0.79-0.8 to see if there is a chance to receive them, and the stop loss can be slightly relaxed.

TIA: Raise the target price and enter the market at the right time for long orders

Considering that there may still be a wave of altcoin rises in the market, TIA has the opportunity to rise again to a new high after the short-term adjustment ends, and the target price is raised to $7.6.

operate
The suggestion we gave in the last analysis to open a long position at $5.4 was originally a good entry opportunity, but the stop loss was placed too narrowly, and in the end the order was unfortunately stopped. If you have opened a long position at that time and haven't stopped the loss yet, you can hold it temporarily and set a 5.5 stop loss protection.
You can place multiple limit orders in the red line area (5.2-5.3) to see if there is a chance to receive them. The position leverage should not be too large, so that the stop loss price can be slightly wider.

ETH: Long and short opportunities in volatile market conditions

In the analysis of ETH on November 27, it was mentioned that ETH is currently in the adjustment stage at the daily level. Yesterday, the ETH price fell and hit around $1,985 before rebounding. Since the lowest point (yellow circle position) has entered the downward channel, we tend to believe that the support effect of the downward channel is not obvious, and there is a high probability that it will continue to find a new one in the future. Lower support.
From the perspective of technical indicators, in the 1-hour data, OBV has rebounded slightly, which is a short-term stop signal; MACD has formed a golden cross and begun to approach the 0 axis; the 30-day moving average temporarily suppresses the price. If it successfully stands above 2020, There is a chance for a short-term rebound.
Generally speaking, after the daily line has been negative for three consecutive times, there is a chance for a short-term rebound. However, this is just a rebound. The adjustment at the daily level has not ended. It is expected that the price will still be suppressed again after touching the red line area. return.

operate
Short-term long-term opportunities: open a long position at the current price and take profit at 2080.
Short selling opportunities: Place limit price short orders in batches from 2090 to 2110.

BNB: Needle the daily MA90, update position management

Looking at BNB, the idea we gave yesterday was to ambush long orders along the daily MA90. From the current point of view, BNB finally stepped on a wave of MA90.
In the recent uncertain market situation, it is best to continue the logic of not being willing to fight in the short term and doing a good job in position management. For players who have received long orders, remember to set a protective take profit at the cost position, just like the previous short order at 257. After good position management, even if you may miss some potential meat, you will never take the order or lose money. Give the money to the dog farm.

ATOM: Continue the band, ambush near 8U

Looking at ATOM, yesterday our view was to close the long position at $9.4, take profit, and return to wait and see. From the latest market price, we noticed:
1. The daily MACD golden cross within a few centimeters did not form in the end. Judging from the trajectory, there are signs of downward divergence, and the short-term long-short victory has been decided;
2. The price of ATOM fell below MA7;
3. The price of ATOM fell below the 4-hour MA90, and has no intention of taking it back;
ATOM's disk information shows that it is friendly to short sellers. In this case, there are two options, one is to remain empty, and the other is to ambush long orders at a suitable position. Since ATOM is a type with solid fundamentals, we still follow the ideas of past analysis. The bullish strategy is the main one, so I prefer strategy 2. The specific ambush position can be selected from the 7.8 to 8U range. Over time, this will gain support from the long-term uptrend line and the daily MA90.

ETH: Monthly closing focus on $2006

1. At the peak on November 24, ETH only touched $2,133, failing to break through the peak of $2,141 during the year, which is a pity;
2. The daily MACD does not usher in a golden cross;
3. The price fell below the short-term key daily MA7;
4. The price returns to the interior of the triangle;
Ethereum is really disappointing this time. Just looking at the information on the disk, I really want to take a bite and I don’t know where to start. Since the specific implementation time of the Cancun upgrade has not been determined, Ethereum has also fallen into the same trap as Bitcoin. Without a vacuum period that is good for assists, the impact of Blast alone on an ordinary plate is still too small. As the end of November gets closer and closer, the end of the monthly line also coincides with the end of the triangle, so the real outcome will not be determined until November. The time point is set from January 30th to December 1st.
This week’s focus: $2006, corresponding to the end of the triangle.

BNB: Key moving averages lurk long orders

Last week we talked about the difficulties that centralized exchanges are in, and that we should not be too optimistic about CZ’s acceptance of punishment. Judging from the news that broke out today, CZ’s punishment may be more than 18 months. This wave of operations by Lao America has suddenly It's really disgusting, it's so deceiving.
For Binance, a lot of short-term negative news has been released. You can consider taking advantage of low-level long orders. The specific strategy can be ambush along the daily MA90 (today’s quotation is 222.2 US dollars).

ATOM: The increase is 21.9%, all long orders are closed, it is not suitable to fight

1. The price briefly rushed back to $10 on November 26, rising 21.9% from our limit long position of $8.2;
2. The current price has retreated to US$9.4, achieving a 14.6% increase relative to the cost of long orders. However, the golden cross of the daily MACD has not yet formed in the end, and the current outcome continues to be within a few centimeters;
The current market stage is not suitable for fighting. For long and short positions, just bring a good stop loss and short-term play. There is no need to rush with trend orders. Therefore, for the short and long position of ATOM, we tend to directly close the position manually to lock in profits. , return to the sidelines and wait patiently for the next suitable opportunity to intervene.