Bit_Rase

I’m watching $TRUMP more closely now because the chart has shifted from explosive momentum into a much more important test: buyers are defending the rebound, but price is still struggling to reclaim the overhead averages.
TRUMP is around $2.44, down roughly 2.6% in 24H, with a $2.30–$2.52 daily range. That is about a 9.6% high-to-low range, so this is definitely not a quiet market. 24H trading volume is around $308M, giving the pair plenty of activity for execution.
The bigger picture is interesting. TRUMP exploded from the $1.37 area in mid-August, reached above $3 several times, and then started producing lower highs. The recent daily data shows the momentum cooling after the huge Aug. 22 expansion, with Aug. 30 closing near $2.34 before recovering toward $2.44.
What caught my attention is the moving-average structure. The latest technical reading has MA5 around $2.435, MA10 around $2.426 and MA20 around $2.408, while MA50 is much higher near $2.479. So price is sitting around the short-term averages, but the MA50 remains overhead. RSI is around 46.6, while MACD is slightly negative at -0.013. That tells me momentum has not turned decisively bullish yet.
I also don't want to call the current volume “bullish” simply because it is large. TRUMP has already shown how quickly volume can expand during aggressive moves. What matters now is whether fresh volume appears above resistance, not just inside the range.
What I like
The $2.30 area has become an important short-term defense zone.
Price is currently holding around the MA5/MA10 cluster instead of collapsing straight back toward the August lows.
Liquidity is strong enough that execution should be considerably cleaner than on thin meme coins, with hundreds of millions of dollars changing hands over 24H.
What I don't like
The $2.52 area is directly overhead and has already acted as the recent 24H ceiling.
MA50 around $2.48 adds another layer of resistance.
RSI is neutral rather than showing strong momentum, while MACD remains negative.
And the macro backdrop isn't particularly friendly for high-beta meme exposure right now, with markets pricing a relatively high probability of a September Fed hike.
So I'm not chasing $2.44.
My preferred setup is a breakout + retest, not a market buy inside the range.
Trigger: reclaim $2.52–$2.53 with clear buying volume and hold that area on the retest.
Entry: $2.53
SL: $2.40
TP1: $2.72
TP2: $2.93
TP3: $3.06
At $2.53 entry and $2.40 invalidation, the risk is roughly 5.1%.
TP1 offers about 7.5% reward, giving roughly 1.46R.
TP2 offers about 15.8%, or roughly 3.1R.
TP3 offers about 20.9%, around 4.1R.
The important part is that the setup only becomes attractive after the $2.52 ceiling is actually reclaimed. Until then, buying directly underneath resistance gives me mediocre risk/reward.
Key levels
Resistance: $2.52–$2.53 — current range ceiling.
Resistance: $2.59 — recent higher liquidity area.
Support: $2.40–$2.41 — short-term average/structure zone.
Support: $2.30 — current 24H low and important structural defense.
Invalidation: below $2.30. Losing that level would damage the current recovery structure and make me step aside.
For me, this is a WAIT-THEN-REACT chart. I would rather miss the first few cents of a confirmed breakout than pay the market to sit underneath resistance.
The real question is: can $TRUMP turn $2.52 from resistance into support with fresh volume, or does this rebound fail before the breakout even starts?