US homebuilder sentiment just hit a 14-year low — we're talking 2011 levels. Sales have fallen off a cliff.
This isn't just about rates. It's about affordability breaking completely. When builders — who have every incentive to stay optimistic — turn this pessimistic, it's a real signal.
Housing has always been one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy. High mortgage rates + elevated prices + tighter lending = demand destruction. We've seen this movie before.
What's interesting: homebuilders were actually doing *fine* during the early rate hike cycle because supply was so constrained. Now even that tailwind is gone.
Watch housing starts, permits, and existing home sales in the coming months. If this sentiment persists, it'll ripple through lumber, appliances, furniture, and eventually employment. Housing doesn't move in isolation.
This isn't just about rates. It's about affordability breaking completely. When builders — who have every incentive to stay optimistic — turn this pessimistic, it's a real signal.
Housing has always been one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy. High mortgage rates + elevated prices + tighter lending = demand destruction. We've seen this movie before.
What's interesting: homebuilders were actually doing *fine* during the early rate hike cycle because supply was so constrained. Now even that tailwind is gone.
Watch housing starts, permits, and existing home sales in the coming months. If this sentiment persists, it'll ripple through lumber, appliances, furniture, and eventually employment. Housing doesn't move in isolation.