U.S. September CPI came in broadly hotter than expected:
1. **Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.6% expected and 3.4% in August), and 0.6% month over month (in line with expectations); core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.5% expected and 2.4% in August)**. Energy was the main driver (energy +5.2%/month, gasoline +9.1%, gasoline +34.2% year over year), but shelter reaccelerated to +0.4% and core inflation did not cool. Franklin Templeton’s Schulze said inflation’s spread beyond the gas pump “strengthens the case for further rate hikes,” though recent comments from officials suggest the bar for a hike in October is high. CME FedWatch: The probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting jumped from about 22% before the release to about 44–51.5% (ActionForex 43.7%, Investors.com 44%, Barron's 51.5%, CNN 49%; figures vary slightly by source and timing); the probability of at least one hike by December was about 85–96.5%. Sources: BLS via CNN/Barron's/Investors.com/ActionForex, 10/14
2. **Spot gold plunged about 1.5% after the release to around 4116–4117**: It was around 4153–4161 before the release, then fell to 4117 within five minutes. The full chain of pressure was in place: the 2-year yield surged about 13bp to 4.92–4.94% (the policy-sensitive end of the curve, with the move interpreted by the market as roughly equivalent to “half a rate hike”); the 10-year yield climbed to 5.29–5.31% (with last week’s high of 5.365% in sight); and the dollar index broke above 102.60 to 102.72, its highest since April 2025. Intraday context: closed around 4186–4188 on 10/13; Asian session on 10/14 closed around 4160.58 (-0.27%, down for two consecutive sessions). Technical levels: resistance at 4200/4250 (100-day moving average); support at 4150/4120/4100. Sources: beincrypto/financefeeds citing TradingView-CoinDesk/CNN, Sina Finance, 10/14
3. **Crude oil: Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran administrative building sends Brent back above 106–107**: Brent around 106.06–107.35 (+0.8–1.35%), WTI around 94.94–95.38 (+0.9–1.32%); Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said the attack caused a limited fire. Riyadh International Airport was hit four times in one week (Saturday’s attack killed 13). Reuters, citing two senior Iranian officials: The IRGC is using new tactics to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to push up oil prices and influence the U.S. midterm elections. OPEC said OPEC+ production rose sharply in September and raised its 2027 demand forecast. Energy was the biggest upside driver in September CPI, completing the oil prices → inflation → rate hikes chain.
1. **Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year (vs. 3.6% expected and 3.4% in August), and 0.6% month over month (in line with expectations); core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.6% year over year (vs. 2.5% expected and 2.4% in August)**. Energy was the main driver (energy +5.2%/month, gasoline +9.1%, gasoline +34.2% year over year), but shelter reaccelerated to +0.4% and core inflation did not cool. Franklin Templeton’s Schulze said inflation’s spread beyond the gas pump “strengthens the case for further rate hikes,” though recent comments from officials suggest the bar for a hike in October is high. CME FedWatch: The probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting jumped from about 22% before the release to about 44–51.5% (ActionForex 43.7%, Investors.com 44%, Barron's 51.5%, CNN 49%; figures vary slightly by source and timing); the probability of at least one hike by December was about 85–96.5%. Sources: BLS via CNN/Barron's/Investors.com/ActionForex, 10/14
2. **Spot gold plunged about 1.5% after the release to around 4116–4117**: It was around 4153–4161 before the release, then fell to 4117 within five minutes. The full chain of pressure was in place: the 2-year yield surged about 13bp to 4.92–4.94% (the policy-sensitive end of the curve, with the move interpreted by the market as roughly equivalent to “half a rate hike”); the 10-year yield climbed to 5.29–5.31% (with last week’s high of 5.365% in sight); and the dollar index broke above 102.60 to 102.72, its highest since April 2025. Intraday context: closed around 4186–4188 on 10/13; Asian session on 10/14 closed around 4160.58 (-0.27%, down for two consecutive sessions). Technical levels: resistance at 4200/4250 (100-day moving average); support at 4150/4120/4100. Sources: beincrypto/financefeeds citing TradingView-CoinDesk/CNN, Sina Finance, 10/14
3. **Crude oil: Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran administrative building sends Brent back above 106–107**: Brent around 106.06–107.35 (+0.8–1.35%), WTI around 94.94–95.38 (+0.9–1.32%); Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said the attack caused a limited fire. Riyadh International Airport was hit four times in one week (Saturday’s attack killed 13). Reuters, citing two senior Iranian officials: The IRGC is using new tactics to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to push up oil prices and influence the U.S. midterm elections. OPEC said OPEC+ production rose sharply in September and raised its 2027 demand forecast. Energy was the biggest upside driver in September CPI, completing the oil prices → inflation → rate hikes chain.