$PONS nailed it.
15m volume surged 9.6x and price got slammed lower, breaking below the lows of nearly 20 5m candles. The aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.63, so sellers are clearly in control. But the interesting part is OI: it’s down just 0.42% on the 15m, while the 1h notional change actually shrank by 1.18M.
This doesn’t look like fresh shorts piling in to push the price down. It looks more like longs panicking and getting stopped out one after another. Positions are shrinking as price falls—a classic deleveraging pattern, not short buildup.
The anomaly percentile is 99, ranking #13 across the whole pool. I’m not keen to chase shorts here; the tail end of a long squeeze is often sharp but short-lived.
Let OI stabilize first. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.
15m volume surged 9.6x and price got slammed lower, breaking below the lows of nearly 20 5m candles. The aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.63, so sellers are clearly in control. But the interesting part is OI: it’s down just 0.42% on the 15m, while the 1h notional change actually shrank by 1.18M.
This doesn’t look like fresh shorts piling in to push the price down. It looks more like longs panicking and getting stopped out one after another. Positions are shrinking as price falls—a classic deleveraging pattern, not short buildup.
The anomaly percentile is 99, ranking #13 across the whole pool. I’m not keen to chase shorts here; the tail end of a long squeeze is often sharp but short-lived.
Let OI stabilize first. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.