The essence of trading is simply waiting for the flowers to bloom. When you’ve watched the order book and the candlestick charts long enough, you know where things will rise and where they’ll fall—everyone has that figured out. What’s hard is that most people just want the flowers to open immediately, to enter the market immediately, without the patience to wait for the season when they bloom. Their money either comes with a high price tag or ongoing costs, or it’s just waiting to pay rent and buy meals. So they can’t wait for the blooming season; they end up becoming fertilizer for the flowers too soon—turning into liquidity in the market itself and losing all their chips.
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🌅 Dawn Breaks the First Page, with Mountains and Seas in Your Heart 🍃 Fluctuations in the market rise and fall—this is normal. No need to let short-term swings stir your emotions 📊 Deepen your understanding, let it settle within, and keep your own rhythm steady ✨ All the quiet accumulations will eventually turn into the confidence to move forward 💛 The road is long—go forth calmly with like-minded companions who share the same frequency 🌟
After the Non-Farm Payrolls came out, my biggest takeaway is that the Fed has even more compelling reasons to hold steady in October.
First, let’s look at a few key figures. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In addition, revisions over the previous two months total a downward adjustment of 60,000. In the interest rate swap market, traders now price the probability of a rate hike in October at just 17%. Even more striking, the Kalshi prediction market prices a higher chance of holding rates steady in October at 85%.
The CME FedWatch data change is also very straightforward— the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose from about 76% the previous day to 86%.
In fact, before the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Fed officials had already been signaling this. New York Fed President Williams said there is “no need for urgency” around the next rate hike, and Vice Chair Jefferson also noted that policymakers need more time to observe the data. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian commented as well that this set of data will further reinforce the impact of recent Fed officials’ remarks, and market expectations for an October rate hike are cooling.
However, keep in mind: this Non-Farm report only makes rate hikes feel “less urgent,” but it does not mean a policy turn. Inflation is still the Fed’s top concern. While the probability of no move in October is high, how things play out in December will depend on subsequent inflation data.
A rain makes the old street’s pavement gleam. Beneath the towering buildings, the most ordinary life in the city is quietly tucked away. The sound of rain dulls the noise, and pedestrians slow their pace. Life doesn’t have to be hurried all the time—at this damp, quiet street corner, feel the gentle warmth of everyday life.
🌅Saturday morning light, sink in and gather strength🍃 As market conditions shift and turn unpredictable, real confidence comes from the knowledge you accumulate day by day📊 Don’t chase fleeting hot trends, don’t blindly follow short-lived noise✨ Stay patient, work diligently in silence—time will reward those who persist💛 Together on the way, we move steadily toward the distance that’s ours🌟 #比特币资金费率升至10%未平仓合约回升
Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits 10% as Open Interest Rebounds
🚨 Warning: Leverage is maxed out! BTC funding rate has surged to 10%, open interest has skyrocketed—big breakout/turning point countdown! Many people only watch K-line charts for bullish or bearish moves, but they ignore the derivatives market that’s going off like an alarm. At the moment, Bitcoin’s funding rate has already surged to an astonishing 10% (annualized). At the same time, open interest (OI) is showing a sharp, straight-line rebound. When these two figures are combined, it’s basically telling the entire market one thing: crazy off-exchange capital is going long at any cost with high leverage, and retail investors’ FOMO has reached its peak.
A truly great community is never held together by money alone
Make it so that a group of people are willing to stay in a community long-term— even when the market is at its most wild and chaotic— and are still willing to look out for one another. A truly high-level community is never built on big rewards, nor on airdrops, red envelopes, or so-called “benefits.” Money can bring in traffic, but it can’t buy a sense of belonging. Today you give 100U; tomorrow others can give 200U. If you give one a whitelist, others can offer bigger limits. If you offer a higher split, others can offer higher returns. As long as the relationship between a community and its members remains at the level of self-interest, that relationship will never withstand market fluctuations.