After breaking below 83,000, the open interest on the contracts fell by nearly 9.4%. But that doesn’t mean the “selling pressure has already been cleared.”
On Binance spot, the 24-hour low touched $82,874.93. In the same period, the BTCUSDT perpetual open interest dropped from about 106,300 to 96,300 coins, and leverage has indeed been contracting. But look at the other side: across two consecutive complete 24-hour windows, spot trading volume actually increased by 13.1%, while the portion of aggressive buy trade value accounted for only 45.5%. Sellers are still acting more aggressively.
$BTC now looks more like “contract de-leveraging” and “spot sell pressure” happening at the same time. You can’t read the decline in positions directly as a recovery in demand. Only if, going forward, the share of aggressive spot buy orders stays above half, trading value remains stable, and open interest stops shrinking would this interpretation need to change. The above covers only the Binance market and does not represent overall market capital flows.
On Binance spot, the 24-hour low touched $82,874.93. In the same period, the BTCUSDT perpetual open interest dropped from about 106,300 to 96,300 coins, and leverage has indeed been contracting. But look at the other side: across two consecutive complete 24-hour windows, spot trading volume actually increased by 13.1%, while the portion of aggressive buy trade value accounted for only 45.5%. Sellers are still acting more aggressively.
$BTC now looks more like “contract de-leveraging” and “spot sell pressure” happening at the same time. You can’t read the decline in positions directly as a recovery in demand. Only if, going forward, the share of aggressive spot buy orders stays above half, trading value remains stable, and open interest stops shrinking would this interpretation need to change. The above covers only the Binance market and does not represent overall market capital flows.