Weekly macro review | Policy implementation + rate hike implementation + quarterly settlement; BTC’s Q4 performance scenario
I. Two major core macro events from last week
1. U.S. crypto regulatory bill temporarily shelved in stages
In mid-September 2026, the U.S. Senate held a procedural vote on the (Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act). The bill ultimately failed to reach the 60-vote threshold to advance, passing 49–50. The bill is temporarily shelved and cannot be implemented. In the short term, expectations for industry standardization cool off, and a more relaxed regulatory stance fails to materialize as a positive for the market.
2. The Fed resumes interest rate hikes after a three-year pause
On September 16, the Federal Reserve officially raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range up to 3.75%–4.00%.
This is the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve in more than three years since July 2023. This decision was approved unanimously by all 12 FOMC members, with an extremely hawkish stance.
Key driver behind the rate hike:
U.S. inflation has remained above the 2% policy target for the long run. Coupled with the ongoing escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions and a major rise in international energy and oil prices, overall price pressure is being lifted again.
The latest dot-plot shows that most officials expect there is still a possibility of another rate hike later this year, indicating overall monetary policy remains tight.
II. Market performance: negative news confirmed, yet it doesn’t drop—stays strong
This week’s double macro negative news has been confirmed, and BTC overall is showing bearish-bad-news-already-priced-in, ranging resilience.
Throughout the whole period, the 75,000 key support at the daily level was held firmly with no deep pullback. Current price has returned above 80,000 USD; the long “base” is solid and the buy-the-dip/absorption strength is very strong.
III. Key impact of the quarterly options settlement this Friday
This coming Friday will see concentrated settlement of BTC 2026 Q3 quarterly options.
Deribit platform data shows that the settlement open interest for this round is nearly 200,000 BTC, making it extremely influential in terms of market weighting.
This quarter’s biggest “max pain” price is $72,000, and the overall pain-point range concentrates in $70,000–$80,000.
If the settlement price lands in this range, it will generally suppress option buyers for this quarter, favoring sellers.
Based on historical cycle patterns:
In a non-bull-market phase, under the weekly long structure, the quarterly settlement prices for most contracts will likely track within the pain-point range; short-term market sees intensified ranging and hedging battles.
IV. Two major core market paths after the fourth quarter
With the Q3 settlement rolling out and the Q4行情 beginning, the market afterward will split into two clearly defined paths:
Path one: continuation of the long trend, breaking upward (a probability-biased scenario)
If the market can effectively hold above and break through 82,000 USD, $BTC will officially open up a new upside space.
In the next stage, BTC enters a breakout-and-rally consolidation range of 82,000–92,000, with the upper pressure line expected to be around 92,000.
The market has already shown clear signals of continued upside momentum. After the settlement, the trend will become completely clear, and the market direction at the beginning of October will be basically set.
Path two: stage top forms, wide-range consolidation
If 82,000 becomes the interim peak of this cycle, then the rebound that started from 60,000 will be considered to have ended.
In the next stage, the market will enter a broad range of 68,000–82,000, with prolonged ranging consolidation and systematic position-washing—waiting for the next cycle of trend selection.
V. Personal trading plan
1. By late September (before next Friday’s settlement): continue executing the covered-call strategy to steadily capture ranging returns.
After the quarterly settlement ends: stop covered-call (buy-write) operations and switch to holding long futures as a core position.
3. Set aside a two-week observation window: focus on confirming whether the long trend continues; only then decide on subsequent adding to positions and the timing for swings.