BTC reclaims $80,000—and instead, I want to confirm one thing.
Yesterday we discussed:
BTC has resilience, but stablecoin and ETF flows have not yet formed a clearly strong structure.
Last night’s market provided the first layer of validation.
After Fed Waller signaled the possibility of a pause in further rate hikes, market pricing for September rate hikes dropped noticeably. Treasury yields fell, and BTC quickly broke back above $80,000.
This suggests that the earlier “can’t go down” dynamic really is worth paying attention to:
Once macro pressure loosens even slightly, BTC shows clear upward price elasticity.
But here’s an easy misinterpretation:
Price up ≠ the new uptrend is confirmed.
The issues we observed yesterday are still there—
Crypto still needs continued verification of incremental internal liquidity.
So my view is shifting from:
“Just observing price resilience”
to:
“Resilience has received initial validation, but waiting for capital confirmation.”
Going forward, I’ll mainly watch three things:
① Whether BTC can truly hold above $80,000—not just briefly break out and then fall back.
② Whether ETFs can shift from repeatedly flowing in and out to sustained net inflows.
③ Whether the growth rate of stablecoin supply can accelerate again.
If later we see:
**Macro pressure continues to ease
* ETFs keep flowing in
* Stablecoins re-expand
* BTC holds key levels**
Then the nature of the situation will change.
Because at that point it won’t be only:
“BTC can’t go down.”
It will gradually become:
“Capital is starting to support BTC moving higher.”
I’m increasingly focused on this distinction:
Price resilience lets me spot opportunities early,
while capital confirmation determines whether I should raise my confidence in the trend.
$BTC #Crypto #stablecoin
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
Yesterday we discussed:
BTC has resilience, but stablecoin and ETF flows have not yet formed a clearly strong structure.
Last night’s market provided the first layer of validation.
After Fed Waller signaled the possibility of a pause in further rate hikes, market pricing for September rate hikes dropped noticeably. Treasury yields fell, and BTC quickly broke back above $80,000.
This suggests that the earlier “can’t go down” dynamic really is worth paying attention to:
Once macro pressure loosens even slightly, BTC shows clear upward price elasticity.
But here’s an easy misinterpretation:
Price up ≠ the new uptrend is confirmed.
The issues we observed yesterday are still there—
Crypto still needs continued verification of incremental internal liquidity.
So my view is shifting from:
“Just observing price resilience”
to:
“Resilience has received initial validation, but waiting for capital confirmation.”
Going forward, I’ll mainly watch three things:
① Whether BTC can truly hold above $80,000—not just briefly break out and then fall back.
② Whether ETFs can shift from repeatedly flowing in and out to sustained net inflows.
③ Whether the growth rate of stablecoin supply can accelerate again.
If later we see:
**Macro pressure continues to ease
* ETFs keep flowing in
* Stablecoins re-expand
* BTC holds key levels**
Then the nature of the situation will change.
Because at that point it won’t be only:
“BTC can’t go down.”
It will gradually become:
“Capital is starting to support BTC moving higher.”
I’m increasingly focused on this distinction:
Price resilience lets me spot opportunities early,
while capital confirmation determines whether I should raise my confidence in the trend.
$BTC #Crypto #stablecoin
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
