I’ve been watching the macro numbers more closely lately, because crypto can look fine on the chart while the bigger liquidity picture is quietly getting worse. This latest US data is one of those cases where I’m not sure the market can easily pick a direction.
PCE inflation coming in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% expectation, tells me the inflation fight is nowhere near finished. At the same time, Q2 GDP growth was confirmed at just 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1. That combination is uncomfortable. Growth is losing momentum while prices are still running well above the Fed’s 2% target.
For crypto, I think the rate path matters more than the headline stagflation label. If inflation stays sticky, the Fed has less room to cut aggressively, and that can keep liquidity tighter for longer. That’s usually not the environment I want to see when positioning in higher-risk assets.
The jump in September hike expectations, from roughly 36% to 44%, also caught my attention. It’s not a certainty, but it shows how quickly expectations can shift on one inflation print.
I’m still watching core PCE, employment and financial conditions more than any single number. If growth keeps slowing while inflation refuses to cool, the Fed’s room to maneuver gets pretty narrow. I’m wondering how much crypto has actually priced that in.
PCE inflation coming in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% expectation, tells me the inflation fight is nowhere near finished. At the same time, Q2 GDP growth was confirmed at just 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1. That combination is uncomfortable. Growth is losing momentum while prices are still running well above the Fed’s 2% target.
For crypto, I think the rate path matters more than the headline stagflation label. If inflation stays sticky, the Fed has less room to cut aggressively, and that can keep liquidity tighter for longer. That’s usually not the environment I want to see when positioning in higher-risk assets.
The jump in September hike expectations, from roughly 36% to 44%, also caught my attention. It’s not a certainty, but it shows how quickly expectations can shift on one inflation print.
I’m still watching core PCE, employment and financial conditions more than any single number. If growth keeps slowing while inflation refuses to cool, the Fed’s room to maneuver gets pretty narrow. I’m wondering how much crypto has actually priced that in.