Bitcoin's "HODL Waves" Indicate Price Increases
Short-term holders, those who keep Bitcoin for a maximum of 155 days, are increasing. Specifically, investors holding for three months or less now make up 14% of the Bitcoin supply.
These investors, often making speculative moves, might either sell their positions after a few months or become long-term holders, keeping their Bitcoin for 155 days or more.
Looking deeper into the HODL waves shows an interesting trend. As the percentage of short-term holders reaches certain levels, they often become long-term holders, following patterns seen in previous cycles. This change results in a larger portion of the Bitcoin supply being held by these investors.
However, the cycle peaks when short-term holders dominate, controlling around 80% of the supply. This typically happens at market tops, as these investors push up the price in a FOMO excitement, causing long-term holders to sell their holdings…