What Will Happen Next?
The Bitcoin spot ETF is upon us, and we've got 12 predictions on what's going to happen with the Bitcoin spot ETF. Here we go!
⚡️Swift Trading Start: Approval on Wednesday and trading starts on Thursday, minimizing the gap between the two events.
💸Inflow Surge: The ETF will receive $2 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) in the first 48 hours, setting a record and surprising traditional finance.
💥Strong Initial 30 Days: A forecast of $5 billion in AUM within the first 30 days, showcasing a robust start, constituting about 5% of the gold market.
🏦BlackRock Emergence: BlackRock is expected to emerge with the most assets outside of Grayscale, becoming a significant player in the Bitcoin spot ETF market.
💰Marketing Spending Spree: Anticipating at least $100 million spent on marketing in the first year across various spot ETF issuers, despite restrictions on directly advertising the ETF.
🎺Super Bowl Advertisement: A bold prediction that at least one Bitcoin spot ETF ad will be played during the Super Bowl, showcasing the mainstream potential of the cryptocurrency market.
🤝Financial Advisors Allocation: Financial advisors in the US are expected to allocate 1 to 3% of their client's assets into the Bitcoin spot ETF, potentially leading to significant capital inflow.
💲Sovereign Wealth Fund Involvement: At least one Sovereign Wealth Fund will announce the purchase of the Bitcoin spot ETF within the first 12 months, adding legitimacy to the asset class.
🥈Ethereum ETF Speculation: As Bitcoin gains approval, speculation around the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF is expected to intensify by the end of Q1.
📈Cross-Asset Capital Inflow: Non-Bitcoin ETF issuers are expected to allocate some of their AUM into the Bitcoin spot ETF, driving net new capital inflow from existing funds.
🖥Volatility Reduction: Bitcoin's volatility will drastically reduce in the next three years, potentially leading to less excitement among those seeking asymmetry in returns.
📉CAGR Decline: Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is forecasted to fall to 20% within five years, reflecting a shift towards a more traditional asset-like performance.
Bonus Prediction:
⚔️Fee War Escalation: A fee war is expected among spot ETF issuers, leading to a 50% or more reduction in fees by crypto exchanges and custodians within the next three years. Increased competition from ETFs will put pressure on other platforms to stay competitive.
What are your thoughts on what will happen after the approval of a spot BitcoinETF? 🤔