5 Phases of the Bitcoin Halving (2019) - Part 2

Bitcoin is currently 189 days away from its Halving in 2024

So in this post, we'll be looking into the specific #BTC   price behaviours in 2019 during the 189-day period leading up to the 2020 Halving

This is done to better understand the recurring phases in Bitcoin leading up to the Halving

This will inform our understanding on what to expect in the coming several months for the 2024 Bitcoin Halving

2019

1. Pre-Halving Period (orange)
At this very same point in the cycle (~189 days prior to the 2016 Halving), Bitcoin retraced -38%

Bitcoin then relief rallied afterward only to form a new Lower High resistance (black) and retrace -63% afterwards due to the Black Swan COVID-19 crash

During this crash, Bitcoin formed a Macro Higher Low (black), downside wicking considerably below it, but Weekly Candle Closing above it

During this Pre-Halving period, there were multiple opportunities for both downside retracements and upside relief rallies

This Pre-Halving volatility lasted until two months before the May 2020 Halving

This is when Bitcoin performed its Pre-Halving Rally

2. Pre-Halving Rally (light blue)
After bottoming at the Macro Higher Low (black), Bitcoin experienced an almost uninterrupted uptrend to reach the very same Pre-COVID highs

3. Pre-Halving Retrace (dark blue circle)
Just before the Halving, Bitcoin experienced a -20% Pre-Halving retrace

4. Post-Halving Re-Accumulation (red)
After the Pre-Halving retrace, Bitcoin consolidated for 10 weeks before finally breaking out to revisit the 2019 highs

Bitcoin rejected -21% from this resistance.

However on this revisit, the resistance was significantly weakened and couldn’t reject price for much longer

5. Post-Halving Parabolic Uptrend (green)
Bitcoin finally broke beyond the 2019 resistance (red) to enter the Parabolic Phase of the Bitcoin Bull Market.

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• Part 3 (How 2015 & 2019 could impact the 5 Phases of the Bitcoin Halving in 2023)

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