Today, the opening of US stock futures did not continue to rebound as expected, but fell sharply at the opening, which may have something to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Gold, crude oil and other commodities rose sharply this morning. Fortunately, it has little impact on the currency market. Now Bitcoin is wavering between risky assets and safe-haven assets. If it can get rid of the linkage with US stocks in the near future and continue to be linked with safe-haven assets such as gold, then the continued intensification of the conflict will be a certain benefit to us.

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Bitcoin’s next halving is less than 200 days away

Many people were disappointed after seeing the halving of spicy snacks this year, and thought that the halving of Bitcoin may also end the market. I think so. Halving is definitely a good thing. For a commodity like Bitcoin with a limited total amount, the reduction in supply will definitely be good for the price to rise. It’s just a matter of how much it will rise. And CZ also said yesterday that the hype before the halving is just market hype. Based on the experience of the past three halvings, the price of the currency will continue to hit new highs within a year after the halving. This is the unique cyclical charm of Bitcoin. There is no doubt that Bitcoin should still be the most worthwhile currency to invest in this year or even next year.

Even when the exchange rate of Bitcoin and CNY falls to a point where you can buy the bottom, you still do it by either exchanging coins or hedging with contracts, not by naked hedging with U. The first purpose is to earn BTC, and the second is to earn U, not to buy the bottom of Bitcoin and CNY when the price reaches that point.

Today, we look at the weekly chart of the big cake. It is still a very good trend. If it can hold 27,000 this week, the market trend in the first half of the month may spread to the whole month. Now we are afraid of two situations. One is that it will quickly rise and fall this week and cannot pass above 28,000. The other is that it will be linked to risky assets related to the US dollar (US stocks). In this case, the macro economy will cause a relatively large damage to risky assets. Sideways or slight increases are good things. It is good to hold the spot, after all, the halving is not far away.

Open three coins on the left

#FTT #ARKM #ATOM The risk of falling when opening a position on the left side is relatively high. If the price goes up, the loss will be even higher. I only built a bottom position, leaving enough room for losses.

FTT

FTT is the platform coin of the bankrupt FTX exchange. There is no problem with the fundamentals. Keep enough for the bottom position and use the rest for trading. FTX will hold an auction in the middle of this month and there is a high probability that it will be restarted, which will benefit from a wave of good news.

ARKM

ARKM is a blockchain data platform, AI track, using artificial intelligence engine ULTRA to help data retrieval, which is similar to GRAPH, but more advanced. The K-line position is basically in place, build a bottom position, and then slowly fill it up.

ATOM

ATOM, an old currency, is the token of COSMOS public chain. The difference between ATOM and#ETHcan be understood as the difference between the US federal system and the Chinese centralized system. The K-line prediction is in place, and the position is established.

Hundred-fold coin series ARB


1. Reasons for optimism: Currently, TVL ranks 4th, and it ranks first in all data in the L2 track. The public chain ETH is the absolute king, and ARB is the king on ETH. It also has the most popular native protocols. After the Cancun upgrade, the transaction fee has dropped significantly, and the ecology is more prosperous. It is the most worthy investment in the L2 sector.


2. Risk and return coefficient: medium-low risk, medium-high return


3. Valuation logic: According to the public chain valuation method, the valuation of the top L2 can reach 6-20% of the public chain. Here we take 10% for calculation, which is 10% of Ethereum's 1.6 trillion. ARB's peak valuation in the bull market in 2025 may reach 160 billion.

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