Binance Research, August numbers:
Crypto total mcap: +17.6% to $2.70T, driven by ETF inflows + rate trading.
$BTC +24.8% in 7 days — top 1% of weekly gains since 2020. The historical base rate on seven comparable spikes: higher a month later in all seven, higher at two months in six, avg two-month gain +18.3%. Sample caveat is theirs and it's real: n=7, and this move's short-covering fuel is spent.
Structure shift: equity-holder allocation to crypto 64% → 72%. Stablecoin allocation -22%.
TradFi perps: $53B weekend volume in August, ~12x from January. 24/7 cross-asset trading forming its own market.
Read: the rally's marginal buyer changed — from crypto-native to equity-allocator. That cohort trades macro. Which makes the 11th (CPI) and 16th (Fed) crypto events now, not just bond events.
#positioning #flows