factset

S&P 500 earnings spark heated debate in the square: FactSet figures show that, among companies that have already reported, roughly 86% have beaten EPS expectations. Overall earnings are about 29.2% higher than the consistent consensus forecast. The index is also hovering near historical highs again. Is the “beat” still powering additional buying of fuel stocks—or has the share price already digested most of the good news?

The data anchor is FactSet’s update on August 7. At that time, about 88% of component stocks had disclosed their Q2 reports. In the reported sample, 86% beat on EPS, above the five-year average of about 78%. Overall earnings beat expectations by about 29.2%, compared with a five-year average of roughly 7%. If things remain in this range by quarter-end, it would be the highest overall earnings surprise magnitude since FactSet began tracking in 2008; the prior record was about 23.2% for Q2 2020. On the revenue side, about 76% beat expectations; overall revenue beat by about 3.2%, and year-over-year revenue growth is about 15%.

The mixed reading for year-over-year earnings growth is roughly 50.4%, the strongest since Q2 2021. But this line is being significantly lifted by two giants. Alphabet’s Q2 GAAP EPS is about 9.11 versus expectations of about 2.88; the other-revenue category includes roughly $98 billion in unrealized gains on equity securities. Amazon is about 5.75 versus 1.82; the other income category includes roughly $53.4 billion, largely related to investments in Anthropic. FactSet’s calculations show that after excluding these two companies, the overall earnings surprise drops to about 10.9%, and the year-over-year growth rate falls to about 32%. A 10.9% surprise is still above the five-year average, but it’s a far cry from the 29.2% implied by the headline.

【How to read the tape】

(See the structural chart in the cover and the正文配图, and read alongside the blue line oscillations and the right-side Fib dashed lines.)

First, both breadth and magnitude are on the strong side. The earnings surprise isn’t just a one- or two-name show. In most of the eleven sectors, companies are still reporting year-over-year earnings growth. Profit margins are also being quoted in the media near the high end of recent years. This season’s fundamentals do appear to have given risk assets real underlying support.

Second, break down the headline growth rate. Treating unrealized investment gains as sustainable operating profits would set the bar too high for what comes next. For next quarter, watch whether the roughly 27% earnings growth rate that analysts are currently forecasting—after excluding one-offs and fair-value swings—can still hold.

Third, valuation has already moved ahead. FactSet’s then-quoted forward P/E for the next twelve months is about 20.0x, slightly below 20.4x at the end of Q2, but still above the ten-year average. The current S&P 500 level is around 7,786. Upward revisions to earnings can absorb some valuation pressure, but since the index is already near a new high, the marginal reward to the stock price from a single earnings beat often becomes thinner. Multiple strategy reports also note that the market’s reaction to good news has been more muted than in prior quarters.

For crypto readers, this headline is more like a gauge of risk appetite. U.S. equity earnings confirmation is strong; dollar liquidity and risk-asset sentiment usually loosen more easily. But that doesn’t automatically translate into the next bullish candle for Bitcoin or Ethereum. U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index, and the regulatory calendar will still interrupt the transmission chain.

【Watch list】

Keep an eye on three things. First, when FactSet updates again, whether 86% and 29.2% can still hold. Second, whether the forward guidance for Q3 will be revised up or down across the board. Third, when the index sets another high, whether trading volume and volatility expand in sync. If earnings keep getting revised up while the index can’t move, it suggests the positive news has already been deeply priced in. If the earnings outlook is pared back but the index remains firm, be alert that valuation is shouldering the risk on its own.

Do you trust the 32% growth “base color” after stripping out the two giants more, or are you more worried that next quarter’s hurdle has already been raised too high? Reply with your preference—or your fear of the hurdle.

$BTC $ETH #标普500财报超预期 #美股财报 #FactSet

Captain Dragonfly｜A finance blogger who likes analyzing data and candlestick charts.

Not investment advice. Earnings statistics change with the disclosure schedule; refer to FactSet and the companies’ official filings.

The U.S. third-quarter 2026 earnings season continues, and according to #FactSet , 67% of companies have exceeded revenue estimates, below the five-year average of 70% and the ten-year average of 68%. Meanwhile, 84% have exceeded earnings-per-share (EPS) expectations, surpassing the five-year average of 78% and the ten-year average of 77%. Earnings reports are expected to peak this Thursday. #Alert🔴