The holiday is over and we usher in a new week. I hope everyone has plenty of energy.

As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $27,950. The market experienced a rapid drop of 600 points after the release of the big non-farm data last night, and then rebounded strongly. Currently, in the Asian market, the daily trading volume is gradually increasing. From a technical point of view, the Bollinger bands of 1 hour, 4 hours and daily lines all show a fluctuating upward trend. Do these signs mean that the bull market is about to start?

From a purely technical perspective, the current market seems to have frequent signals of buying at the bottom and going long. However, the trend of the market is often affected by many factors, so more factors need to be considered when judging the general trend.

The release of the big non-farm data last night undoubtedly surprised many people. According to my expectations, the data should be close to the expected value or consistent with the previous one, and it is unlikely to affect the Fed's decision to raise interest rates. But the actual published value is 336,000, which is twice the expected value, which is shocking. As soon as the data was released, many people began to wonder whether the US Labor Department manipulated the data and adjusted the data to the needs of the government. However, regardless of whether the data is true or not, the determining factors of the Fed's interest rate hike have not changed, which is an unchangeable reality. Although this large-scale data is bearish for the market, the market did not fall sharply as expected, but rebounded quickly after falling 600 points, showing strong support. Especially in the second half of the night during European and American trading hours, the market did not see the recent large-scale sell-off, but instead increased buying. At 5 a.m., there was a large amount of buying, pushing the price to around $28,450. Although the market was subsequently pulled back under certain pressure, this incremental trading still brought heat to the market.

Many people may wonder why the big non-farm data is bearish for the market, but the U.S. stock market and crypto market rebounded quickly?

First, the non-farm payrolls data value is 336,000, far exceeding the expected value, which is essentially bad news for the risky financial market. However, from the perspective of data alone, it is good for the US economy. The increase in employment indicates the strong momentum of the US economy, indicating that US companies have added jobs, which is based on the premise that the company is developing well and its own manpower needs have increased, rather than for the consideration of losing money. Therefore, the rise in non-farm data can be understood as the good state of US companies, or even better, which shows the strong resilience of the US economy from a certain perspective. However, the bearish sentiment in the market comes from the fact that the good data may lead to a faster rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Although the expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the end of the year has risen from 46% to 56% as soon as the data was released, the crypto market quickly fell 600 points.

Why did the market rebound?

In fact, despite the negative data, the expectation of rate hike has not changed. The previous expectation of rate hike was 46%, and after the data was released, the market had already expected rate hike, so the market did not continue to panic about rate hike, but instead defaulted to rate hike when it rebounded. Although the US dollar index and the US bond market fell frequently after the data was released, this was mainly due to capital repatriation. Before the data was released, some funds flowed to the US dollar and US bond markets to seek safe havens. However, after the data was positive for the US economy, these funds began to flow back to the market, and perhaps to the crypto market.

In addition, although the U.S. Treasury yields rose, the prices of old bonds in the U.S. Treasury market fell. This is because the expectation of interest rate hikes has led to an increase in banks' borrowing costs, so the yields of old bonds are higher than those of new bonds. This has also led to a drop in the prices of old bonds. Although the U.S. Treasury yields have risen, this does not mean that the U.S. Treasury market is necessarily healthy, because it may also reflect the market's concerns about the U.S. economy.

From the perspective of the global macroeconomy, despite the positive data, the market still needs to face some problems. Although the US economic data is good, there are also large-scale strikes. If the business performance is good, why are there strikes? This is a question that needs to be pondered. In addition, the retention and circulation of the global stablecoin market are gradually decreasing, funds are flowing out, and purchasing power is declining. The market launch requires real trading activity and investor confidence, and cannot rely solely on imagination. The market's rise needs to be supported by reality.

In general, although the market showed some positive factors during the holiday, including the increase in Asian trading and the return of funds, I am still not sure whether the market has turned to the bulls. The performance of the market after the opening on Monday will be an important reference factor. It is not recommended to open a position on the weekend, and wait and see.

Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the circle