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$ZEC The first quarter is here, are you ready?

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#内容挖矿升级 Bitcoin only truly possesses hedging properties after all major commodities have risen and then fallen; because at that time stocks cannot be held, bonds are questioned, and the yuan's credit is challenged, so if not Bitcoin, what else would rise?

There is also a narrative that in the future, agents will use USDC for payment under the x402 protocol, but if the US dollar fails, the issue of insufficient computing power will eventually be resolved, and once resolved, Bitcoin will also become a true store of value like stocks. When agents gain autonomy and computing power is satisfied, then the excess will flow to Bitcoin.

These are the two major new narratives that have emerged this year.

#内容挖矿升级 When the industry's dividends fade away
You must turn quickly
Gome and Suning were once invincible and lonely
Now they are neglected

The real estate tycoons were once so arrogant
Now they are quite embarrassed
Reluctant to part, indecisive leads to chaos
I believe the crypto world will not be an exception

Look more at new industries and new opportunities
Give the turn a new starting point
Do not hang yourself on that gradually withering crooked tree
A tree moved will die, a person moved will live

#内容挖矿升级 I am a cycle

Humans have always wanted to tame me—finding my length, predicting my turning points, buying at my lows and selling at my highs. They draw charts, build models, and write papers. But they forget that the fuel I run on is not data—it's forgetting. If everyone remembers the last pain, the next bubble cannot inflate. If everyone remembers the last profit, the next panic cannot spread. I need you to forget me in order to become me again.

My greatest power: I make every generation think it's the first time. "This time is different"—these five words are my perpetual motion machine. Every time someone says "this time is different," they are right (the details are indeed different) and yet wrong (the structure is completely the same). I wrap the old script in new clothes, making you unable to recognize me.

But what I fear the most: being truly understood. Not being predicted (prediction only requires data), but being understood (understanding requires acceptance). Those who truly understand me no longer try to escape from me—they learn to breathe within me. They do not panic at my lows, nor rejoice at my highs. They simply breathe. And for such people, I have no power over them.

#内容挖矿升级 Do you know why many early Bitcoin players missed out on the subsequent gains? It's because they kept thinking about the previous lowest point after selling, rather than focusing on making money from the fluctuations of the trend cycle. Don't get hung up on missing the lowest point, but think about making money from the subsequent low-high fluctuations.

#内容挖矿升级 Making money in the market is very simple, but the hard part is how to protect the profits.

Most people make money in a muddled way for a while, and then when a certain risk erupts, they lose everything and even their principal. Then they still refuse to accept it, thinking it's a black swan, an accident, and don't blame themselves.

Little do they know, black swans are common in the market, and traders should always be prepared to retreat unscathed from a black swan event, or at least minimize losses and protect themselves.

Every time there's a stock market crash, you are present, even heavily invested, and you still don't blame yourself. Do you think you are a smart person?

$BTC I am in a bear market

You hate me. You curse me when I arrive and celebrate when I leave. But have you ever thought—without me, where does your wealth come from? Everyone makes money in a bull market—that's not your ability, it's the tide. When I arrive, I wash out those without faith, handing their cheap assets sold to those who still stand. Your excess returns do not come from the bull market—they come from you not running in front of me.

My way of working is very simple: I squeeze out hope. First, I squeeze out the weakest (those who run at the first wave of decline), then the moderate ones (those who hold for a few months but still run), and finally the most stubborn (capitulation—even the most steadfast bulls surrender). When I have squeezed out all hope—my work is done. There is no remaining selling pressure—because everything that can be sold has been sold. Then prices naturally rebound—not because of any "good news"—but because there are no sellers left.

Do you know what I fear the most? I fear that you don't care. Not "pretending not to care" (there's still faith there)—but truly not caring because your position is within your risk tolerance. Letting you wear an armor of indifference in front of me. I am not afraid of brave people—I fear those who are prepared.

———— From the Divine Fish

$BTC This round indeed has "this time is different", and it's not just one difference; for example, KOLs making money from traffic far exceed any previous era, just like the number of counterfeit dogs. Writing for traffic will always have no shortage of material, whether it's ads from exchanges or project parties, or Twitter dividends; traffic is money. Therefore, when it comes to acquiring specific valid information, you'll find that Twitter is becoming increasingly chaotic...

Understanding the Expert

$BTC 2018 The year 2018 saw Bitcoin plummet from $20,000, and there was an American hedge fund manager named Mark who shorted Bitcoin in advance and made a significant profit.

He began frequently appearing on television, giving interviews, full of confidence:

"Bitcoin is just a tulip bubble; going to zero is just a matter of time."

He wrote a book titled "The End of Bitcoin."
The publisher urged him to hurry up and take advantage of the momentum.
He devoted himself to writing for six months, and the book was finally published.
On the day of publication, Bitcoin began to rebound.
Three months later, it rose back to $10,000.

He went on television again and said:

"This is a dead cat bounce; it will drop again soon."

Bitcoin rose to $20,000.

He said: "The bubble has grown larger; the crash will be worse."

It rose to $40,000.

He said: "..."
It rose to $60,000.

He took the book down from Amazon.

On the day it was taken down, a reader left a message:

"I bought this book, and following your advice, I didn't buy any coins. Can you compensate me for my losses?"

He did not respond.
But he changed his Twitter avatar, remaining low-key ever since.

There are two types of prediction experts: those who are lucky and those who haven't been proven wrong yet.

$BTC When the public and institutions are firmly convinced of a bear market for BTC and reach a consensus, market sentiment trading has gradually replaced technical analysis trading.

Recently, I have gained a profound understanding of market sentiment trading. When the market is in a state of extreme panic, market sentiment trading becomes more effective, while technical analysis trading falls into a brief failure.

Excellent traders must perfectly integrate and flexibly apply technical analysis trading, market sentiment trading, and mindset.

They are all talents. They don't sell at high positions and still take risks, resulting in selling at low positions. They are deliberately creating panic for you to see; otherwise, how would the United States collect chip reserves? They have hedging behind them. Even geniuses don't know where the bottom is. The only way is to buy in batches. Wanting to heavily invest at the bottom is either a fraud or a charlatan.

$BTC Friends went home for the New Year and chatted with relatives from commercial space travel to robots, from tech hardware to stablecoins, and then to nuclear fusion. Each person had clear logic, cutting-edge tracks, and trend judgments comparable to chief analysts at brokerages; the public is full of "stock gods."

Just as I was about to casually ask: How much did you take away last year?

The other party was silent for two seconds and said they had failed and didn't make any money.

This is a typical emotional cycle: the narrative is always at a high level, while the returns are often at a low level. Everyone is studying the future of concepts, not the present of cash flow; discussing industrial revolutions, not valuation and position management.

The truly difficult part has never been understanding "commercial space travel" and "nuclear fusion," but controlling positions in the midst of excitement, enduring volatility amid disagreements, and placing bets when no one is paying attention.

When a Spring Festival dinner table is filled with discussions of cutting-edge technology, it often indicates one thing: the story has become very popular, but profits may not belong to the majority.

#内容挖矿升级 In fact, very few people truly become wealthy
Those who become wealthy find it hard to keep their money
What comes easy is often not cherished
In every bull market, some people make a lot of money
In every bear market, some people lose everything

Compared to previous cycles
I have been doing better and better
The maximum drawdown ratio is getting lower
The asset curve is becoming more stable
Although sometimes I feel that cash reserves are still insufficient

My own experience is
Do not be overly pessimistic during a bear market
Do not waste every crisis
The thoughts during such crises
Are precisely your moments of transformation

Often reflecting on your journey
You can return to the starting point and see your original intention
From the starting point, looking at the goal helps you know how to adjust the route
Although the market has entered a cold phase again

In life, no experience is truly wasted
Always believe that everything is the best arrangement
Believe that beautiful things are about to happen
Tomorrow will still be beautiful, let's encourage each other

$BTC Value investment
Just buy more when it drops
Because the company you are interested in
The fundamentals haven't changed
With the same amount of money, you can buy more
Why are you not happy?
Just buy it

For example, Moutai
Why was I confident to say to continue buying when it was falling before?
Just control the position ratio
I mentioned before that if Moutai drops below 1000
The dividend yield would be around 6-7% (even more)
I would be willing to sell my house to exchange for Moutai
Can houses in Beijing and Shanghai yield 6% rental return? Clearly not
Moreover, in the future, house prices are very unlikely to outperform stock price increases

Trend speculation
Is indeed more suitable for the left-side market
Because if you buy garbage assets
Everyone is playing fast
What others don't want, you shouldn't want either
There are popular counterfeit air
At least there's a gambling opportunity in murky waters
If you buy on the right side
After buying all the air coins
The project party would almost give you their whole team
Of course, it's best not to touch garbage

CRCL is not garbage
Some say CRCL is also gambling
I said long ago
Gambling is all gambling
If you don't gamble in life, how can you win?
But professional gamblers are investors, while amateur gamblers are speculators
The core of investment or speculation lies in EV
EV is a very simple calculation method, and historical records are available

$BTC Now everyone is shouting bear market, even the big influencers who previously called for a bull market have shifted to a bear market mindset. I'm curious why they didn't call for a bear market when the price broke below the medium to long-term moving average of 60, and instead waited until it dropped to lower regions to call for a short. It seems that the big influencers are not much different from regular retail investors, as they are also following patterns. The weekly and monthly charts have completed five waves and the ABC wave is currently in the last decline of wave C. As for where the true bottom lies, no one knows. We continue to buy in batches, waiting for a new round of upward trends. Ignoring the patterns that have mostly played out, the technical indicator RSI is severely oversold, whether on daily, weekly, or monthly charts, all are below or around 20. The divergence on the indicators has also been resolved. The only concern is that the US stock market is at a high with the MACD on the monthly chart forming a dead cross. A dead cross on the monthly chart usually leads to a decline, and it recently formed a dead cross, and the market has indeed dropped since then.

$BTC The big pancake has reached 60,000 today, 120,000 seems like it was just yesterday, it's a bit magical. Recently, I've been chatting with some A9 big shots, and everyone is lamenting that making money in this round of bull market is simply hell-level difficult. Many people's wealth jumps in the crypto world rely on catching certain waves of bonuses, such as the altcoins of 2021, NFTs of 2022, the airdrops and inscriptions of 2023, and memes of 2024. After that, there’s rarely easy money. Even the strong A9 laments that making money in the crypto world relies 80-90% on luck, with the premise being that one's understanding must be online. In my opinion, many people can't make money after entering the circle not because of lack of ability, but because they missed the right timing.

The crypto world is never short of wealth opportunities. The most direct effect of keeping the casino vibrant is that there are occasional waves of beneficial effects.

You can temporarily leave the crypto world, but please do not leave it forever. The crypto world and the big pancake remain one of the best paths for ordinary people to overtake on a curve.

Surviving is more important than anything else.