K线人生飞哥

To introduce myself to my followers

Hello everyone, I am Feige. I entered the circle in 2017, and I consider myself an old player. Along the way, I have encountered countless pitfalls and have summarized some of my own methodologies. From initially blindly following trends to now focusing more on studying cycles, macro trends, and funding logic, I have gradually found my own rhythm.

Throughout this journey, I have realized that the crypto world is not just about rises and falls; it is more like a cyclical game: some are FOMOing during the highs, while others are quietly positioning during the lows.

I currently work as a blogger at Binance Square, sharing some personal thoughts and observations. I am not a guru; I am just an old player who has experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid detours, and also gain new inspirations through communication.

If you also believe in cycles, believe in logic, and believe in long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become fellow travelers here.

Regarding the viewpoints of my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, so my viewpoints will also change with the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously following industry progress can we keep growing. Sticking rigidly to conventional wisdom will only lead to being eliminated by the times. I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: My viewpoints published in the square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if the long-term outlook is bullish, there will still be pullbacks; and even if the long-term outlook is bearish, there will be rebounds. Don’t let short-term viewpoints affect your long-term perspectives. An upward trend does not mean it will only rise without looking back; more often, it is a trend of rises and falls. Similarly, a downward trend is not a continuous crash without rebounds; more often, it is a downward trend with fluctuations. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be blindly trusted, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate a bit; some things need to be understood to a certain extent. You can't just buy whatever others say. Especially if you have limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me. You are my motivation to keep sharing, and I hope we can all reap our own rewards in the cycle.

If you need a commission rebate, scan the QR code on Binance to add me as a friend. It's simple and easy to understand, and you can easily get in touch with me 🤝

To summarize: since the market started on August 20, this is the most talked-about coin I’ve posted about on the forum.

For the major coins—excluding BTC, ETH, and SOL—

the secondary-market altcoins I’ve posted about the most in this period are:

UNI — the fundamentals have changed
HYPE — the strong always keep winning
LIT — the second HYPE
NEAR — the L1 blockchain transition has gained market recognition
RAY — the current hotspot
PUMP — the largest MEME launch platform on the SOL chain
ENA — the leading stablecoin-sector player
ARB — the fundamentals have changed
PONS — a new-generation MEME launch platform
FIL — a deflation expectation
AAVE — the DeFi lending leader
Bull Come — a phenomenon-level Chinese IP meme coin
USELESS — an abstract MEME coin

ETHFI, TAO, ZEN, ASTER, ETC, ONDO — there may be potential to catch up as well.

For these coins, my selections at the beginning were based on news flow and technicals. So from August until now, the followers and friends who’ve been watching me also all know my strength in altcoins. In general, I’ve mostly been moving with market hotspots, and everyone has gotten fairly good results.

Also, most of my operations are: after obtaining low-priced positions, I then freely manage and let the market validate the trend, so I don’t spend time researching every day.

Apart from on-chain hotspot MEMEs, there aren’t that many people who can really play the secondary market seriously. If you truly don’t know how to play it, I hope my updates can give you a bit of reference.

Of course, this is only my personal opinion—make your own judgment. DYOR

$SUI is moving very steadily. On September 15, in the VIP community we asked everyone to buy around 0.7. In this round, the dip to the lowest point was 0.67. Around 0.7, we basically bought at the low point. Of course, many people will say SUI is rising because everything is rising. But at the lowest point, how many people actually dare to buy? And how many influencers are willing to tell people to get on board? Most people are waiting for a bigger pullback. Just being willing to buy at this point means you can win over the vast majority.

SUI itself is an L1 in the Move ecosystem. Its core fundamentals include transaction fees, staking, and governance. In addition, there’s also the public-chain ecosystem, DeFi growth, and spot ETFs.

Recently, SUI has also started playing the coin/stock MEME narrative. If this narrative cycle really starts a flywheel effect, SUI should be able to repeat the trend from the previous bull market.

Old-school DeFi projects like UNI, AAVE, PENDLE, and SKY have basically already taken off. This $CRV wave hasn’t moved much yet, but it could be because it has already risen a lot previously. However, from the very bottom to now, the upside still looks decent. Next, CRV will likely follow and catch up with a further surge. This coin/dog’s trading style is very obvious: either it doesn’t pump at all, or it pumps continuously for a few days and directly doubles.

There are only three truly promising on-chain U.S. stock plays: $HOODB 、$UNI 、$HYPE .

HOOD itself is a publicly listed brokerage firm, and in the future it can directly participate in on-chain issuance and trading of U.S. stocks.

UNI’s logic is that the SEC this time granted a 5-year innovative exemption for on-chain stock AMMs. DEXs like Uniswap, which pool assets, therefore stand directly at the trading infrastructure layer. As more and more U.S. stocks move on-chain in the future, the fees generated by trading will naturally flow to AMMs/DEXs. UNI captures the layer of on-chain U.S. stock trading volume and trading fees.

HYPE’s core is on-chain U.S. stock contracts and leveraged trading. Moving the stocks themselves on-chain is only the first step; the real imagination space is in the demand for derivatives, perpetuals, leverage, and more.

So when I look at on-chain U.S. stocks now, I don’t really want to go hunting for a bunch of so-called “beneficiary” names.

HOOD captures the issuance and trading entry points, UNI captures spot AMM fees, and HYPE captures on-chain leveraged trading.

The value-capture logic of these three is actually fairly clear.

Of course, many people might think these three have already run up too much and don’t dare to get in—no worries. If you don’t get on, they will still keep rising.

$FIL took off 🛫, how could you miss out if you follow Feige
Last night we directly helped everyone find a coin that was likely to have a catch-up run. We got you in around 0.88. After getting in, today it just took off immediately. Our target is still to see whether we can hold steady around 1. According to the usual pattern, FIL should have already started running earlier, but later it was dragged down by the broader market environment. FIL typically doesn’t do pump-and-dump rallies; when it does run, it starts from at least a double. Up to now in this market move, FIL has barely really rallied. FIL has a deflation-positive news event in mid-October—if you’re holding long-term, there should still be room. If you’re holding short-term, then around 1 is the resistance level. Follow the strategy we use in our community.

Let me talk about Dogecoin $DOGE

A lot of people are holding this coin, so the market has been moving rather sluggishly. I still hold the same view as I did during the live stream: coins like DOGE $XRP $ADA —these long-established mainstream coins—usually only start their pullback in the middle-to-late stage of a bull market, and the pump period is generally brief: within about a week, they can already produce a 5x to 10x move.

We’re still in the transition from a bear market to a bull market, so it’s normal that these old mainstream coins are moving sluggishly. But the certainty is this: in every bull market cycle, these coins will pull up. They’re more suitable for patient investors to hold long-term. If you want to do short-term trading and play the swings, don’t choose these kinds of coins—just go for the market’s hot coins instead.

The most important reason they only rally in the middle-to-late stage of a bull market is that the “vehicle is too heavy.” Many retail investors like to buy these because they think they’re safer. So the market can only shake and wash them out until the middle-to-late stage of the bull market. Once retail investors have been lured away by all sorts of messy altcoins and they all get off the bus, these long-standing mainstream coins finally come into a phase of the main surge. Before that, they mainly move in coordination with BTC.

Address it directly—has the bear market ended？？？

Personally, I feel this round of bear market may have basically run its course. The market now looks more like it’s transitioning from a bear market to a bull market, based on the 2023行情.

There are now two very clear indicators: technicals and timing.

One is trend. The BTC weekly MA5 has already moved back above the MA25. To me, this is a pretty obvious change.

The other is time. If we count it, this bear market has already lasted close to a year. Of course, I don’t think that means it must reverse just because the cycle has played out for a year. In crypto, cycles have never been a precise clock. History can only be used for reference—it can’t be applied directly as a template.

Besides, this market already shows quite a few things that are different from the past. For example, the rapid sell-off in October last year, and this year’s rally in August—both are relatively rare situations in previous cycles. So we can’t blindly cling to old patterns. The only thing that never changes in the world is that everything keeps changing, and we need to keep up with those changes.

So if you keep waiting for a bottom where all indicators are confirmed and the lowest point can be pinpointed precisely, you’ll easily end up realizing that by the time you’ve confirmed it, the market has already moved a long way forward. That’s exactly why I previously kept suggesting DCA—because no one can buy at the very bottom precisely.

So for most people, what’s less important right now is guessing where the lowest point is.

What matters more is whether the market has started transitioning from a bear-market structure into a bull-market structure. As for what I’ll do next, it’s simple: every pullback will be an opportunity. Unlike others who keep shouting that the bull market has ended every time it dips, I plan to update a new post to share my approach for friends who missed the move. If you’re interested, please like and comment. If there are enough people, I’ll update it.

$XRP Continued profits on long positions. Yesterday, when $BTC broke through 80000, I had everyone go long on XRP directly in the VIP contract community. At this point, the orders also seem to be fine. I’ve always emphasized to everyone a viewpoint: when the market is starting up, BTC and ETH usually move first. If it’s confirmed that the trend has already reached that stage, then going after mainstream coins for their catch-up potential is a very high value-for-money move. That’s why I had everyone directly go long on XRP yesterday—including myself. In our community, we don’t just do spot; we also do synchronized contract trades. We set up by taking long positions in altcoin spot ahead of time, while at the same time placing contract positions on mainstream coins. So how could we miss the move? Join the community and just follow along with the trades.

$ETHFI price trend is still quite good—jumping up 20% in a single day. Now, the market is hyping mainly a few hotspot coins, and for most of the coins with strong momentum, they’re buyback-and-burn type altcoins. Once these altcoins have finished their noise, the market will rotate again to some leading coins from major sub-sectors. On September 17th, in the community, it was also fine to let everyone swap FIL for ETHFI. Over this weekend and the next couple of days, keep an eye on the行情. According to normal historical patterns, weekends are usually when BTC trades sideways, giving altcoins room to perform. Come fly with Flyge and let’s seize the opportunities together!

CZ started urging everyone to buy the dip again before this round of market uptrend began. He gave one set of trading calls before the July rally started, and then another one again just before the Federal Reserve raised rates the day before yesterday. It feels like in this cycle of the bull market, CZ is becoming a positive indicator. So far, it’s been fairly accurate. In the previous bull market, CZ was a classic contrarian indicator—whenever he posted bullish or seemingly bullish remarks, within three days the market would turn into a straight drop. But this time, the bull-market CZ indicator seems to be flipping to positive. Keep watching and tracking the CZ indicator 😂😂😂

$SOL Long positions continue to generate profits. The orders we provide in the community are very simple. We went long on SOL around 99 two days ago. After it reached our final target of 105, we directly updated the strategy again and saw 110. Now it has already successfully reached our target. The orders I post in the contract/derivatives community are simple too. I will follow and trade the same way myself. Since the market is moving, I also hope that both myself and the followers trading with me can seize the opportunity together. My view remains the same: our community doesn’t only have spot, we also have derivatives/contract trading, and we will all follow the trades in real time. Just follow Feige’s trades in the community—you’re good. When the market moves, we will seize it together.

The Fed should still have one more rate hike this year

According to the latest released interest rate dot plot, among the 18 policymakers, 12 voted that the target rate range by end-2026 will be 4%–4.25%. This suggests that before the year ends, there is likely to be another 0.25% rate hike—possibly in October, or possibly in December, depending on inflation data.

As for 2027, half of the policymakers think rates will reach 4.5% (another 0.25%), while the other half believe rates will be kept unchanged or cut.

For the farther future—2028 and 2029—most policymakers expect rates to keep trending downward, eventually finding equilibrium in the 3%–3.5% range.

But everyone should pay attention to this:

Once the Fed begins a sustained cycle of rate hikes, the market will not immediately pivot to rate cuts.

The logic is actually very simple:

Rate-hike policy itself has built-in continuity. Before the hikes are officially implemented, the market may still entertain some optimism. But once the hike takes effect, large funds will start withdrawing gradually.

Because large funds need time to build positions and exit; they can’t operate the way retail investors do, with casual moves.

If rate hikes or cuts happen frequently and arbitrarily, it would blow up these large funds. And many of these large funds are international investors, for whom stability is very important—so they generally won’t easily change their cycle.

However, the departure of large funds won’t immediately trigger a massive sell-off and sharp plunge.

The reason is simple:

If they dumped quickly and decisively, there would be no chance to complete distributing the holdings. Instead, it would cause a stampede effect, leading to everyone being unable to sell.

So the market would rather move in this kind of pattern: modest up-and-down rallies—using rising prices to slowly distribute shares, meaning raising prices to offload.

Note that the essence of “raising prices to distribute” is not to make everyone profit. It’s to attract retail investors to step in, and then ultimately complete the bag-holding.

And only after all the shares have been distributed does the market truly come under pressure to fall.

So what people are earning right now, in essence, is the money from this round of “pump-and-distribute.”

That’s why I still believe the current market is worth comparing to 2023: a bear market turning into a bull market. There will be major fluctuations in the middle, and the market will keep washing back and forth. Will there be a pullback? There definitely will be.

Many people say that because I watched the last dip and then you missed out, I want to say this: before mid-July, I indeed saw the last dip, and I said $BTC 5 million as a bottom-fishing entry. But on July 20th, for reasons that cannot be mentioned, my account was muted for a month. Then I kept updating with a spare account. On July 30th, I told everyone to do DCA (dollar-cost averaging). On August 3rd, when gold was at 4000, I told everyone the same thing—so to prevent missing out, I bought gold $XAU . On August 5th, I published another long post saying that it’s impossible to buy the very bottom; I advised everyone to focus on DCA.

Now that you’ve missed out, you come to blame me. OK, even if you didn’t see my spare account, then after August 20th, once my main account was unmuted, when the market rose to around 70,000, I also said that the bull market had likely started. I advised everyone to get in in batches. So in the end, did I cause you to miss out, or did you miss out because of your own actions? We’re all adults. Wanting to buy the very bottom is simply not something you can achieve. Even institutions build positions in batches. You yourself always want to buy the very bottom—now that you’ve missed out, you blame others. It’s always someone else’s fault.

I’ve been a blogger in the square for years. I won’t say I’m 100% accurate, but I’d say I’m about 80% accurate. Especially about the big direction, I basically don’t miss. Last year, when many people were shouting about a slow bull market, I was the first to stand up and say it’s impossible for it to be a slow bull market—it would definitely be a bear market. Back then, I was heavily criticized. When the bear market came, those people went silent. Still the same viewpoint. A lot of my followers started as haters; after following me for a long time, they truly understood me. They learned to read my market analysis, and in the end many of them turned into die-hard fans. Time will tell everything.

The tone of this bull market has already been set: 57,000 is the bottom of the bear market, and 200,000 is the peak of this bull market. However, according to the “run fast” principle, I plan to start unloading around 150,000 for those who are destined to cross paths.$BTC

Recently I came across a pretty interesting $SKY operation.

The Whale 0x4bf’s idea is actually very simple: find Tokens with a revenue distribution mechanism, buy in at a low price, then stake them while earning both from price appreciation and staking rewards.

Four weeks ago, it bought 5.63 million SKY tokens at a cost of about $3.4143 million, and then staked the entire amount. Two weeks later, it unstaked and sold the whole position—counting the rewards as well—ultimately selling for about $4.0634 million. This round netted roughly $65,000.

Over the past week, this address bought another 23.267 million SKY tokens from Binance and Kraken, with an average cost of about $0.576, for a total investment of around $1.34 million. Then, once again, it staked the entire amount.

What I think is truly worth paying attention to is SKY’s Tokenomics: part of the protocol revenue is used to buy back and burn, and the other part is distributed to holders via the mechanism.

For projects that generate real yield and can feed value back to the Token—if the short-term coin price isn’t rising yet, I think you can be a bit more patient. Of course, many people call SKY a garbage coin; I still hold the view that it’s a garbage coin before the price goes up. And once the price starts rising, many people then don’t dare to chase it.

A counterfeit rally is here, and the crypto circle has started rewarding diamond hands!

On July 4th, I said in the square that the next bull market in the crypto world will definitely reward diamond hands. The bull market of 2024–2025 has trained everyone into a short-term trading mindset. “Whoever has vision dies” — everyone has learned to make a little money and run.

So in the next bull market, it definitely won’t play out according to conventional logic. During this period, you can all see it: UNI, ARB, HYPE, LIT, PUMP, NEAR — and a whole series of altcoins have all shown trending moves. If you try to trade the swing, you’ll miss out. In every bull market, the crypto circle can’t simply be used to copy the previous one.

During the 2021 bull market, altcoins delivered tens of times to hundreds of times gains, and everyone was trained into long-term thinking. Then in the 2024–2025 bull market, the “dog庄” (manipulators) didn’t play by the usual rules. Whoever dared to hold with a long-term mindset would lose everything, down to their underwear.

Then the 2024–2025 bull market again trained everyone into a short-term mindset. When the next bull market comes, whoever copies the experience from the previous bull market will directly miss the move. That’s exactly why on July 4th I wanted to express the idea of rewarding diamond hands in the square.

You don’t need me to say how valuable Feige is. You might not understand it right away, but it’s okay—just keep following me and take a closer look over time. After a while, you’ll realize who the real content-with-substance traders are, and who’s truly just big talk with nothing to back it up.

$ETHFI took off 🛫, on September 17th we asked everyone in the community to rotate positions over to it. So far, the performance looks very good. In the secondary market, people still prefer trading buyback-and-burn type altcoins. I especially emphasized the buyback-and-burn type altcoin theme to everyone in my previous livestream—what they are. But in our community, we simply provide the strategy directly so everyone can buy. It’s still the same viewpoint: when the market comes, just seize the opportunity properly. Don’t wait until the very end to chase the price higher and then get trapped near the top. If you don’t trust me, I don’t have the time to convince you. Just take the opportunity and ride the market together with the fans from our community.

In the fourth quarter of this year, several important events in the crypto market

Macro: The Fed already added 25bp in September; whether it will move again later this year depends on what happens next.

BTC holdings structure: The final repayment deadline for Mt. Gox is October 31. Currently there are still about 34,000 BTC left, and how this portion will be released afterward is worth watching.

Regulation: The U.S. midterm elections are on November 3. Crypto legislation itself has not been going very smoothly lately; it’s also worth monitoring whether the policy pace will change after the election.

Mainstream coins: For ETH, Sepolia testnet upgrades are scheduled for October 6, with the mainnet expected to progress in Q4. For SOL, the Alpenglow upgrade is also moving forward. These updates mainly improve performance and confirmation speed. Both events are bullish for ETH and SOL—especially since SOL is approaching this timeline, it may see a round of catch-up rally.