陈嘉冠A

At this early morning, this script
Words become law
Arrangements are clear
BTC has reached 93k ETH has also arrived at 3280 ​​​

Continuing from the previous text
Only then did I say the rebound strength during the day is not strong
Then there was a small rise
Could it be that it's voice-controlled?
The early morning chart is to be savored carefully
BTC↑1.5k ETH↑60
Jia Guan has already taken it out, I wonder how the brothers are doing ​​​

The intraday rebound strength is indeed not strong
The navigation situation is bland
But as we expected in the early morning
The gray area in the picture is to perform low fluctuations
There is no big profit, and the small snacks are not a big issue

BTC附近最大的流动性聚集区位于93k-94K
下$87K是需要关注的区域
但流动性没有那么集中
无论如何价格主要还是在区间波动 ​​​

The probability has reached 89.4%
It can be said that this is the most important FOMC decision of the year
It's coming soon ​​​

BTC price fluctuations are not significant, while the open interest in options is close to historical highs.
This means:
> A large amount of capital is betting on the future trend of BTC
> There is almost no clear direction > A strong fluctuation = some will be violently squeezed
The venue is already full. We are just waiting for the dealer to reveal the cards.

Currently, this period is a volatile market, and the painful reason for everyone recently is that pinning V rebounds are everywhere.
From a structural perspective:
The overall trend is still a downward trend. From the peak of 124 to now, the market has gone through a decline -- consolidation -- decline -- consolidation.
The market is currently in consolidation, and you can see that this consolidation still resembles a bearish flag's prototype, somewhat similar to the last consolidation structure.
With the upcoming interest rate meeting, be aware that once it breaks the trend line and refuses, there will be another downward test.
However, from my personal perspective,
because we are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, the short-term outlook remains bullish unless it breaks down.

The concubine currently follows the big board for 6 hours
It is also a sign of accumulation and breakthrough
However, the upward breakthrough test at 3180 was rejected during the day
Then it fell back to around 3090
Subsequently, pay attention to the gray area that cannot be effectively broken down
You can follow the big board to look for rebounds for a low do
Our target is to look up at 3180-3250 ​​​

The pancake shows a strong potential breakout in the current 6H chart
Overall, it is also demonstrating a buildup for a breakthrough
The intraday rebound to the 92k resistance is effective
If it moves down to around 89k
And does not break the support in the gray area
Then we can look for a rebound to go for a lower entry
Our target resistance is 92k-94k ​​​

The top of the day is here
92k resistance has been indicated
Then also informed about the weekend CME gap
The big coin has arrived as expected↓2k
The same goes for the auntie
On the hourly level, the two breakthroughs testing 3180 were rejected
The right-side performers are the ones who take action ​​​

The above mentioned 92k resistance level
Hourly level has been rejected twice in upward tests
Also indicates to intervene on the right side
Has ↓1k opened an appetite ​​​

BTC has a small CME gap this weekend.
As usual, it's worth paying attention to, but don't get too fixated.

The current plate is accumulating strength to break upward in 4 hours
It has now reached the first resistance near 92k and is oscillating
Stabilization and upward break look at the resistance of 94k
If it fails to break through and is pressed back, then look at the support near 89k below
(Attempt to operate on the right side) ​​​

The Coinbase premium subtly tells us a signal
When the histogram is red, BTC is cheaper on Coinbase > the US is selling/there is no real spot buying.
When the histogram is green, BTC trading price is higher → US buyers start to enter.
The premium is currently hovering around 0%:
There is no panic, but also no complete FOMO.
If the next push towards $97-100K turns the premium strong green, I would consider the breakout to be real.
If it turns deep red again, each rebound is just a withdrawal of liquidity.

Don't rush to shout 'altcoin season' yet! This chart reveals the truth

Yellow = BTC price, Green = total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, Thin line = market capitalization of top 10/50/100 altcoins
The core of this round of increase is BTC dominance — Green basically follows Yellow, with only a brief window for altcoins to have a pulse rally, afterwards, small-cap coins drop even harder (classic bull market hedge: funds flow back to BTC + a few strong coins).

True altcoin season requires three signals:

1. BTC cooling off and consolidating
​
2. Total market capitalization breaks previous high + forms higher low
​
3. The lines of top 50/100 altcoins curve upwards (funds rotating downwards)

Before this, there are only localized narrative opportunities; most altcoins will either fluctuate or decline relative to BTC — this is not the 'all-coin surge' of 2021, still dominated by BTC, and only selected altcoins have opportunities to thrive～

The current 1-hour level of the market style is still in fluctuation
Currently at the resistance level of 91.2-91.7 (potential short entry point)
If it cannot break through, it will still drop to 89K ​​​

The market is still the same.
In the past month, dozens of coins have risen by +20-30%.
At the same time, most coins are in an endless decline, troubled by investors and teams unlocking, deeply trapped holders, and overall weak momentum and sentiment.
This trend runs through the entire cycle, and I feel it will never stop.
Most coins will eventually go to zero.
Some coins will perform well for a while, and then they too will go to zero.
Only a few coins will survive and continue to perform well in the next cycle.
This is the law of the market, and it is the way it will continue to develop.
If you are not willing to rotate and stay flexible in this market, then just hold onto BTC.
Otherwise, in the long run, you are just laying the groundwork for underperformance.

The last few weeks of BTC at the end of the year usually do not have too many interesting price fluctuations.
Except for 2013, 2017, and 2020, overall it has been relatively flat.
Interestingly, the extra day in a leap year usually brings decent returns, which I had never noticed before.
Overall, I don't expect any significant fluctuations to occur until the new year begins.
Typically, the market is quite volatile at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Especially during the Christmas period, liquidity and trading volume are generally very low.

Global liquidity has been rising for the past two weeks.
Coincidentally (though not really), we have seen BTC find its local bottom at the same time liquidity began to rise.
This is a phenomenon we often observe.
I believe that as long as global liquidity continues to expand, BTC will eventually join this frenzy.

The daily level K-line chart comparison ultimately failed to directly break through and fell back to around 88000.
Currently, it is fluctuating around 90,000.
Next week, there is basically no suspense about the US dollar's interest rate cut of 25, and similarly, the probability of a yen interest rate hike next week is also high. With one cut and one increase, the arbitrage returns will obviously decrease.
This will force investors to sell US stocks to buy back yen for debt repayment, with technology and growth stocks favored by carry trade funds in the US stock market being the first to be impacted.
The US dollar's interest rate hike is currently the biggest uncertainty, and once it is implemented, opportunities for a temporary low point will arise. This month is very likely to continue maintaining a bottom range of fluctuations.