夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

Send a small red packet to everyone here
Wishing you happiness every day, smooth investing, and a consistently red account 🧧

👇

币安聊天群

In the group, everyone can chat freely and exchange ideas~ When I have time, I’ll come back to take a look, help answer some questions, and occasionally share some targets I personally think are relatively promising. Let’s discuss and reference together 🤝

Brother Sun's recent situation is a bit risky.
I’ll short $TRX with a small position first.

The public opinion turmoil around Justin Sun has been growing bigger lately. I think for the short term we should pay attention to the sentiment risk of $TRX .

In the past few days, related controversies have continued to intensify, and TRX itself is also around a relatively high level near $0.34. Once the market starts pricing in negative sentiment, this kind of coin that is highly tied to the founder often reacts earlier to price than the fundamentals.

Of course, at the moment I haven’t seen a clear deterioration in TRON’s fundamentals. Even the TRX ETF is still moving forward, so this isn’t a long-term bearish logic on TRX.

I just feel that the risk-reward ratio at this level is starting to tilt toward the bears.

So I’ll short a bit of $TRX with a small position for now. The trade is purely about the short-term sentiment caused by this wave of events continuing to escalate.

If things calm down quickly, I’ll withdraw directly as well.

Bitcoin has recently been something to take note of
ETF funds start showing net outflows

$BTC In this cycle, it has risen from around $60,000 all the way to $80,000. One of the biggest supports along the way has been the continued inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

But the latest data shows changes.

On August 28, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of about $202 million, directly ending the prior streak of 9 consecutive trading days and a cumulative net inflow of more than $3 billion.

Among them, ARK’s ARKB saw outflows of about $115 million, Bitwise’s BITB saw outflows of about $49.7 million, and even BlackRock’s IBIT saw outflows of about $33.4 million.

So lately, I’ll be a bit more cautious about BTC.

A single day of outflows can’t directly indicate a trend reversal, because over the past five trading days overall there was still a net inflow of about $925 million, and the capital position in August is also positive.

What really needs attention is whether net outflows will continue going forward.

If it’s only one day, I’m more inclined to think it’s profit-taking. But if funds keep withdrawing for several days and BTC can’t reclaim $80,000, then any short-term pullback may not be over yet.

$BTC

$BTC broke below 80,000
But this time I’m actually more focused on
Whether it can quickly bounce back

After Jackson Hole, BTC once dropped to around $77,500. It has now returned to about $78,000. The market is mainly digesting the more hawkish signals from the Fed, as well as a cooling of risk assets in the short term.

More importantly, the BTC ETFs that had seen consecutive inflows have started to show about $200 million in net outflows in a single day.

But I don’t think we should turn bearish just because it broke below 80,000.

This rebound in BTC from the lows has already exceeded 20%. Earlier, a lot of short positions were liquidated. Now, a normal pullback can actually be used to test the true spot demand.

Next, the most important thing is whether 80,000 can be recovered quickly.

If it climbs back above that level again, I’d be more inclined to interpret this decline as a high-level shakeout, and then I’d still look for 83,000 to 84,000 afterward.

$BTC #比特币现货ETF结束9日净流入

It's September already

Please cherish your time

The Shortcut King Sun Yuchen Is Now 36 Years Old

Leaving aside what he has now and what he plans to do, in the end all he needs to do is improve his appearance and poise. Then he can get the best physical feel the whole world has to offer.

In my view, Brother Sun has already taken the “shortcut” all the way to the ceiling:

He understands the hot spot, capital, narrative, and exposure—how to use the shortest path to yield the biggest returns.

At this stage, the project and money are no longer the key variables. What can further magnify his advantage by another level is upgrading his external looks and presence: better face-management, a more decisive figure, more restrained poise, a firmer expression, and a more controlled speaking pace.

Because what the public worships is never just profit—it’s also whether he “looks like a king.”

When a person has wealth and dignity, ambition and aesthetics, sharpness and composure all at once, the pressure they bring turns into attraction. Controversies get diluted by their aura, and even suspicions become harder to substantiate.

$TRX $BTC $SUN

Today I’m specifically picking three
I think you can pay attention to the following knockoffs

$ROBO 、$HOME 、$PENGU
Exactly three completely different directions.

$ROBO is currently around $0.0134, with a market cap of about $30 million. I think it’s mainly along the AI robot track; Fabric Protocol is doing things like robots, AI agents, and on-chain payments. The key point is that these knockoffs have already risen in a round recently—it hasn’t really moved much instead.

$HOME is currently around $0.0064. I bought this earlier. What’s interesting is that the protocol uses 80% of its revenue to buy back HOME every week, and since the price has now returned to the bottom range again, I still think there’s room for a catch-up rally.

$PENGU is currently around $0.0098. In the past 7 days it’s already risen by more than 60%. Pudgy Penguins itself has an IP, physical retail, and recent IPO expectations—if the meme sector keeps running, it’s one I’m relatively optimistic about.

One AI robot, one low-market-cap DeFi, and one meme IP—those three are the ones I specifically singled out to keep an eye on recently.

Ushtech is a good company,
but I really don’t recommend chasing this stock price right now.

I’ve actually been quite optimistic about Ushtech long term, and robotics will definitely be one of the most important technology themes in the next few years.

But just because a company is good doesn’t mean any price is worth buying.

Ushtech’s issue price was only 150.8 yuan. On its first day after listing, it surged directly to 1,100 yuan, a gain of over 600%, and its market cap reached more than 440 billion yuan at one point. Even though it has already fallen sharply from the peak, in just a few trading days the stock price has dropped by about 45%.

The most outrageous part is the valuation.

Based on the issue price, the 2025 price-to-sales ratio was already 35.89x, higher than the average 19.74x of comparable companies at the time. After the stock exploded higher on listing, Reuters even calculated that it traded at roughly 857x projected earnings for 2026 at one point.

Ushtech’s growth is of course very fast—2025 revenue was 1.699 billion yuan and net profit was 278 million yuan—and I recognize that.

But if you buy Ushtech now, I think you’re mostly buying the market’s crazy expectations for humanoid robots.

I’ll keep an eye on this company long term, but I won’t chase the stock now. No matter how good the track is, if the price is too expensive, you still have to wait.

$UNITREE #宇树科技上市首日涨629% $ROBO.ETF

SpaceX slips back near its IPO
I still think the valuation is expensive

SpaceX has recently fallen back to around $137, and it’s now very close to the $135 IPO price.

But even after the drop, I still don’t think it’s cheap.

Based on the current share price, the equity value of SpaceX is still close to $1.86 trillion. At the same time, on August 20, about 319 million shares entered a state where they can be sold, and more lock-up periods will continue to expire through 2027.

The company’s growth is indeed extremely strong—its Q2 revenue hit $7.8 billion, nearly doubling year over year, but capital expenditures were as high as $18.4 billion.

So the biggest issue for SpaceX right now has never been whether the company is good.

Of course the company is great; the problem is that the market has already priced in a lot of the growth for many years ahead.

From $225 down to $137, I still don’t think the valuation is cheap. If you really want me to start feeling it’s good value, I’ll keep waiting.

$SPCX $SPCXB

The US hits Iran hard, but crude oil actually falls

This time, the US has launched a new round of economic pressure on Iran. Nearly 60 Iran-related entities have been sanctioned, and it has even warned that countries and companies continuing to do business with Iran may be cut off from the dollar system.

Normally, when news like this comes out, oil prices should rise.

Instead, WTI fell by 2.4% to around $85, and Brent also dropped to around $92.

I think what the market is pricing right now is quite interesting.

People may be starting to believe that, as the US shifts from military pressure to broader economic sanctions, it could actually increase the chances of renewed talks and a cooling of the situation afterward. So some of the geopolitical risk premium is being unwound first.

Iran risk hasn’t disappeared, but oil prices are becoming less sensitive to bearish news. This change is worth watching.

$CL $XAU $BTC

MicroStrategy took a rather unusual action this week.

Last week, the company sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock, but it didn’t buy a single BTC. Instead, it set up a cash pool of about $1.59 billion. Currently, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $75.4 billion.

I don’t think this means Strategy doesn’t want to buy BTC anymore.

The official filings have explained very clearly that this money can be used in the future to keep buying BTC, repurchase shares, or for other corporate purposes—basically preparing ammunition in advance.

Now that BTC has just broken back above $80,000, Strategy has chosen to hold cash first.

I’m actually quite curious: when BTC experiences a big pullback next time, will those $1.6 billion directly turn into buying pressure?

$MSTRB $BTC $CRCLB #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点

$BTC After it recently surged to a high level, it started to range.
But what I think is even more worth watching than the price is the capital flows.

Behind this round of rally, net inflows into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have clearly reappeared, which shows that this time it’s not only the futures market forcing a short squeeze—spot capital is also coming in.

BTC has risen a lot and still been able to stay at a high level—by itself, that’s a sign of strength.

Right now, I actually don’t want it to keep spiking up every day. If BTC moves sideways here for a while, allowing the chips to change hands again, it’s healthier for the whole market.

Especially since many altcoins are only just getting back up from their bottoms.
As long as BTC doesn’t fall back sharply again, the real room for upside later is likely still with the altcoins.

$TRUMP $HYPE

October may be when the main surge wave really starts; this is just the warm-up before the bull market

Lately, I’ve been increasingly feeling that what’s truly worth looking forward to may be October.

BTC rebounded from around $58,000 all the way to nearly $80,000. ETF funds have begun flowing back into the market, the U.S. Treasury has expanded its long-term Treasury bond repurchase program, and the rate-hike expectations that the market is most worried about have started to cool off. On the other hand, Trump continues to push for the CLARITY Act, and the U.S.’s regulatory direction toward crypto is clearly more friendly than in the past few years.

And October has always been one of BTC’s strongest months in history. Since 2013, most Octobers have ended higher, which is why there’s also a term: “Uptober.”

What’s more interesting now is that BTC has already pulled market sentiment back up, but many altcoins are still stuck down at low levels.

If BTC can hold steady in September, and once capital starts spreading from BTC into ETH, altcoins, and meme coins, October may be when this rally truly turns crazy.

$BTC $ETH $PENGU

$SPK I started paying attention—DeFi with real money backing is actually easier to overlook.

Recently I’ve been looking for altcoins that haven’t been pumped too high yet, and I think $SPK can be added to my watchlist.

Spark is no longer just a pure lending protocol. It’s moving toward becoming an on-chain capital allocation platform, deploying capital into DeFi, CeFi, and RWA. According to the official data right now, SparkLend TVL is about $3.55 billion, the Liquidity Layer is about $1.15 billion, and the Savings side still has roughly $2.36 billion.

There’s also one change in August that I’m particularly interested in: Spark is starting to tilt its direction toward B2B stablecoin infrastructure—aiming to build the underlying yield and liquidity tools for fintech companies.

This kind of coin may not be the most likely to get pumped in the short term, but at least the fundamentals have something behind them.

As capital starts rotating through altcoins, I think projects like this—ones with TVL, a stablecoin narrative, and that haven’t been wildly overhyped by the market—are worth taking a closer look at, like $SPK .

$PENGU Recently started moving, and I feel this round of meme coins shouldn’t be missed

$PENGU has clearly seen money returning over the past few days. On August 23, it briefly surged by nearly 14%, and the trading volume expanded rapidly.

I think the biggest difference between PENGU and a typical pure meme coin is that there’s truly an IP behind it that’s already moved beyond the crypto circle.

Pudgy Penguins’ plush toys entered Target stores nationwide across the U.S. in July this year. Before that, they had also consistently pushed physical merchandise, cards, and offline events. Recently, the NFT side has also become active again—weekly trading volume at one point grew month-over-month by about 244%.

So if a second wave of copycats really starts next, I think $PENGU could be brought back into the spotlight easily.

PEPE is purely about memetics, while $PENGU adds another layer: the story of an IP and a consumer brand.

Once something like this meets a meme market, its upside usually isn’t small.

$PENGU

Recently $ENA has truly started moving.

The price has already moved to around $0.18. From the earlier $0.08 range, that’s roughly doubled. In the past week, the increase at one point topped 60%, and trading volume has also clearly expanded.

There’s something behind this rally as well. Ethena just teamed up with FalconX to roll out a $1 billion secured financing arrangement, allowing USDe’s reserve assets to enter institutional loans with excess collateralization. In other words, compared to the previous model that relied on funding rates and basis yields, this adds another source of returns.

Arthur Hayes has also recently publicly reiterated his bullish view on ENA, even mentioning a potential 5x upside. Over the past couple of days, the market has clearly been rehashing and re-trading this narrative.

That said, the short-term move has gotten quite overheated. The 4-hour RSI at one point approached 94, so I wouldn’t directly go heavy chasing at this level.

I’d rather wait for a pullback to look for an opportunity. In this round, ENA has gone from being a coin nobody was watching to returning to the spotlight for capital flows.