夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

$牛来 go

Has the bull market ended?
I think it’s too early to draw conclusions now.

Over the past few days, the crypto market has started to cool off, and BTC has also slipped from above $80,000 back to around $78,000. Many people have already started asking: has this bull run ended?

I don’t think so.

This correction has a very clear timeline: the U.S. CPI on September 11. There is a huge disagreement in the market over whether the Fed will raise rates in September. The previous strong Non-Farm Payrolls data pushed rate-hike expectations back up, so it’s completely normal for funds to reduce risk ahead of the CPI.

More importantly, last week, U.S. BTC spot ETFs actually saw net inflows of nearly $987 million, and they’ve been registering net inflows for the third consecutive week. At least based on this set of data, it’s not something you can directly define as a full-scale capital retreat.

So even though I’ve recently become more cautious and reduced leverage, I’m not turning bearish on the market ahead.

What it feels like now is that we’re waiting for the CPI to reprice the market, rather than having already confirmed that the bull market is over.

If the CPI comes in below expectations and rate-hike expectations cool off, then the macro risks that have been weighing on the market these days could be lifted quickly.

I still look at that level: $BTC as long as it hasn’t effectively broken down below $76,000, I won’t change my view on this cycle for now.

#美国10年期美债收益率创2023年11月新高 #美财政部拟回购最多60亿美元国债 #美国ADP周度就业人数增1.2万人

Yesterday after $LAPTOP went live, the truly outrageous part wasn’t “it fell 99%,” but the valuation in the first few minutes after the open.

On-chain data shows that two minutes after LAPTOP launched, the price briefly surged to over $300. According to The Block, the corresponding market cap even temporarily reached around $300 billion; Arkham’s data, however, indicates the liquidity in the pool was only about $4.8 0万.

This means the sky-high market cap you saw yesterday wasn’t a valuation built up by normal capital buying in step by step.

Liquidity was too thin, and with no mature price “anchor” at the opening, a large number of bots and early traders pushed the price to an extreme level. Then in less than an hour, the price fell from nearly $300 to around $4, and later in the afternoon it dropped further to about $2—retracing nearly 99% from the high.

Some people even snapped up chips at the open and sold them for about $1.18 million within minutes; on the other side, others put in around $200,000 near the highs, and after an hour their position was left with less than $3,000.

So this time my feeling about $LAPTOP is very clear:

Celebrities can instantaneously generate attention, but attention doesn’t equal consensus.

A market where the market cap is inflated to tens of billions or even hundreds of billions by extremely low liquidity at the open, and then completes a 99% drawdown within minutes—I basically won’t touch it.

#Laptop

Bitcoin ETF continues to turn into outflows

Bitcoin is still at $78,000
But a signal has already started to change

Just a few days ago, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw consecutive large inflows; on September 3, the single-day net inflow reached $731 million. But over the past two days, the direction of capital has reversed.

On September 8, net outflows were about $46.6 million, and on September 9 they widened further to $101 million, marking a second consecutive day of going negative. In other words, while the BTC price is still hovering around $78,000, the ETF capital that drove this rebound earlier has begun to cool off.

That’s also why I’ve recently started taking a more conservative approach.

This isn’t about being bearish on $BTC ; it’s just that after a run-up, we’re about to face the CPI and the Fed rate expectation re-pricing again. The price hasn’t shown clear signs of weakening, yet the money has already started to change. In this situation, I’d rather reduce leverage than keep increasing risk.

$76,000 is still the level I’m most focused on. As long as it holds, the medium-term structure shouldn’t have major issues.

$BTC

Recently, my strategy will start to become a bit more conservative.

Cryptocurrencies have been strong for a while, and many altcoins have bounced back quite a bit from their lows. In this phase, I won’t keep increasing risk just because the market is doing well—I’ll gradually reduce it instead.

The reason is simple: the external environment isn’t very comfortable right now.

Oil prices have moved back above $100. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is near 4.84%. Market pricing for September rate hikes is also around 60%. Next, PPI and CPI are about to be released—if any of these data points comes in hotter than expected, rate-hike expectations could be revised upward again.

So lately, I won’t be particularly aggressive in chasing rallies.

Positions that have already made money will continue to be held, but I’ll reduce leverage, keep some cash, and I won’t casually go all-in with my positions.

When the market is strong, it’s not only about thinking how much more you can make. Sometimes, protecting the profits you’ve already earned—and waiting for the market to offer better odds again—is even more important.

$BTC $ETH $SNDKB

The CPI will be released soon these days.

The U.S. August CPI will be released on September 11. The market currently expects a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a core CPI increase of 0.2%. With the previous Non-Farm Payrolls coming in clearly above expectations, the market’s pricing for a September rate hike has already reached around 60%. This inflation data could easily directly change interest rate expectations.

I still have a bullish view on Bitcoin and the行情 ahead, but I won’t open leverage too aggressively over the next couple of days.

You can continue holding spot; for futures, try to reduce leverage as much as possible.

Being right about the direction doesn’t mean the process won’t shake people out. First, survive the data release; then consider how to add positions.
$BTC $ZEC $ZEN

US inflation data is about to be released
If you’re holding cash, remember to reduce leverage

September 11th U.S. CPI is about to be released, and this data is very important. After the non-farm payrolls came in above expectations, market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly increased. Now we just need the inflation data to give the final direction.

I’m still bullish on Bitcoin and this round of the market, so I won’t sell spot just because of a single data release.

But futures are another matter.

Around the time such an important data release comes out, it’s not unusual to see wicks spike 5%-10% within minutes. Even if you get the direction right, if the leverage is too high, you may be shaken out first.

Keep the coins you need to keep. Reduce the leverage that needs to be reduced.

After the data comes out, then decide whether to add back to your position.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC

$IOST At this kind of position, I’m actually more willing to start laying in traps

$IOST Now it’s around $0.0018, already an extremely low market-cap range.

Recently I looked back into IOST again—not because it suddenly added some new narrative, but because it’s now redirecting its focus toward RWA and payments.

The biggest advantage of an established old chain isn’t that the technology is so new. After several market cycles, its trading depth, exchange coverage, and market recognition are still there.

When bull-market capital rotates later on, it often seeks out coins like this—prices low enough, market cap small enough, and yet not completely unknown.

So I’ll hold a bit of IOST.

Not a core position, but the odds I’m getting at this spot— I think it’s worth waiting for one more round of catch-up gains in older coins.

$SC What I’m looking at is an old-school storage coin

An opportunity to be repriced again

$SC is now roughly around $0.001.
In this AI market cycle, everyone is buying compute power and chips, but I’ve always felt that later on, there’s going to be a direction that slowly gets brought back into trading again—storage.

The more data there is, the bigger the models become; the need for storage itself won’t disappear.

Siacoin has been doing decentralized storage for many years. Its biggest problem has never been the lack of products; it’s that the market in the past simply wasn’t willing to value such an old project.

So when I look at SC now, the logic is actually pretty simple:
As AI continues to expand, the storage narrative comes back, and on top of that, in a bull market, old coins rotate back in.

$WLD finally back to 0.43
My dip-buying position has arrived

When $WLD surged toward the $0.50 area earlier, I didn’t chase. Now it’s back to $0.43, and this level is actually the one I’ve been waiting for.

My assessment of WLD hasn’t changed because of this pullback.
What’s truly worth paying attention to with World right now is the “real person identity” demand that becomes increasingly important in the AI era. The more AI Agents there are, the more valuable it will be to prove that an account behind it is a human being—and without needing to disclose complete identity information publicly. The value of that will only keep growing.

And one of the biggest pressures WLD faced earlier is the release of token supply (i.e., chips being distributed). The market has been trading this issue for a long time already.

Why do I feel that $牛来
has a chance to become the next $币安人生 ?

Actually, it’s not because it got listed on Binance today. It’s because I really like the way the chip/holdings accumulation forms before it.

It’s not the kind of hidden-book (insider) trading where it suddenly appears—where a small group gets all the chips early and then uses messages/news to push the price up.

Before the bullish run, the momentum and hype build up little by little—people buy in step by step. I’d rather have a higher expectation for a Meme like this, because its consensus isn’t created by a single announcement out of nowhere.

That’s also why I’m considering putting it together with Binance’s “life”/journey story.

Today Binance listed $牛来

I think there’s a chance it could become the next $币安人生

Yesterday I mentioned on a Binance livestream to everyone that they should buy a little. Today they directly announced the listing on Binance spot. Now its market cap has already been pulled to nearly $100 million.

But at this level, I won’t chase.

After a new coin is listed on spot, the first round of token/chip swapping usually gets pretty intense. I’d rather wait for the hype to cool off a bit and see if there’s an opportunity to get back to a $30–40 million market cap.

If it really gets to that range, I’ll buy back.

$币安人生 currently still has a market cap of around $500 million. If the bull run can later hold onto the hype of the Chinese Meme, $30–40 million is a very comfortable odds range for me.

September 11 U.S. inflation data
I think it will directly affect Bitcoin’s short-term direction

The previous nonfarm payrolls were clearly higher than expected. Now the market’s probability for the Fed to hike rates in September is already around 60%, so this CPI will be especially important.

If core inflation comes in below expectations and rate-hike expectations cool off, Treasury yields should fall as well—this would be a fairly direct positive for $BTC . Conversely, if inflation again exceeds expectations, there will definitely be pressure in the short term.

But overall, I’m still bullish on Bitcoin.

As I said earlier, I think there shouldn’t be too much of an issue as long as it’s above $76,000.

Instead of seeing the volatility caused by CPI as purely negative, I view it as a test. As long as $76,000 holds, I’ll continue to trade in line with the long (bullish) structure.
$ETH $SOL

$ZEC missed out on $1,240?
I started looking for the next one—maybe it's $ZEN

With this round, ZEC has already fully hyped up the privacy track, but what’s really interesting is that capital is starting to spread into the lower-market-cap privacy coins further down the line.

Over the past couple of days, ZEN has clearly begun to surge in volume. Its 7-day gain is already over 50%, but the current price is still only around $7, and its market cap is just over $100 million.

That’s why I started paying attention to it.

Horizen itself is also an established privacy project, and it’s been upgraded to Horizen 2.0—shifting to privacy L3s on Base, continuing to build zero-knowledge proofs and privacy infrastructure.

ZEC has already proven that this narrative can be priced aggressively by the market.

If capital starts looking for the “next ZEC,” then a low-market-cap old coin like ZEN is actually the easiest to get targeted.

I can’t say it’s definitely going to replicate ZEC, but if it really does succeed, then at where $ZEN is now, what the market is likely to trade for won’t just be a 2x.

It could be dozens of times—maybe even 100x.

$牛来 target 1u

Yesterday during the Binance livestream, I happened to mention $牛来 , and I immediately felt like this coin was worth laying in a position a bit.

I didn’t expect that today Binance would officially announce it directly—$牛来 is going to be listed for spot trading, with a seed tag added.

From Alpha to the contracts, and now to spot trading as well—this route has basically been completed.

$ZEC is back near the previous high of around 1240.

My next target is around $1,420.

$ZEC today already reached about $1,264, directly setting a new high for this cycle. It’s still consolidating above $1,200. A few days ago, it fell from 1248 to 1118, but the market recouped that drop in a very short time.

More importantly, the ZCSH asset size has already surpassed $500 million. It currently holds more than 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of the circulating supply. In just two weeks since listing, total net inflows exceeded $70 million, and demand from traditional capital for ZEC is still increasing.

So I won’t take profit just because it’s approaching the previous high.

The previous high has been repeatedly tested. Once the price can hold effectively around 1260, I’ll look first at $1,420 for the next leg.

That’s also why I’ve kept saying: in a bull market, try to hold the coins the market has already chosen. With ZEC, every pullback has buyers, and the price keeps making higher moves. I’d rather keep riding this trend.

After reviewing the earnings of major protocols over the past 7 days
I’m increasingly valuing one thing about DeFi coins:

Whether the money earned by the protocol actually has any connection to token holders.

In this regard, the most direct approach is from $HYPE : over the past 7 days, about $12.1 million was used for buybacks. For PONS, it was about $6.35 million; $UNI about $5.07 million; and $PUMP about $4.3 million. Basically, they send protocol revenue back to the token through buybacks or burning.

Especially PONS—it directly buys back and burns about 80% of its revenue. The project has been live for only two months, and recently, its daily protocol revenue even surpassed PUMP for a time.

That’s also why I’m liking it less and less when people only look at “how much the protocol earned.”

Even if project revenue is high, if the token can’t capture the value, then eventually the project team gets rich and the protocol metrics keep looking better and better—while token holders can only wait for the market to eventually decide to assign a valuation. I’m becoming less interested in coins like that.

CAKE does have buybacks and burns, and it has been net deflationary for 35 straight months. LINK also started using revenue to buy LINK into the Reserve, so it’s not that they’ve done nothing.

But compared with more direct value-capture models like HYPE, PUMP, UNI, and PONS, I still prefer the latter.

Making money for a project in a bull market isn’t unusual. What matters to me when choosing DeFi now is whether they’re willing to truly feed the money they earn back into the tokens.