May seems to be a volatile month. As for the U.S. debt default, everyone knows that the U.S. debt default crisis will be resolved sooner or later, and it will definitely be resolved. It’s just that we don’t know to what extent it will eventually become and to what extent the market’s risk aversion sentiment will ferment.
Therefore, there will still be risks and uncertainties, and the market will still react to them. However, unless the two parties in the United States stage a shocking drama that no one expected, the risks in this regard are likely to have been priced in.
What about June? If the risk of US debt default is lifted and the Fed stops raising interest rates, the market will rebound with double benefits. How much will it rebound? I still remain optimistic in the short term and continue to maintain my previous view that Bitcoin may return to 31K in the short term of two or three months, forming a double top of the bull market. If there are more other positive factors, Bitcoin may even hit 35K.
Therefore, for friends who play altcoins, if they can be sold after a rebound in June-August, they should consider selling. This also includes friends who play Meme coins. Don’t think that you can still stand out when the market is short of money in the second half of the year.
Bitcoin will be halved next year. Judging from the situation, the next bull market will start next year. The second half of 2023 to the first quarter of next year will be the best time to ambush and build positions! If you miss it, you may break your thigh.
According to the last bull market, 2020 was the beginning of the bull market. Do you remember the summer of Defi? At that time, only defi tokens outperformed Bitcoin, and the others were nonsense. However, in the early days of Defi, only a few people rushed in, and the others were conquered by the rise. There was a consensus later. What I remember most vividly was the battle between Sushi and Uni, the scramble for liquidity.
Most of the old altcoins were launched in 2021. Therefore, Bitcoin was the most stable in the early stage, and many people bought it without knowing anything about it. They only knew to rush into the altcoins, but they didn’t see the Bitcoin price increase in the early stage, and they didn’t dare to participate when they saw new things. In the end, the old coins in their hands were sucked out when Bitcoin rose, and the old coins fell when Bitcoin fell. The rise was more than the fall. When they reacted and chased the new coins, they bought Bitcoin, but the rise of Bitcoin reached its limit, and the speculation of new coins reached its limit. In the end, the old coins began to rise, and they were gone.
Let me tell you how I plan to trade in the second half of the year: If there is no major black swan event, the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. The start of interest rate cuts indicates that the US economic crisis has become more serious, and inflation has basically reached the Fed's expectations. Moreover, according to historical laws, risk markets often experience a wave of plunges after the start of interest rate cuts.
Therefore, the actual trading strategy should be to make less efforts in the second half of the year, do less short-term swing trading, and do more research and analysis, not only analyzing value coins, but also analyzing Meme coins, first screen out the targets that are suitable for your investment. Then wait patiently for the price to fall, and start regular investment and buying at a suitable low price range.
From the second half of 2023 to the first quarter of next year, it will be a stage of continuous buying. Needless to say, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as a base position with strong certainty and high security, I will adopt a fixed investment strategy in the second half of the year, and start buying more when Bitcoin falls below 25K.
As for whether to invest in other altcoins, including Memecoin, it depends on each person's investment funds, cycle, and risk tolerance. I will definitely invest and trade. And I think most ordinary retail investors like me will consider building a position in altcoins.
If we only invest in Bitcoin to earn several times the return, we cannot achieve financial freedom and reach the goal of personal class improvement. Only by seizing altcoins and Meme coins can we have the opportunity to become a hundred times richer!
The key to buying promising altcoins that can increase by 100 times, is to ambush at a suitable low price. It is best if the market value does not exceed 200 million US dollars, and 100 million US dollars is even better. The purchase price should be within 2 times the institutional purchase price, or even closer to the institutional price.
Moreover, the cryptocurrency circle prefers new coins rather than old ones, and when choosing altcoins, one must look for the leading coins in the popular narrative track of the next bull market.
I am interested in tracks such as #Layer2, #LSD, #LSDFi, and #AI. Many people have introduced the popular currencies in these tracks, such as $Arb, $Lido, $Pendle, $RNDR, etc. There will also be leading coins in subdivided tracks in the L2 ecosystem, such as $RDNT in the lending category.
There is also the NFT exchange/NFTFi leading coin $Blur. In addition, there are many popular projects that have not yet issued coins. For example, only two of the four major L2 giants have issued coins, and StarkNet and ZkSync have not issued coins yet. It is estimated that they will issue coins by the first half of next year at the latest.
For my position, 50% will be invested in #BTC, #ETH, 30% will be dispersed to 10-15 altcoins, and I will start to invest and buy at the right price. The other 10% will be used to buy Meme coins. The trading strategy is to start investing and buying $Pepe, $Ladys, $Ordi and other Meme coins that may continue to explode in the next bull market after the price drops to a suitable level, provided that the price drops low enough!
Finally, there is 10% cash, which can be kept for speculation in local dogs, memes, NFTs, and for picking up bargains when the black swan unexpectedly drops to an ultra-low price. After all, even if the transaction difficulty may reach a hellish level from the second half of this year to the beginning of next year, there will definitely be continuous golden dogs appearing, and there will also be continuous new hype stories, whether it is Meme or NFT, there will still be many opportunities to make a fortune.
